Facebook Pixel

    Bills WRs Fantasy Outlooks: Should You Draft Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel?

    Published on

    Will Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, or Curtis Samuel have the most fantasy relevance in 2024, and which of them is a good draft-day value?

    The Buffalo Bills shook up their wide receiver core this offseason as they added Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel in place of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. This leaves the group with an intriguing look and uncertainty over whether it will be Coleman, Samuel, or the incumbent Khalil Shakir who will provide the most fantasy football value in 2024. Let’s examine their outlooks and see which is the best draft-day value.

    Keon Coleman’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

    • PPR Fantasy Points: 177.2 (118.6 non-PPR)
    • Receptions: 58.6
    • Receiving Yards: 878.5
    • Receiving TDs: 4.9

    Depending on which aspects of Coleman’s profile you choose to prioritize, you can view him favorably or unfavorably. There is a world where he becomes a reliable outside X receiver for the Bills. If he fails, it certainly won’t be for lack of opportunity.

    Coleman couldn’t ask for much better of a situation. Two of the Bills’ top three target earners from last season are no longer on the team. Diggs and Davis leave behind a total of 241 vacated targets. The only other meaningful addition to the passing game was signing Samuel.

    Samuel may very well out-target Coleman this season, but he’s not about to gobble up more than half of those targets. Even that would be a reach. Coleman is probably not getting half, either. But there are plenty of targets available.

    In an era where rookie WR ADPs are inflated, Coleman’s is quite reasonable at WR45, No. 105 overall. I have him ranked as my WR48, a meaningless distinction this late in drafts.

    Overall, I am not necessarily a believer in Coleman. I buy into the contested-catch thing being an issue. Generally, I will fade that type of player.

    With that said, there is always a chance I am wrong. We should all consider the possibility that our evaluation of players is wrong when we draft, especially in the later rounds.

    Coleman is an unknown. That means he has a wide range of outcomes. As my WR4 or WR5, I’d rather swing at that type of player than draft a more reliable veteran who doesn’t get more than 11-12 fantasy points per game. Even though I don’t think it will work out, I’m willing to draft Coleman at his ADP this season.

    – Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst

    Khalil Shakir’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

    • PPR Fantasy Points: 166.7 (111.0 non-PPR)
    • Receptions: 55.7
    • Receiving Yards: 878.4
    • Receiving TDs: 3.5

    Shakir’s ADP of No. 136 overall (WR52 off the board) means fantasy managers aren’t quite convinced he’ll become a reliable fantasy starter in 2024. For some additional context, he’s actually being drafted right after his Bills’ teammate (Samuel) and right before Romeo Doubs and Mike Williams.

    This is a tricky situation to sort through since, given all the roster changes, we can’t determine how these roles will actually play out this upcoming season.

    We do know that Shakir is a playmaker with the ball in his hands as a RAC threat, though. He displayed noteworthy improvement in his second season and already has rapport built with Josh Allen compared to Buffalo’s other pass catchers.

    Shakir may not be the dynamic vertical weapon that Diggs or Davis were for Allen the last couple of years, but could his role mirror Beasley’s from previous seasons? Yes, I believe that is within the range of outcomes.

    At their current respective prices, I believe Shakir presents a similar amount of fantasy upside to that of his teammates but comes with the best draft value — which makes a discounted way to get a piece of this Bills’ passing game on your fantasy team in 2024.

    – Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst

    Curtis Samuel’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

    • PPR Fantasy Points: 170.8 (100.0 non-PPR)
    • Receptions: 67.8
    • Receiving Yards: 631.1
    • Receiving TDs: 3.7

    While it has been a long time since Samuel and Joe Brady worked together, there is certainly a familiarity with one another that is encouraging, given the number of moving pieces in this Bills offense. Samuel is my top-ranked receiver in Buffalo at the moment, though I don’t see myself being too exposed to him this season.

    His ADP resides in that Round 10-11 neighborhood with Brian Thomas Jr., a rookie receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars who very much fits the mold of a player I like to stash. Jakobi Meyers and Doubs are two other receivers in this range that I prefer to Samuel in my chasing of upside.

    If you do elect to draft Samuel, I’d suggest targeting players with home-run upside in the final few rounds. If he works out, he’s a viable floor play — every good fantasy team has players like that. But it’s also important to swing for the fences when the time calls for it.

    – Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst

    Related Stories