The Houston Texans won the division in 2023 after placing last the previous year. This is something that happens almost every year because the NFL is a parity-driven league. Led by C.J. Stroud, the Texans are poised for a competitive and contentious 2024.
Houston Texans Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +1600
- AFC Odds: +850
- AFC South Odds: +105
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over -140/Under +120)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -190/+150
Texans Offense
The Texans’ offense was not nearly as impressive in numbers as it was in terms of media hype. Per TruMedia, the Texans ranked 15th overall in EPA (expected points added) and 12th in passing. Where they really struggled was running the ball, ranking 25th in rushing EPA.
They added Joe Mixon and lost Devin Singletary, which can be seen as a slight loss overall. Singletary had a slightly higher rushing-yards-over-expected and overall efficiency as calculated by Next Gen Stats. This was in spite of facing eight or more defenders in the box 8% more often than Mixon.
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The highlight of this offense comes from Stroud. Despite the offense only hovering around average, Stroud posted the sixth-highest EPA per dropback in the league. Since 2000, this is the seventh-highest mark by a rookie quarterback with over 250 passing attempts.
The love for this offense doesn’t stop there. Of players who ran over 250 routes in 2023, Nico Collins was second overall, and Tank Dell was 17th overall in yards per route run. This doesn’t even include new addition Stefon Diggs who had a down year and still managed 28th overall. Expect lots of three-man passing sets for the Texans next year.
Texans Defense
I am extremely excited to watch the Texans’ defense in 2024. They are only ranked 16th in overall defensive EPA, 19th against the pass, and fifth against the run. The individual stars on this team, however, are very bright. Per ESPN, Will Anderson Jr. finished third among edge rushers in pass rush win rate. This isn’t due to weaker competition either, as he was double-teamed 23%, good for the top 10 in the league.
Anderson Jr. also ranked second among edges in run stop win rate despite getting double-teamed 16% of the time (more than anyone else in the top 10). They also have the 2022 third overall pick — Derek Stingley Jr., who had a much improved second year and is primed for a breakout and ascension to the top of the league in cornerback play.
The Texans did lose a key pass rusher in Jonathan Greenard but replaced him with Danielle Hunter. Another tough loss for the defense was Sheldon Rankins among the interior defensive line, who Folorunso Fatauski and Denico Autry will replace.
One Betting Trend To Know
Of the six quarterbacks ranked ahead of Stroud in all-time rookie seasons by EPA per dropback, three of their teams hit the over on their win totals the next season, two hit the under, and one pushed. Extending this to the entire top ten, these teams are 5-3-1 in favor of the over, with Stroud yet to be determined.
Best Bet for the Texans in 2024
I like Anderson (+2000) or Stingley (+20000) to win DPOY. Either of these options provides insane value for two players who were incredible in college, have shown flashes in the NFL, and are on an up-and-coming team with lots of potential. As for the entire team, it wouldn’t hurt to sprinkle in a lower amount on the Texans to win the Super Bowl (+1600). They are a legit contender this season.
Jason Katz’s Texans Best Bet
Pick: Texans to win the AFC South (+105 on DraftKings)
Interestingly, I think the wrong team is the second favorite to win this. If not the Texans, my bet would be on the Colts.
Nevertheless, these odds don’t accurately reflect how good the Texans are; C.J. Stroud is already a top-five quarterback. Perhaps there’s some expectation they take a step back after severely overperforming in his rookie season. I think the opposite.
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As great as Stroud was, he’s still getting better, and this team is getting better. I’m in the camp that Stefon Diggs isn’t that good anymore, but he’s still capable of catching passes and being a reliable underneath option. He will make this team better, as will Joe Mixon.
Trevor Lawrence has to be one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL. The Jaguars are -155 to miss the playoffs for a reason. I bet that, too (albeit at -120), for what it’s worth.
I believe we are about to embark on a decade-long stretch of the Texans dominating the division. We will look back on +105 at the end of the year and for years to come and wonder how the odds were ever so good.