New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave was a popular breakout candidate last year. While he took a nice step forward from his rookie season, he didn’t quite live up to his average draft position.
Is this the year Olave makes the leap into the ranks of top wide receivers? Should fantasy football managers target him in drafts before the 2024 NFL season?
Chris Olave’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
Was last year a disappointment for Olave? Well, yes and no.
From the perspective of expectations in fantasy against reality, yes.
Olave was supposed to make that leap into the ranks of WR1. Instead, he “only” averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game.
The reality is that Olave still made that interim step forward, setting the stage for him to ascend further this season — if his offensive situation allows it.
One issue we don’t have to worry about is talent. Olave averaged 2.08 yards per route run, good for 21st in the NFL despite just 8.1 yards per target.
Olave was third in the league with over 1,000 unrealized air yards. He saw over 30 deep targets, the fourth most in the league; he just didn’t catch many of them and left at least three or four long touchdowns on the field.
Additionally, there’s room for his 25.2% target share to grow. That figure for top NFL wideouts typically hovers around at least 25%.
In an offense like the Saints, where no one else threatens for targets, a player of Olave’s talent is capable of pushing for 30%.
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Imagine Olave with a target share that ticks up a couple of percentage points, plus actually connecting on a couple of those long shots that just missed. Even a slight improvement would push him from mid-WR2 to low-WR1.
The Saints have a bye week in Week 12.
Is Olave a Good Fantasy Pick?
Last year, I was all in on Olave.
While he didn’t cost me any seasons, he didn’t quite work out as expected. The last thing I want to do is abandon my guy because he was merely good, not great.
Now, to be fair, there has been another price increase. Olave is going off the board as WR11 — exactly where I have him ranked.
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Unfortunately, the nature of modern fantasy football is the community is a whole lot smarter than it used to be. We don’t get discounts for talented players who underperform, and we have to pay for breakouts in advance.
The good news with Olave’s breakout is it’s not purely projection. We’ve seen the signs. We just need Derek Carr to play better.
I am optimistic that Klint Kubiak’s arrival as offensive coordinator will benefit the team across the board. The Saints should utilize more pre-snap motion and make more creative offensive plays.
While Rashid Shaheed is a nice player and Alvin Kamara is still there to catch checkdowns, neither of these guys is a true target earner like Olave.
Even if nothing changes, I like Olave at his price. The prospect of more creative ways to get him the ball only has me more bullish on the Saints WR making that true third-year breakout.
