As the landscape continues to evolve, so do strategies. Zero RB is one form of roster construction that has gained steam.
Every good fantasy football manager understands that their strategy is fluid and must evolve as the draft progresses, but the idea of getting creative with filling your backfield slots has been popularized due to the nature of the position.
What Is Zero RB?
The term itself doesn’t come with a concrete definition. The idea behind it is simple: drafting a roster without running backs longer than most.
The exact number of rounds in which you wait to draft your RB1 varies from draft to draft and season to season. The standard logic is to fill out the majority of your starting lineup (at least three receivers, a quarterback, and a tight end) before attacking the running back position.
Again, not every league is the same, but the logic is there — embrace the variance of the RB position, dominate the other positions, and take calculated chances later in the draft as you chase upside.
Mid-Round Zero RB Targets
For the sake of argument, I’m using the sixth round as the first time I’m looking at the position. Variations of this style (Hero RB has you draft a star running back early and wait even longer before addressing your RB2 roster spot) exist and can be optimal based on your specific draft room. But for this exercise, we are going full Zero RB.
Before I get into some of the names, the strategy portion of things needs to be addressed. You’re not simply drafting the best running backs or the ones who project most favorably. You need a mix of players who can help you out of the gate as well as those who stand to gain value with time.
Handcuff running backs are great for this build, but a roster with five handcuffs is going to struggle in the early going with no promise of ever rebounding. Zero RB teams that succeed at a high level mine enough production through September to buy time for their fliers to earn more work.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (6th Round)
Zamir White touched the ball 20+ times in the final four games of last season, as the Raiders experimented with him as their lead, knowing that Josh Jacobs wasn’t long for Sin City. White had a 25+ yard rush or 3+ receptions in each of those contests, showing enough to profile as a bell cow in 2024.
White’s profile overall last season wasn’t overwhelming, but he did rank better than Jacobs in fantasy points compared to expectation behind the same offensive line. All signs point to the Raiders being a conservative offense that is more interested in bleeding the clock than getting into a shootout, something that helps stabilize White’s floor.
From a strategic point of view, you can get away with White as your RB1 in a Zero RB role for a few reasons. He checks the box of early production (Las Vegas doesn’t have their bye week until Week 10), and he’ll be given every chance to rank among the elite in the percentage of team carries.
Backing up White is Alexander Mattison, 38th of 39 qualified running backs since entering the league in fantasy efficiency. The former Minnesota Vikings RB hasn’t averaged even 4.0 yards per carry since 2020.
It’s rare to get this sort of volume in the middle rounds, and while White doesn’t offer much in the way of highlight potential (7.7% of carries gained 10+ yards last season, ranking in the 20th percentile at the position), he’s a good bet to do all that you need in this roster construction.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (8th Round)
First things first, Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring injury during the second week of the preseason, leaving his status entering the season up in the air.
That’s less than ideal, but I’m okay with betting on this role and, likely, embracing a discount as the biggest draft weekend of the summer approaches.
With each passing season, Najee Harris’ metrics slide. His PPR fantasy points per touch have declined each year, and he failed to gain yardage on 19.2% of his 2023 carries, easily the worst mark of his career.
Betting on Warren, however, isn’t just a bet against Harris. Warren’s been the more explosive back during his two seasons (5.1 yards per carry and an 83.2% catch rate), which has resulted in a consistent role.
Warren doesn’t have the path to elite work like White, but the good faith he’s built with Pittsburgh’s franchise assures that he (if healthy) won’t be scripted out of the game plan.
In drafting Warren as your RB2, you get access to a reasonable floor with role growth potential, not to mention contingent upside. There are plenty of ways for him to return value at this price point, and he fits the mold of someone who has a Day 1 role that you can feel okay about starting.
A nice little bonus is that Pittsburgh has a Week 9 bye. That may not sound like much, but the San Francisco 49ers are the only other team with that week off, meaning you’ll have plenty of active players to plug in for when Warren is out of your lineup. That’s playing a little bit of chess to checkers, but micro edges matter when taking a swing at a fragile build like this.
