The Kansas City Chiefs‘ wide receivers always receive plenty of attention, thanks in large part to their quarterback being Patrick Mahomes. However, despite having the best QB in the game distributing the ball, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding this group for a variety of reasons.
The fantasy outlooks of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown all have questions surrounding them.
Will Rice be suspended? Is Worthy able to turn raw athleticism into on-field production? Can Brown overcome a shoulder injury and years of mediocre production to finally break out for fantasy purposes?
Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 262.4 (165.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 96.6
- Receiving Yards: 1147.6
- Receiving TDs: 8.6
Rice finished as the WR27 in full-PPR formats in his rookie season with 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven scores over 102 targets in 16 games.
Now, let’s give this a little more context. Rice never saw more than 60% of the snaps until Week 8 of the 2023 season. From Weeks 8 through 17, he was the WR16 with an average of 15.4 fantasy points per game, which was the same mark we saw from Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown during that span.
Rice’s ADP is one that fantasy managers will have to keep a very close eye on as they enter the fantasy football draft season. He’s currently the WR36 off the board at No. 82 overall. Yet, his ADP would be much higher than a seventh-round pick if he wasn’t potentially facing league discipline for off-field incidents this offseason.
If Rice receives a two-, four-, or six-game suspension before drafts, then his ADP will become far more reliable. Yet, there is no guarantee he will face league discipline this season at all — which would make him a potential league-winning type steal at his current price.
Based on his role and production from the back half of last year, Rice has a low-end WR1 fantasy upside in 2024. Where you would be willing to inherit that risk on draft day is solely up to you.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Xavier Worthy Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 215.4 (144.2 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 71.2
- Receiving Yards: 1067.9
- Receiving TDs: 5.9
This year’s rookie WR class includes several fascinating prospects who are a bit hard to project. Worthy is chief among them.
At 5’11”, 165 pounds, he would’ve been completely dismissed as too small to play in the NFL as recently as five years ago. Now, with the era of the small wide receiver upon us, we are seeing more and more receivers who look like Worthy.
When a wide receiver is that small, he has to be fast. That’s not a problem for Worthy, who broke the 40-yard dash record with a 4.21 at the NFL Combine.
Historically, but especially more recently, rookie wide receivers have been very good investments in redraft leagues. Very few pop right away.
But over the second half of the season, we often see rookies come into their own. Final numbers that look unimpressive can be very beneficial to fantasy managers as they are frequently backloaded.
Worthy’s ADP sits at WR41, No. 94 overall. I have him ranked as WR35. This far down the ranks, that’s not a huge difference, but it’s enough to make it more likely I draft Worthy than not.
I am a big proponent of investing in young players. While Worthy is unlikely to post WR1 numbers in an offense with several playmakers, WR2 value from a guy technically being drafted as a WR4 is about as good as it gets. As a result, I would say Xavier is … Worthy of being someone targeted in fantasy drafts.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Hollywood Brown Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 189.4 (112.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 76.6
- Receiving Yards: 837.2
- Receiving TDs: 4.7
It tends to generate a ton of buzz in the fantasy football community whenever a new veteran WR gets to catch passes from all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Brown is no exception to that rule.
Unfortunately, Brown is coming off of a two-year run with the Cardinals, where he failed to produce a single top-40 fantasy WR season with his former college quarterback. Brown finished 2023 as the overall WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four TDs. Sure, he dealt with some injuries last year, but his average of 9.6 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats over 14 games played is nothing to write home about.
To further dissect his 2023 season, Brown’s 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception — all ranked outside of the top 65 at the WR position — feel like a major disappoint for a player who ranked inside the top 30 at his position in target share and air yards.
Now he is entering an offense with multiple short-area target hogs in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice and could have his vertical shots eaten into by dynamic rookie WR Xavier Worthy — who posted a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, the fastest mark posted by any player in the event’s history.
Brown has also missed the last few weeks with an SC Joint injury that could cost him the first week of the season. He shouldn’t miss than couple of games, so there is no major concern here. However, it is less time that he has had with Mahomes this preseason, and it has given others the chance to stake a claim on his starting role.
Brown’s ADP certainly feels a bit inflated at No. 101 overall, going off the board at the beginning of the ninth round as the WR44. He’s currently being selected alongside the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Keon Coleman.
This price point has fallen since the injury and it is in a more reasonable area of the draft now. It had looked a little high at around 15-20 spots higher overall, considering the other playmakers in this passing offense, Brown’s durability concerns, and the fact he has finished as a top-35 fantasy WR just once in his first five years in the NFL.
I understand playing with Mahomes offers a great fantasy ceiling. However, there is an argument to be made that Brown is the fourth option in this passing game behind Kelce, Rice, and Worthy.
Mahomes is capable of producing historic passing numbers, but I would rather go in other directions at this point in the eighth round.
– Tate