The NFC South features several talented running backs, and our best bets for the division focus heavily on that position. On top of that, we look at the potential for Bryce Young to have a bounce-back season after getting a new head coach in Dave Canales this offseason.
What Are Our Top Picks for All Four NFC South Teams?
Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Bijan Robinson to lead the league in rushing yards (+1200 at Caesars)
I bet this a couple of months ago on Caesars. I just didn’t understand why the odds were so long. It’s very difficult for most backs to contend for the rushing title because 300-carry backs are mostly a thing of the past.
Last season, Christian McCaffrey led the league with 1,459 rushing yards. Bijan Robinson averaged 4.6 yards per carry while playing with Desmond Ridder at quarterback and for one of the most frustrating head coaches in NFL history.
The Falcons’ offense will be much improved with Raheem Morris as head coach, Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator, and, most importantly, Kirk Cousins as quarterback. They’ve made it abundantly clear they plan to feature Bijan Robinson heavily.
Robinson has the talent to average over 5.0 yards per carry. If he can get to around 5.5 while also handling 270+ carries, he will be in the conversation.
I only see six or seven running backs who have the talent and the volume potential to contend for a rushing title. Somehow, Robinson’s odds are the longest. Yes, please.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Carolina Panthers
Pick: Bryce Young to pass for over 3,200.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
If there’s anything we can agree upon, it’s that the Panthers are going to be playing from behind. Last season, of the 35 quarterbacks that threw 200 passes, Young led the way with 84.1% of his fantasy football production coming when his team was trailing.
Fantasy points, of course, aren’t only yards, but the idea that only two other QBs had even 69% of their production come in such spots points to how advantageous of a spot Young is in to check the volume box.
In any “over” bet, ideally, you want volume and efficiency. I can’t promise the latter, but a Year 2 jump is common among quarterbacks, and the odds of him making a leap are far greater with Dave Canales at the controls. He was the offensive mind behind the only 4,000-yard seasons for both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, magic that we need just 80% of to cash this ticket.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
New Orleans Saints
Pick: Alvin Kamara to have over 625.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Someone is going to have to explain this line to me. Assuming Alvin Kamara makes the roster for the Saints, 625.5 rushing yards seems too low of a line. He has topped that mark in every season of his career despite missing games each time.
Since his rookie year, Kamara has averaged over 50 rushing yards per game year after year. Based on that, he needs to play 13 games in 2024 to ensure he hits this mark.
When I look at New Orleans’ depth chart, I do not see where the competition is coming from. Jamaal Williams did not provide a threat last year, and Kendre Miller does not seem to be a major concern.
To get to 625.5 yards at a conservative 3.7 yards per attempt, Kamara needs 170 carries. He has not fallen below that since that rookie season.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Rachaad White to score under 5.5 rushing TDs (-115 at DraftKings)
Does Rachaad White impress you as a short-yardage grinder?
Yea, me neither. Five of his six rushing scores last season came from inside three yards, a fortunate happening that is more than something I’m comfortable projecting.
White ranked 38th of 44 qualified running backs in yards per carry after contact. Again, he doesn’t fit the profile of an RB who racks up short touchdowns. However, he fell into them last season, impacting his projected total for 2024.
I’m not here to say that fourth-round pick Bucky Irving will soak up a ton of usage, but Mayfield ranked second on this team in rush attempts a season ago. White’s value to the Buccaneers comes as a pass catcher, not a runner.
Maybe they ramp up their play-calling (15th in pass rate over expectation last season), Perhaps they look to see if Irving can give them more juice between the tackles and go with two-RB sets as they get closer to the end zone.
Either of those situations is fine by me. White averages 3.7 yards per carry for his career and has scored once every 57.3 carries in his two seasons. If the Bucs opt for creativity, we are sitting pretty, but this ticket could cash without it (he went five straight games without a rushing TD early last season and finished with one score in his final five).
– Soppe