The Indianapolis Colts went 9-8 and were a dropped pass away from winning the division. Given the context of injuries, 9-8 is absurdly impressive.
FTN’s Aaron Schatz calculates the aggregate impact of injuries for teams in a given season. The Colts ranked second in QB Adjusted Games Lost, fifth for RBs, first for TE, eighth for DB, and seventh overall.
This team showed lots of fight last year, and Shane Steichen proved he has the chops to be a head coach in the NFL. In 2024, all eyes will be on Anthony Richardson. The Colts will go where he goes.
Indianapolis Colts Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +7500
AFC Odds: +3500
AFC South Odds: +340
Win Total: 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +140/-175
Colts Offense
In the very small four-game sample of Richardson starts, the Colts’ offense averaged 0.80 EPA (Expected Points Added) per game, which would be good for the 10th-best in the league. In all games, the Colts ranked 16th overall, averaging -1.68 EPA per game.
In typical Chris Ballard fashion, he re-signed the homegrown talent. This bodes well for the Colts because continuity is important, especially in Year 2 of a new system.
Per SumerSports, the Colts had the eighth-best (out of 158) offensive line combination in the league in EPA while on the field. The Colts’ offensive tackles — Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith — were both in the top seven in PFF Grade last season. This is promising, considering Raimann wasn’t a part of the offensive line combination that ranked eighth.
Overall, this offensive line returns all five starters plus some solid backups and now gets a full season with both Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the field together.
The most important addition to this offense is rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, who looks to be second on the depth chart while Josh Downs gets healthy.
Colts Defense
The Colts somehow ranked 19th in the league in defensive EPA, despite being ravished in the secondary with injuries. This is because of a defensive line that finished fifth in sacks per game last season, averaging three a game.
On that defensive line, Deforest Buckner is the star, ranking fifth overall among defensive tackles in pass rush win rate. Alongside him is Grover Stewart, who ranked third in run stop win rate among defensive tackles.
It gets even better when you consider edge rushers Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam get plenty of one-on-one matchups because of this interior. Ebukam ranked 16th overall in pass rush win rate among edge rushers, and Paye has steadily improved each season he has been in the league.
Even further, the Colts drafted Laiatu Latu in the first round of this year’s draft. PFF data shows Latu as having the second-highest pass rush win rate among notable first-round edge rushers from 2014-23. Trailing only Nick Bosa, Latu ranked above Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, and Chase Young, who were all top-five picks in their respective drafts.
If the secondary can take a step forward, this defense could look to be very formidable next season.
One Betting Trend To Know
Since 2017, there has been at least one quarterback each year to improve their EPA by at least 50 from one season to the next. These quarterbacks have all been in Year 2 or 3 prior to the start of the season, made a recent addition to the wide receiver room, had average to below-average EPA the prior season, and have been drafted in the top two rounds of the NFL Draft.
Best Bet for Colts in 2024
I like the Colts to make the playoffs at +140. PFN has the Colts ranked eighth in terms of the easiest schedule.
It is well known the gravity and impact elite rushing quarterbacks provide for a team’s rushing attack.
Since 2018, the Baltimore Ravens have had three of the top five seasons in yards per rush, and the Philadelphia Eagles have two of the top 20. In rushing EPA, this trend is even more apparent as the Eagles have two of the top seven, and the Ravens have three of the top 10.
No. 1 is the Colts in 2021, when Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,800 yards. Now we get to see him with Richardson, one of the fastest and strongest quarterbacks ever.