The Detroit Lions are finally a viable NFL franchise again. After years of pain and suffering, the team’s fans can finally turn on the TV and watch a competitive and fun product.
After the Lions lost in the NFC Championship Game to the San Francisco 49ers, it seemed likely that star play-caller Ben Johnson would leave to become a head coach elsewhere, a development that would have impacted their ability to sustain success in future years.
However, Johnson ultimately decided he wanted to run it back in the Motor City, which puts me back on the Lions bandwagon.
Detroit Lions Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +1200
- NFC Odds: +550
- NFC North Odds: +135
- Win Total: 10.5 (Over -135/Under +110)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -245/+195
Lions Offense
The Lions started the 2021 season 0-8 while ranking 30th in offensive EPA (expected points added). Then, starting in Week 9, head coach Dan Campbell assumed play-calling duties, while Johnson moved into the passing-game coordinator role. They jumped up to 17th overall, improving by 4.32 EPA per game.
Fast forward to the last two years of Johnson at the helm of play-calling and the Lions are fifth in that time frame. The Lions’ coaching staff is consistently performing at high levels in a myriad of metrics. Per SumerSports, Campbell ranked third in 2022 (2023 data not publicly available) in win probability added over expected. This metric takes into account decision-making on fourth down, extra-point attempts, timeouts, and delay of games.
A top-tier offense can be achieved in many ways, but two forward-thinking strategies are gaining traction for their effectiveness: motion and formation width. Both approaches excel in manipulating predictability, a key factor in offensive success.
Pre-snap motion, for instance, allows offenses to identify subtle defensive cues, such as alignment shifts or whether the defense is in man or zone coverage. Similarly, tighter formations increase unpredictability for defense.
According to The Wall Street Journal, offenses average 7.7 yards per play when using condensed formations while passing the ball 49% of the time, a full yard more than when using spread formations. In contrast, spread formations see a higher pass rate of 77%.
Condensed formations also enhance the running game and facilitate play-action passes, a staple of the Shanahan offense, which occurs on 44% of passes in these formations, compared to just 7% in spread formations.
The Lions ranked fifth last year in motion rate and had the fifth most condensed formations as well. Luckily for the Lions, much of the same offense from last year is still intact. They lost Jonah Jackson on one of the league’s top offensive lines, but they replaced him with the more-than-capable Kevin Zeitler.
Lions Defense
The Lions’ defense ranked 24th in 2023, making it extremely impressive that they were able to make it as far as they did in the playoffs. General manager Brad Holmes recognized these weaknesses and did everything in his power to fix them. Rookies Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr., along with Carlton Davis III, have been added to the secondary.
While not as good at the catch point, Davis was around the 70th percentile in preventing separation last season, according to Judah Fortgang of PFF. Another significant addition was DJ Reader on the defensive line, considering ESPN‘s pass-rush and run-stop win rate metrics show the Lions ranked 26th and 31st, respectively, last season.
While both Reader and Alim McNeill primarily play 3-tech, McNeil shines against the run; Reader can do both, making them a dangerous duo. This is the proverbial cherry on top for a defensive line that has Aidan Hutchinson rushing off the edge as well.
One Betting Trend To Know
In Campbell’s tenure as head coach with the Lions, they have been a house against the spread. Since 2021, they’ve covered in 68.6% of their games, ranking first in the NFL over that span.
Best Bet for Lions in 2024
Since 1995, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks that account for over 10% of their team’s salary cap average 0.16 EPA per dropback during the season. This number is weighed down heavily by an injury-riddled Peyton Manning, whose leadership and a talented defense were just enough to get the Denver Broncos a win in Super Bowl 50.
Not including that team, the number jumps to 0.19 EPA per dropback. Jared Goff’s career average is 0.09, with his best figure in that category being 0.20 in 2018.
It is more than possible to win the Super Bowl with Goff as your quarterback. While he struggles against Cover 2 (33rd of 35 qualifying QBs in 2023 against it), the Lions have surrounded him with enough pieces to succeed.
While I wouldn’t guarantee anything, I believe you are getting positive expected value by taking the Lions to win the Super Bowl (+1200), to win the NFC (+550), or to win the NFC North (+135).
Kyle Soppe’s Lions Best Bet
Pick: Lions to win the division, with either the Packers (+320) or Bears (+450) to finish second.
Much like the AFC East, this division features three teams that figure to push for a postseason berth. For me, the excitement surrounding the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears comes with the hope that they can be what the Lions already are. Detroit knows exactly who it is — this was a three-win team just three seasons ago before winning nine games in 2022 and 12 a season ago.
The Lions should come out of the gates strong (favored by an average of 4.8 points through September) and finish their season with a home game against the Minnesota Vikings. I have them labeled as the class of this division, and while you could bet them to win the North (+135), I feel just as strongly about Minnesota being the worst team in this division.
By placing a pair of bets, I’m leveraging my two strongest takes in this division to get more bang for my buck than simply betting my confidence in Detroit.
Give me the Lions to win the division and either the Packers (+320) or Bears (+450) to finish second.