NFL Preseason Week 3 Friday Picks and Predictions: Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy Set To Start

We head into the second day of the final weekend of the NFL preseason, and we have three games to keep us busy.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Atlanta Falcons before the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off. And then, the San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders finish off the day.

Let’s examine what we know heading into these games and what it means for us when we make preseason picks and predictions.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Picks, and Predictions

• Spread: Jaguars -7
• Moneyline: Jaguars -325, Falcons +260
• Total: 35.5

This game will see two coaches taking very different strategies to the final week of the preseason.

The Jacksonville Jaguars gave Trevor Lawrence and their starters last week off, but will have them play this week. Head coach Doug Pederson told reporters, “You’d love to get maybe two quarters out of them.”

In contrast, the Falcons will not use their starters in this game, matching what they have done in the first two weeks.

In the first two games of the preseason, the Falcons have scored 25 points while allowing 33. Meanwhile, the Jaguars scored 20+ points in both of their outings, 26 with Lawrence starting the first game and 20 last week without him. The Jaguars’ defense has allowed just 20 points in total across the two games.

All of that fully explains why the Jaguars are seven-point favorites, but that might not be enough.

It is tough to project the Falcons to score much more than 13 points, while the Jaguars should be in the region of 20 if things go similarly to the past two weeks.

Projecting that score out takes you very close to the 35.5 total, so it is hard to make a call either way on the total.

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Falcons 13
Pick: Jaguars -7

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Predictions

• Spread: Buccaneers -3
• Moneyline: Dolphins +136, Buccaneers -162
• Total: 37.5

The situation in this game is a little up in the air for both sides.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have said that healthy starters will play, but Baker Mayfield told reporters that he does not expect to play much. Meanwhile, the Dolphins appear to be taking a case-by-case basis to their starters. We likely won’t see Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as both are dealing with injuries, but we don’t have a concrete picture outside of that.

Last week, the Dolphins’ backups could only manage six points against the Washington Commanders, but the week before, they scored 20 points against the Falcons. The Dolphins’ defense has been very good this year, only allowing 19 points in total across the two games.

The Buccaneers’ backups on offense have been pretty poor, scoring just 24 points across the two games. There is a chance that Mayfield only plays one series, so that may not alter much. Their defense has been solid, allowing a total of 34 points.

All of this points to a relatively low-scoring game. The total is somewhat concerning, just based on whether both teams give their starters some extended time.

Similarly, the spread is hard to play with that uncertainty. I am going to take the total and lean toward the Dolphins getting the three just because their backups might be better than the Buccaneers. However, I am not putting my money on Skylar Thompson and Mike White.

Prediction: Dolphins 14, Buccaneers 13
Pick: Under 37.5; Lean Dolphins +3

San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Picks, and Predictions

• Spread: 49ers -7
• Moneyline: 49ers -325, Raiders +260
• Total: 32.5

These two teams will take different approaches to the final week of preseason.

The Las Vegas Raiders have already revealed that they will not be using their starters this week. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers were still planning to use their starters the last time that Kyle Shanahan spoke to the media.

If that holds, then the 49ers will understandably be considerable favorites. However, we also know that Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are extremely unlikely to be on the field. Even with Brock Purdy playing last week, the 49ers only scored 16 points, taking it to 29 in total for the preseason while allowing 27.

It is hard to see the Raiders mustering too many points, but the 49ers themselves are only averaging 14.5 in the preseason, and that seems unlikely to jump massively this week.

This has the feeling of a low-scoring game, but the total takes that into account. It is hard to make a firm bet on anything here, but I lean to the Raiders +7 and under the total.

Prediction: 49ers 16, Raiders 10
Pick: Lean Raiders +7; Under 32.5