Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes let fantasy football managers down a season ago, but hasn’t he built up enough equity with us that we can overlook a single underwhelming campaign?
The Chiefs’ roster looks a bit different this season than how 2023 ended, and that has him ranked among the elite at the position — is he worth it?
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
While the lack of consistent pass-catching help didn’t stop the Chiefs from repeating as NFL champions, it certainly frustrated managers who invested draft capital in Mahomes. His 27 touchdown passes were 10 fewer than any of the three previous seasons, and his 7.0 yards per attempt were a career low.
Mahomes’ raw skills didn’t decline, and he set a career-high in completion percentage (67.2%), but Rashee Rice’s light usage in his rookie season and the managing of Travis Kelce’s load kept his upside in check.
How much did it cap Mahomes’ potential? Those were the only two Chiefs to clear 460 receiving yards or 53 targets.
Mahomes also only had two games with 3+ touchdown passes (including the playoffs), a 10% rate that underwhelmed compared to his 44.8% over the three previous seasons.
MAHOMES BEHIND THE BACK 🫢
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Kansas City managed to win a title despite the lack of support for their future Hall of Famer, but their offseason actions suggest that the Chiefs are aware of the weight it put on Mahomes’ shoulders.
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They made Xavier Worthy (75-1,014-5 at Texas last season) the 28th pick of the NFL Draft and inked Hollywood Brown (91-1,008-6 in 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens). At the very least, Kansas City intends to create the balance that this team had behind two-star pass catchers in 2021 when Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 101 catches and 1,261 yards.
Of course, Rice’s situation looms, and you could argue that Mahomes has less support without him than he did a year ago. Thankfully, we should have clarity on his legal issues far before draft day, as that result holds Mahomes’ Tier 1 status in its hands.
Is Mahomes a Good Fantasy Pick?
If you squint hard enough, you can poke holes in the other QBs that are drawing the attention of drafters in the early rounds.
- Maybe the loss of weapons hurts Josh Allen
- Maybe the major upgrade at RB lowers the ceiling of Jalen Hurts/Lamar Jackson
I don’t really have those concerns for Mahomes. Kansas City is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in pass rate over expectation (again), and all of the moves made by the team this offseason only help the fantasy stock of their QB.
The Chiefs drafted Worthy and brought in Brown to occupy a receiver room that was effectively vacant last season outside of Rice. Those are clear additions that will fill an area of need, but what impact will cornerback L’Jarius Sneed’s departure have? Might this defense take a baby step backward and thus put more pressure on Mahomes to put points on the board?
A statistical rebound seems like a near certainty assuming health, and that’s comforting with an early third-round pick. I wouldn’t fight you if you said that the athletic marvels at the top of the QB board offer a higher ceiling, but I find it hard to believe that the drafting of Mahomes undoes your season in a big way.
I find myself landing in the second tier of fantasy signal caller (specifically Kyler Murray) more often than the first tier, but that’s more of a roster construction thing. Mahomes is the best player in the game today and should put up big numbers at the right time (Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers to close the fantasy season).
Jason Katz’s Analysis of Mahomes’ Fantasy Value
For the first five years of his career (excluding his rookie year, where he backed up QB Alex Smith), Mahomes never averaged below 20 fantasy points per game. Last season, he averaged just 18.4 points per game, finishing lower than the overall QB6 for the first time in his career (QB10).
Earlier in his career, Mahomes’ best skill was his deep ball, but 2018 was a long time ago. NFL defenses have shifted and now focus on taking away the deep ball, largely because of his and Tyreek Hill’s success. As a result, Mahomes averaged a career-worst 7.0 yards per attempt last year.
Mahomes also threw a mere 27 touchdowns. This is after throwing no fewer than 37 in each of the previous three seasons.
Did Mahomes get worse? Well, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. I don’t think so. The issue was almost exclusively the lack of quality players around him.
In the regular season, the Chiefs scored a mere 37 offensive touchdowns. By comparison, they scored 59 in 2022 and 53 in 2021. Saddled with the worst wide receiver corps of his career, Mahomes couldn’t be as prolific as he was when Hill was out there. He couldn’t quite even be as good as he was with JuJu Smith-Schuster as his WR1.
Mahomes’ ADP is QB2, No. 28 overall. It’s the lowest of his career, excluding his first year as a starter. I have Mahomes ranked as my QB3. But, as always, whether fantasy managers should draft Mahomes with a premium pick depends on how the draft board unfolds.
There are a lot of talented QBs with a ton of upside going much later. With that said, Mahomes’ upside is the overall QB1. He’s capable of throwing for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. Always consider opportunity cost, but Mahomes is a very enticing selection in the fourth round of fantasy drafts.