The future is here. The Chicago Bears returned Caleb Williams, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and a 2025 second-round pick for the first overall pick in 2023. With a defense that looked great in the latter half of the 2023 season and a trio of receivers that are going to boost Williams, the Bears are here to ensure Bears betting lines hit.
Chicago Bears Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +3500
- NFC Odds: +1500
- NFC North Odds: +275
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over +120/Under -150)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -110/-110
Bears Offense
The new offensive coordinator for the Bears, Shane Waldron, was the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks from 2021-23. In those three seasons, his pass rate over expected was positive in 2022 and 2023, ranking ninth and eighth in those seasons, respectively. This is important because passing matters most in the NFL, especially when adjusting for the situation.
In those same seasons, the Bears ranked 27th and 32nd, respectively. Williams is being put in a position to succeed in many ways, and it starts with the coaching. Adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to this receiving room will also pay dividends. Out of 443 receivers with over 30 targets in college last season, Odunze ranked 15th in yards per route run at 3.09.
Bears Defense
The Bears traded for Montez Sweat in Week 9 of 2023. From then through the end of the season, they ranked sixth overall in defensive EPA per play. According to Judah Fortgang of PFF, Jaylon Johnson was the difference maker in the secondary, ranking fifth in separation prevented in man coverage.
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Justin Jones being the only notable loss for the Bears going into 2024 is valuable, but they are going to need consistent play from the pass rush. Playing in a division with Ben Johnson, Kevin O’Connell, and Matt LaFleur calling plays is always difficult, especially when you are ranked 21st in blitz rate per dropback.
One Betting Trend To Know
k-NN clustering is an algorithm designed to group data points together by finding their closest “neighbors” based on their patterns and makeup. I used this algorithm to determine the most similar supporting casts to the current rookie quarterbacks. For Williams, the closest supporting cast comparison was the 2012 Cincinnati Bengals with Andy Dalton. The Bengals’ win total was eight and they went over with 10.
Best Bet for the Bears in 2024
Williams is +135 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. With such a strong supporting cast, historical evidence that supports the idea of the Bears passing a lot, and a strong quarterback bias, this is fantastic value. The longer shot that still has value is the Bears to make the playoffs (-110). While the division is tough, Minnesota just lost some key pieces, and the Bears’ schedule isn’t the toughest.
Kyle Soppe’s Bears Best Bet
Pick: Caleb Williams to lead rookies in passing yards (+100 at DraftKings)
This market is priced differently depending on the book you use, but anything under -140 has my attention. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are the other two rookies most likely to assume control of their respective offenses from the jump, making this something of a three-man race.
J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye have the potential to make a splash, but if we are talking a 4-6 game head start, I have a hard time thinking they factor into this wager.
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Forget the advanced analysis for a minute — how many reliable NFL pass catchers does Williams have access to?
We can’t include a rookie in the answer, but I’d say that he has more proven commodities (four) than Daniels and Nix together (two?). Williams owns an athletic profile, but no one is going to argue that a higher percentage of his offensive output will come on the ground than Daniels’, thus opening us up for cheap passing yards instead of designed QB runs.
Even if you think this is tight down the stretch — I don’t think it finishes that way. Rookies tend to improve with time, so the fact that Williams closes his season with seven of eight games against below-average pass defenses from a season ago in terms of yards per attempt gives me confidence that he can push down the gas in December to win us this bet.