One burning question fantasy football managers have is what to do with Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams after his breakout 2023 NFL season. The addition of Blake Corum paired with Williams’ one year of production has some fantasy managers doubting he can replicate the elite play we saw from him last year.
Can fantasy managers trust Williams as the RB1 on their roster entering the 2024 NFL season?
Kyren Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
To the few who saw Williams as a potential breakout candidate behind Cam Akers entering the 2023 season, then I would like to applaud you. His 1,350 total yards and 15 total touchdowns in just 12 games last year place him in elite territory and should be considered nothing short of outstanding.
Furthermore, Williams was the only running back in the NFL with more total touches (carries and receptions) per game than CMC. For some exact figures, Williams averaged 21.7 touches per game to Christian McCaffrey’s 21.2. If your usage is higher than McCaffrey’s and in the same ballpark as the San Francisco 49ers running back’s elite efficiency, then you are a potential fantasy superstar at the position.
Williams averaged 95 rushing yards on 19 carries and three receptions for 17 yards on a per-game basis in 2023. If you extrapolate those numbers over a 17-game season, then we could be looking at a fantasy ceiling of 1,615 rushing yards, 289 receiving yards, and 51 receptions.
Unfortunately, that isn’t exactly how things work in projections, and doing so would seemingly ignore the addition of Corum altogether.
Speaking of Corum, his presence certainly feels like it is being baked into the draft-day discount for Williams outside of the first round — as it reasonably should to a certain extent. Unless we are expecting Corum to see much closer to a 50/50 split in this backfield, 1,500+ total yards for Williams feels quite feasible based on what we saw from him in 2023.
As always, touchdowns are a bit tricky to project year over year, but the fact Williams scored 15 in just 12 games last season makes the chances of him finding paydirt north of 10 times very much within the range of outcomes if he continues to dominate the volume out of this backfield in 2024.
The involvement of Corum and the question of whether Williams can duplicate the effectiveness he displayed as a ball carrier in 2023 following a largely irrelevant 2022 rookie year certainly introduces some doubt into his overall outlook for the 2024 season.
Yet, Williams’ incredibly efficiency on an elite volume of per-game work last year is something I simply can’t ignore.
Kyren Williams’ 2023 Advanced Analytics Among Qualified RBs (Positional Rank)
- Yards After Contact Per Attempt: 3.34 (6th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 1.68 (5th)
These numbers confirm what I see on tape, which is an elusive back with a great feel for pressing the hole to set up his blockers with excellent vision and patience.
It feels more popular to lean closer to the pessimistic outlook for Williams this year with Corum in town, but what we saw from him on an NFL football field suggests he has a RB1 overall ceiling in 2024 — which isn’t a range of outcomes that is discussed enough regarding his profile.
Is Williams a Good Fantasy Pick?
Williams’ ADP at No. 15 overall in the second round as the RB7 overall off the board suggests that he’s still firmly entrenched as the leading back of the Rams’ backfield entering the 2024 NFL season. For some additional context, Williams is currently being drafted behind Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor at the RB position.
If you are a believer in Corum, then you are likely going to pass on Williams at this price point. Yet, I can’t help but feel like a player we saw average 5.02 yards per carry last season — which trailed only McCaffrey for backs who saw 200+ carries in 2023 — already showed us how much of an elite producer he can be when on the field in this offense.
Personally, I believe Williams’ fantasy ceiling is in the top three at the position. His floor is a bit uncertain with Corum joining the backfield, but I still expect him to lead this backfield in touches in 2024 — which makes him worth the risk as my RB2 in the third round of fantasy drafts.