Stay up to date on the news. Soft-tissue injuries are scary, and if Pittsburgh takes a cautious approach, I’d pass. That said, the market will adjust, and this is a profile I want exposure to.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (8th Round)
It’s been a topsy-turvy summer for the Denver Broncos backfield, but water seems to have found its level with Javonte Williams again projecting for a favorable role in an offense that might offer more upside than many assume under Bo Nix.
I didn’t write the book on Zero RB. However, if I did, Williams’ profile would be featured in a big way. Everything that has him available in the middle rounds is everything I want to target for this build.
- Uncertainty under center
- Lack of role clarity
- Recency bias
With a rookie quarterback set to start the season, the instinct is to limit your expectations of Denver’s offense as a whole. I’m not saying that’s wrong, but we don’t know that it’s right. In acknowledging as much, we realize that there is offensive upside that isn’t being accounted for by most.
First-year quarterbacks have proven pro-ready at a higher rate now than ever before. What if, with Broncos head coach Sean Payton as the puppet master, Nix has this offense trending toward above average. They were less than 1.0 points per game from being such last season in a year where everything seemingly went wrong.
The lack of clarity and recency bias tie into one another. Williams was the least efficient fantasy running back to get 200+ touches last season, and that has a way of sticking with people — not only when it comes to how the industry views him but also how the market views the potential of his backups to usurp him.
Pre-injury Javonte Williams was pretty, pretty, pretty good pic.twitter.com/SQ2yXEWlKr
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 5, 2024
Yes, Williams was awful last season. But he was also coming off of a knee injury.
Now, he’s trending close to full strength and projects to be featured in an offensive scheme that has been friendly to running backs in the past.
We live in an instant-gratification world — are we just forgetting that Williams was very good as a rookie?
In Weeks 7-14 of the 2021 season, Williams posted four top-10 finishes and ranked eighth in scoring at the position (total PPR points). Over that stretch, he was rushing for a touchdown every other week and had a 20+ yard touch in four straight games.
The bearish case on Williams is simple but flimsy and very much baked into his asking price. At this ADP, what do you have to lose?
Williams is a small miss, big hit investment, which is exactly what Zero RB managers should be targeting (three straight bottom-11 EPA rush defenses to close out the fantasy season: Colts, Chargers, and Bengals).
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (9th Round)
Ambiguous backfields are unappealing to most, but for Zero RB managers, they’re gold.
Cincinnati spent a fifth-round pick on Chase Brown in 2023, and he showed well in his limited opportunity (5.8 yards per touch). The Bengals saw something they liked in him coming out of college, and with Joe Mixon now in Houston, the stage is set for Brown to produce in a big way.
Zack Moss was brought over from Indianapolis to compete for this role, but a two-year, $8 million deal doesn’t exactly guarantee him the lead role to open the season. At worst, we are looking at a 40% share for Brown, but given his explosive potential, that could be enough to pay off his asking price.
But what if Brown continues to rip off chunk plays and assumes control of a backfield in an offense that we expect to rank among the 10 most potent in the NFL?
In his final season at Illinois, Brown averaged 29.6 touches per game, which has my attention in a major way. Coin-flip committees are common in this area of fantasy drafts, but there are very few running backs with proof of concept when it comes to being able to handle a significant role increase. Brown is the exception, and when you factor in the potential for him to end up being featured, he’s a pretty easy click at this point.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (10th Round)
I’m not sure that Jerome Ford is a great player, though that doesn’t exclude him from being a fantasy asset. I’m of the belief that Nick Chubb can round into form late, but there’s certainly a world in which that doesn’t happen, and you’re getting a bell-cow RB outside of the top 100 players.
