Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua came out of nowhere to produce a legendary rookie year, which makes him an interesting case study entering his second season.
Can fantasy football managers expect Nacua to either duplicate or improve upon his outstanding rookie season in 2024?
Puka Nacua’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Those who attempted to dismiss Nacua’s exceptional start to the season with Cooper Kupp out of the lineup through the first four weeks of the NFL season likely missed out on a potential league-winning waiver wire addition in 2024.
One does not have to look very hard to see just how elite Nacua’s usage was during his year in the NFL and quickly realize he was an elite fantasy asset for managers.
Nacua’s 2023 stats and positional rankings:
- Targets: 160 (sixth)
- Receptions: 105 (eighth)
- Yards: 1,486 (fourth)
Translation: Nacua was everything fantasy managers expected his teammate (Kupp) would be when they spent first-round fantasy draft capital on the latter heading into last season.
Speaking of Kupp, some may be quick to assume Nacua’s great fantasy production came in large part due to his absurd usage through the first month of the season when the veteran wideout was on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
To be fair, Nacua’s fantasy points per game did drop from 23.9 from Weeks 1-4 to 15.6 from Week 5 through the rest of the season, but it doesn’t take away from how special he was to start his career.
His 52 targets and 39 receptions led all pass catchers in both categories through the first four games of the 2023 campaign. Only Justin Jefferson had more receiving yards than Nacua through the first month of NFL action. This tells us that Nacua has an elite fantasy WR1 overall upside when Kupp is out of the lineup — which is relevant because the veteran wideout has missed 12 games due to injury over the last two years.
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One way to project Nacua’s production would be to take his per-game averages when Kupp was in the lineup — five receptions for 79 yards — and simply expand that out over a 17-game season. Using that method, Nacua could project to around 85 receptions for 1,343 yards, which is still solid but probably not worthy of a first-round pick.
Yet, have we considered the possibility that Nacua could actually get better in his sophomore season?
Sure, Nacua set the bar unreasonably high and Kupp’s presence certainly could limit his ceiling. However, his exceptional ability to destroy zone coverage (a coverage against which Nacua absurdly gained over 70% of his fantasy points) and churn out extra yards as a run-after-catch threat was special in 2023; his 639 yards after the catch ranked fifth at the WR position last year.
Another big factor working in Nacua’s favor is his formation versatility displayed in his rookie year, lining up in the slot 30.7% of the time in 2023.
Nacua picked up a knee injury that has him considered week-to-week. Fortunately, the injury doesn’t appear to be anything serious — but picking a significant enough injury to miss multiple weeks’ worth of practice is always noteworthy.
Ultimately, Nacua is firmly established as a bona fide 1A/1B option in this offense, no matter how you rank these two receivers. He was utilized perfectly by Sean McVay to give fantasy managers a high weekly floor even with Kupp in the lineup, but he possesses an elite ceiling in a pass-heavy offense.
Stay skeptical about Nacua’s fantasy success at your own risk.
Is Nacua a Good Fantasy Pick?
Nacua’s ADP at No. 14 overall in the second round as the WR8 overall off the board suggests fantasy managers are believers in his historic rookie year entering the 2024 campaign. Nacua is currently coming off the board behind A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
In full PPR formats, I would select Nacua at this price point even with the knee injury suffered in training camp. In standard or half-PPR formats, I’m a little bit less excited about this investment due to Nacua still being the second option in the passing game behind Kupp when the Rams get in the red zone.
Kyle Soppe’s Analysis of Nacua’s Fantasy Value
The value of Nacua will be interesting to track this offseason, but it’s clear that the industry as a whole believes in the BYU product.
We saw him getting open in tight windows the second he stepped onto an NFL field, albeit with Kupp sidelined, and we saw him develop scoring equity as the season wore on. Following a three-month stretch from October to December where he scored in just two of nine games, Nacua’s season ended with him scoring in three of four games, including the playoff loss in Detroit.
That game against the Lions is what is fueling Nacua’s first-round ADP in my opinion.
- Nacua: 10 targets — nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown
- Kupp: Nine targets — five catches for 27 yards
Is that a sign of things to come? Is Nacua’s ascent going to be as dramatic as Kupp’s decline? Counting out Kupp seems premature, but your eyes aren’t lying to you — Nacua checked every box, and then some, as a rookie. With Matthew Stafford still responsible for getting him the football, a monster 2024 season seems likely.
Last season, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 2,522 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 receptions — is that a crazy projection for this Rams tandem?
If Nacua were to account for 55% of that production, you’re almost getting a carbon copy of what we saw during his rookie season.
- Nacua’s 2023 stats: 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns
- 55% of Eagles duo: 103 catches for 1,387 yards and eight touchdowns
Does that make him a first-round pick? That stat line would, but there is certainly some risk you are taking on by labeling Nacua as the clear-cut WR1 with Kupp healthy. Drafters are plucking him off the board ahead of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, two receivers whose role is not a question.
Nacua has the production floor over those two WR1s, and I don’t think he’s a bad way to start your build, but I’d be more likely to wait the 2+ rounds and bet on Kupp. Naturally, you have to be comfortable with the health of Stafford — without the veteran under center, neither Nacua nor Kupp will return on your investment.