The Kansas City Chiefs underperformed relative to market expectations in 2023 and still won the Super Bowl. That is quite alarming for the rest of the league.
The combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is already among the greatest ever. If you add in the other core pieces like Steve Spagnuolo, Chris Jones, and Travis Kelce, you could argue this is one of the greatest dynasties ever.
Kansas City Chiefs Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +500
AFC Odds: +300
AFC West Odds: -260
Win Total: 11.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -600/+425
Chiefs Offense
The Chiefs were only ranked 11th in EPA (Expected Points added), 13th in passing, and 19th in rushing. I say only because this is the worst offense of the Mahomes era.
Since 2018, the 2023 Chiefs rank 103rd out of 192 teams. This is also the only Mahomes-led Chiefs offense to have negative EPA per game. For context, all other Chiefs teams in that span rank in the top 15, including No. 1 (2018) and No. 3 (2022).
This season, the Chiefs added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy without losing any receivers of major value. This should help Mahomes tremendously, as pass-catching was definitely not a Chiefs strength last season.
The biggest issue, however, was offensive tackle play. Per Tru Media, of the 195 offensive linemen with over 200 pass-blocking snaps, Donovan Smith ranked 10th in pressures allowed per game, and Jawaan Taylor ranked 19th.
As a whole, the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked 13th lowest in pressure percentage allowed. Yet, they ranked second lowest in sack percentage due purely to Mahomes’ magic.
Rookie Kingsley Suamataia will look to improve the offensive line for 2024.
Chiefs Defense
Other than Mahomes, the Chiefs’ defense was the key to their second straight Super Bowl victory. They ranked fifth in defensive EPA, in large part due to incredible corner play from L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie.
Losing Sneed will definitely hurt, but they still retain the rest of their stars, including Jones, who ranked second amongst defensive tackles in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.
One Betting Trend To Know
Last season was the first time in recent memory that the Chiefs have gone under their win total, finishing with 11 on a projected 11.5 win total.
Best Bet for Chiefs in 2024
It’s really difficult to get good value on bets for the Chiefs right now.
Despite a three-peat never happening, Vegas knows this is the closest we have ever been. Unfortunately, I just can’t bet against Mahomes in the playoffs until another team proves it.
Mahomes has lost three playoff games in his career — one in the Super Bowl was against a ridiculous defense when his offensive line was completely decimated. The other two came in overtime in AFC Championship Games, one of which he never even got the ball to begin with.
Give me the Chiefs +500 to win the Super Bowl.