Working out who are the right players to draft in fantasy football sounds easier than it actually is. With so many factors going into a draft, it is crucial to have a clear idea of who you want to draft.
Therefore, we have five players for you to target during your fantasy drafts across the RB, WR, and QB positions.
Which Players Should Fantasy Managers in Drafts?
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Let’s call Walker what he is — a home run hitter. He is capable of breaking any game open on a single carry, but he’s just as likely to set your drive back with consecutive stuffed runs.
Last season, among 35 running backs that carried the ball 150+ times, Walker ranked:
- 29th in percentage of carries that gained yardage
- 10th in percentage of carries that gained 10+ yards
Given the positive reviews coming out of Seattle this summer, I’m tempted to think that the Seahawks toy with the idea of giving Walker the one thing we need: consistent opportunities.
For his career, when Walker has played at least 47% of the offensive snaps, he’s given us 16.2 PPR PPG. That would have ranked as RB8 a season ago and is the type of breakout that I view as possible.
Even if you like this offense to bounce back, it will need to control the tempo if it wants to compete. It’s possible that the majority of Seattle’s games this season will come against a top-12 offense — two each against the 49ers and Cardinals, in addition to games against the Dolphins, Lions, Falcons, Bills, Jets, Packers, and Bears.
Shootouts are not how the Seahawks are going to compete.
The splash plays will come, and Walker’s near 6.0 yards per target average across his two seasons is another path for him to reach 300 PPR points in 2024.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
I’m not a doctor, nor do I pretend to be one. But the outlook from a health perspective seems pretty straightforward: Chubb will be eased into action at some point early in the season, and he will ramp up as the weeks melt away.
The Browns have a perfectly placed bye week (Week 10), thus allowing them to potentially unleash their All-Pro in the late stages of the first half of the season, giving him an extra week to make sure that all boxes are checked.
What do you have to lose with your eighth-round pick?
I’m in love with how Cleveland’s schedule plays out from a game theory standpoint. Sure, you might not get much in the way of usable weeks before Halloween, but coming out of that bye, it could be wheels up in a major way.
In Weeks 11-14, Cleveland plays nothing but run defenses that ranked 18th or lower in preventing running back yards after contact. I’ll give you one guess as to who leads the NFL in yards gained after contact since Chubb entered the league:
- Chubb: 3.94
- Derrick Henry: 3.92
- Tony Pollard: 3.53
After that stretch, the Browns finish with games against elite offenses (Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami, and Baltimore) that even their elite defense can’t completely slow down, meaning a run-heavy script as the weather turns.
The only thing less fun than trying to tackle Cubb is trying to tackle Chubb in frigid conditions where Cleveland is motivated to continue to have him pound the rock.
From a role standpoint, there should be zero concerns. I know Jerome Ford had his moments last season, but they were just that – moments.
Over the past two seasons, 49 running backs have at least 200 carries, and Ford ranks 49th in percentage of carries that have gained yardage (71.7%). He’s dead last, and it’s not even close (next worst: 76.2%).
Juxtapose that to the leaderboard of running backs since 2020 who have produced above fantasy expectations given where their carries come on the field, and you’ll understand my point:
- Chubb: +24.9%
- Christian McCaffrey: +18.3%
Don’t overthink this. Chubb is a strong buy at this price point if your goal is to win your final matchup of the season. If it’s not, you’re playing the wrong game.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
In a season that he entered without a well-defined role and a rookie QB, Collins posted five top-five weeks and was the second most efficient receiver in a pair of predictive metrics (fantasy points over expectation and yards per route run).
Just 12 months later, he is positioned to be the alpha receiver in an offense that is led by the second favorite to win the MVP this season and has gone on record saying he wants to throw deep more often this year. What’s not to like?
“Target competition” is the excuse I hear most when my optimism around Collins does not match, and while I understand the concern, are we sure it’s valid?
Stefon Diggs saw his deep efficiency dip by over 19% last season from his first three with the Bills, and Tank Dell is under 170 pounds — a physical profile that has seen just one receiver over the past decade earn 100 targets in a season.
Collins won’t come cheap in your draft, but he’s cheaper than he should be.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley finished last season with a viable stat line (76-1,016-8), and that is essentially the role that Thomas walks into as a rookie.
Yes, Thomas is a supersized option, and height alone doesn’t mean big plays. But it’s certainly a good place to start.
Size matters.
Top rookie WRs over the past 20 seasons with the guys earning over 6 targets per game highlighted.
This is a Brian Thomas Jr. tweet (ADP: WR50 … pushing my Top 30)#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/wpBzDcLewK
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 20, 2024
Thomas scored in the 99th percentile during the pre-draft process this summer (a metric that blends size and athletic measurables), and if he assumes even 70% of Ridley’s usage, that gets him those six targets we need for him to join the class mentioned above.
Trevor Lawrence ranks second in deep pass attempts over the past two seasons, and the drafting of Thomas, along with the signing of Gabe Davis, implies that the Jaguars are going to continue to encourage him to chase chunk plays.
You don’t have to like Thomas nearly as much as I do for him to be a bargain at his current cost.
Kyler Murray
For his career, Murray averages 41 opportunities (pass or rush attempts) per game, and it’s not a leap at all to assume that those chances to rack up fantasy points will be as valuable this season as ever before.
I encourage you to think about how rare the set-up for Murray is. How many QBs that you expect to rank top-10 in rushing yards have a two reliable pass catchers?
Jalen Hurts does.
Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence don’t.
Lamar Jackson is on the fence, depending on how you feel about Zay Flowers, but I’d happily take the Cardinals’ top two over that of the Ravens.
Maybe Caleb Williams does, but the point remains that it’s an exclusive club that is certainly a part of.
In addition to fitting the profile that we want, the schedule runs out in a favorable fashion.
We generally look for a bye during the second half of the season, with warm weather games down the stretch and the toughest divisional opponent scheduled for Week 18, after most fantasy champions have already been crowned.
Murray is priced at the end of Tier 3 at the position, a tier he could easily lead in points.