The Miami Dolphins offense is one of our favorites to target for fantasy football, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is a significant component of why we love it. With their “cheat motion” and condensed target scheme, Waddle’s fantasy outlook has many people wondering if this is the year he can take over for the Dolphins and fantasy.
Last year, Waddle’s season was skewed with injuries limiting him to 14 games. Can he help elevate our fantasy team with his average draft position (ADP) of No. 39 overall? Let’s break down Waddle’s fantasy outlook to help you navigate his draft stock in 2024.
Jaylen Waddle’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
With Waddle exiting multiple games while missing others, it’s hard to look at his stats last year and accurately predict what will happen in the future. Waddle saw 104 targets last year (37th-most), producing 72 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four receiving touchdowns.
All three of those stats sit well outside of the top 24 wide receivers in the NFL. TruMedia helps us research a bit deeper into it, though, and we noticed a few things that concern us about Waddle.
TruMedia ranks Waddle 49th overall for air yards per target. His yards per reception (14.1) also make us cautious about the Dolphins’ receiver, as he was 26th overall. Waddle also struggled with creating yards after catch, as his was only 5.8 (39th).
It’s hard to shine when injured but even more complicated when Tyreek Hill keeps you in the shadows. Waddle has excellent speed, but within this Dolphins’ offensive scheme, we must question his ADP as a mistake.
Is Waddle a Good Fantasy Pick?
We believe Waddle is a fade at his ADP this season. The stats above prove that he can have moments of immense talent on the field, but he’s not consistent enough for us to want to draft him at such a high value.
This season, Waddle will have to battle with Hill, a slew of talented and fast running backs, and some minor upgrades like Jonnu Smith and Odell Beckham Jr. His odds of becoming hyper-targeted are slim to none.
As much as we love the draft strategy of taking good players from good offenses, we have to pass in this scenario, especially when we can get players like DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper, and Malik Nabers later on with the same upside.
One of the few positives about Waddle’s fantasy outlook is his bye week. Thankfully, the Dolphins are off in Week 6, so we don’t have to worry about any significant weeks in fantasy football being destroyed by something so cruel as a bye.
We love Waddle’s speed, but at WR21, we’d rather grab someone else and let our leaguemates draft just on name value.
Derek Tate’s Analysis of Waddle’s Fantasy Outlook in 2024
If we compare Waddle’s ADP to just one season ago, then he’s going to feel like a discount at No. 40 overall (WR19) off the board in the back half of the fourth round. In 2023, he had an ADP of No. 22 overall (WR10), which firmly put him in the back half of Round 2.
Has that much really changed to Waddle’s situation from last year heading into this season? My answer is no.
Sure, Odell Beckham Jr., Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington’s additions may give QB Tua Tagovailoa some mildly better ancillary options in this passing attack. Yet, I’m not going to project Waddle losing any significant amount of work to these players in 2024.
Waddle is currently going in the same range as Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith, which makes me feel very comfortable adding him as a high-end WR2 in an elite passing attack with the upside of a WR1 if anything were to happen to Hill.