Once upon a time in the world of fantasy football, Elijah Moore produced an encouraging rookie campaign with a terrible quarterback that suggested he could eventually emerge as a potential breakout wide receiver entering the 2022 NFL season.
But after two seasons of failing to produce a top-50 finish at WR, the veteran appears to be a fantasy afterthought going into his fourth year in the NFL.
Should managers have any optimism regarding Moore’s fantasy outlook in 2024?
Elijah Moore’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Moore had his fair share of big moments in his rookie season with the New York Jets, producing 43 receptions for 538 yards and five touchdowns in just 11 games while playing with Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco under center.
Since then, Moore has done very little to show he could be that type of producer on a per-game basis as a complementary second option in an NFL passing attack.
Once Garrett Wilson stepped in, Moore dropped down the depth chart. He caught just 37 passes for 446 yards and one score over his 16 games played in 2022.
Fortunately, he was traded to the Cleveland Browns before the start of the 2023 NFL season. This actually gave fantasy managers some room for optimism before Moore’s third year, playing with Deshaun Watson as a potentially great second option to Amari Cooper.
Moore’s move to Cleveland did help his target share by a considerable margin, as he saw a career-high 104 targets last year. Yet, he still finished the year outside of the top 50 at WR with just 59 receptions for 640 yards and two scores.
One could make an argument that Moore was one of the least efficient receivers in the league last year. Of the 35 wideouts who saw 100+ targets in 2023, Moore finished dead last with just 7.8 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats.
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If the volume was projected to stay the same as last year, one could make a case he has some sneaky fantasy upside in 2024. Unfortunately, the Browns traded for Jerry Jeudy this offseason, which makes Moore the fourth option in the passing attack behind Cooper, Jeudy, and David Njoku.
Moore is still a gifted route-runner with plenty of vertical speed, but his lack of efficiency and a potential drop in volume for a passing attack that likely isn’t going to finish inside the top 10 in the league means Moore could trend in the wrong direction in Year 4.
Moore’s ADP is essentially non-existent at No. 337 overall as WR123 off the board, which means he is going undrafted in the overwhelming majority of fantasy drafts entering the 2024 NFL season.
Does this feel potentially a bit disrespectful for a player who saw 100+ targets last year? Yes, but Moore simply didn’t do enough with those looks to inspire fantasy managers’ confidence that he will make the most of them.
Do I believe Moore is a good football player? Yes. Does that mean he is necessarily a good fantasy option in 2024? No.
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If you believe the Browns’ passing game could explode this year with improved play from Watson paired with an intriguing collection of playmakers at his disposal, then taking a flier in the final round of your draft on Moore is fine.
I, on the other hand, will find myself going in another direction late in drafts with players who have potentially better situations in offenses that aren’t quite as crowded as the one we see in Cleveland entering 2024.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insight on Elijah Moore
Projecting Cleveland’s offense is an inexact science. Their pass rate over expectation took off late last season, but that came with Joe Flacco under center and Nick Chubb sidelined.
The hope is that, for the majority of this season at least, that neither of those things is true.
Deshaun Watson is a gifted player, but what he brings to the table is drastically different than the pocket-locked Flacco. Watson has struggled to stay on the field over the past three seasons (12 games played), and in those games, he’s struggled to hit the broad side of a barn (59.8% completion rate after completing 70.2% of his attempts in his final season with the Houston Texans).
If you’re interested in Moore’s post-hype season, you’re going to need to buy a bounce back. In consecutive seasons, over 45% of his routes have come from the slot, a spot he can succeed in and provide PPR value.
Not only do you need Watson’s accuracy to tick back up, but you also need Moore to assume this role. Jerry Jeudy was added from the Denver Broncos this offseason, and he’s been in the slot for 56.6% of his routes over the past two seasons.
I’ll pass.
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Instead, give me a similar player in Greg Dortch who plays on an offense I have more confidence in and has less slot target competition. Dortch is a slightly better version of the Moore profile for me, but if you want to pivot off of a floor play, the number of options grow.
Jalen McMillan and Tre Tucker are two receivers with far greater per-target upside and some contingent value. Both play with a pair of receivers who will soak up over 40% of the targets, but there is contingent value at play should an injury occur.
Those are the darts I prefer to throw at the end of fantasy drafts. Moore’s ceiling isn’t all that high from a skill standpoint and, in my opinion, he’d need a Jeudy injury (15+ games in three of four seasons) to flash the elevated floor that comes in the best-case scenario.
Keep an eye on Moore’s usage with time. Maybe he emerges as “the guy” in the slot and that puts him on the waiver wire radar. That said, I’m happy to wait to invest as opposed to tying up a roster spot entering the season.