Even if Chubb beats the recovery timelines, Ford will still be an asset through September, and that holds more value to Zer -RB drafters than others. The ability to secure early-season touches allows your team to stay afloat while you wait for your lottery tickets (keep reading) to work their way into roles that matter.
Ford is a strategic pick. A Zero RB strategy can go off the rails if a team starts slow and the manager attempts to pivot by forcing a trade or panicking on the waiver wire.
In theory, you’re managing backwards in this build. Most managers peak early and try to hang on late. You’re the opposite, and Ford gives you locked-in September production that you can feel good about in the second half of your draft.
Zero-RB Targets, Late Picks
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
Almost every late-round flier you’re looking at is going to require one very specific running back to get dinged up, thus opening the door for your sleeper to produce above expectations.
What if I told you that I could double your odds?
Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have profiles with injury red flags. If either were to miss time, Jaylen Wright vaults into the Flex conversation.
The Dolphins have a bye in Week 6, making late-season fatigue for their co-starters, in my eyes, even greater come fantasy title time in December.
Last season, we learned what a prospect with elite speed can do in this motion-based offense, and that potential is more than worth a dart throw in this situation. I don’t love that Miami closes the fantasy season with San Francisco and Cleveland, but we can’t be too picky. The upside is too much to ignore.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
There are handcuff running backs that you can take late, but not all RB2s are created equal. There are the Mattison types that would step into a viable role if the starter goes down but come without much upside outside of an injury. Then, there are options like Tyrone Tracy Jr., who could steal the lead gig sans injury.
Devin Singletary has yet to be anything special across his five NFL seasons despite playing for high-powered offenses in Buffalo and Houston. I think we can agree that the Giants won’t be threatening defenses the way those offenses have, giving them every reason to extend the rookie’s role if things aren’t working out.
Tracy averaged 6.4 yards per touch last season at Purdue and seems to have won the RB2 role thanks to a strong camp. It’s pretty clear that New York isn’t in a position to win now, which gives them every excuse to feature their fifth-round pick as the season wains to see what they have.
That’ll work. Tracy is a long-term play that could see his role peak at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
- Week 16 at ATL
- Week 17 vs. IND
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
The case for Ray Davis is very different from that of Tracy, but that doesn’t make him a bad option. Buffalo and Joe Brady love James Cook (as they should). That said, there was clear hesitation to hand him the ball in close, making for a profitable role for the 220-pound rookie to step into.
Josh Allen was featured around the goal line after Brady took over Buffalo’s offense in the second half of last season, and the concern is that we will see more of the same in 2024. That’s possible, but is it not possible that Brady went that direction with his play-calling last season to stop Buffalo’s spiral and get them into the playoffs?
My working theory is that Brady will be less inclined to put Allen in harm’s way this season. Buffalo was in desperation mode at 5-5 when Brady took over last season (fresh off of a Monday Night Football home loss as a 7.5-point favorite to the Broncos), and Allen was the simplest option. With a full offseason and fourth-round draft capital spent on Davis, I’m very intrigued that this could be the TD vulture to roster in 2024.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
We all have faith in Chicago’s offense taking a big step forward, and Khalil Herbert is the cheap way to get exposure that I have my eye on.
D’Andre Swift was used as a workhorse last season by the Philadelphia Eagles, and he looked good doing it, making most forget that fragility was a concern during his time in Detroit. But after one season, are we ready to call him an ironman?
I’m not.
Herbert has been the 13th-most efficient fantasy RB since entering the league, producing a higher percentage of his expected PPR points than Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and, yep, the aforementioned Swift.
I think there’s a world in which Herbert carves out a 10-touch role that gives him the chance to make your lineup, even with Swift active. If he were to assume the lead role due to injury, Herbert would grade as an RB2 for me, regardless of matchup.
The kicker? That “regardless of matchup” note won’t matter if this is Herbert’s gig late.
The Bears finish the fantasy season with the Vikings, Lions, and Seahawks, a run of matchups in which a featured version of Herbert could potentially push for a top-15 rank for me at the position.
