Much like general managers in the NFL, having a top-five pick in a draft can be a blessing and a curse for fantasy managers.
While you have a chance to take a player who could dominate fantasy football leagues, a bad draft pick at that position could put your fantasy team behind the eight ball for the season.
Which Players Should You Consider Picking No. 3 Overall in Fantasy Drafts?
WHO SHOULD BE WHICH PICK?: 1st | 2nd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th
Having the third pick in fantasy drafts leaves managers with many options. Depending on the league format, you could just about have your choice of quarterback, a multi-dimensional running back, or a wide receiver who should be the league leader in either yards or touchdowns, if not both.
For this discussion, we’ll look at the best options for fantasy managers picking third overall. In 1QB formats, the choice here would typically be whoever is left over from CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, or Tyreek Hill, and then the next best running back, which is typically Breece Hall based on current ADP.
Later in the article, we will also look at two QBs who could be in consideration as the third overall pick in Superflex formats, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Usually, we would see Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts selected as the first two picks in a Superflex league, leaving you with a choice of a QB, McCaffrey, Lamb, or Hill at the third pick.
Here’s a look at some of the options you would have with the third pick in your fantasy draft in a 1QB format.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy managers interested in the San Francisco 49ers running back already know he is coming off arguably the best season of his career. McCaffrey led the NFL with a career-high 1,459 rushing yards and also had a league-leading 21 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2023.
McCaffrey also led the NFL in touches (339) and yards from scrimmage (2,023), and his 6.0 yards per touch was the second-highest figure of his career.
The reigning AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year is simply at the height of his excellence. He is a near-lock to score a touchdown each week, as he did in 13 of his 16 games last season.
The main concern around him is simple — it’s hard to replicate such dominance. How many players have ever put up numbers like McCaffrey did last season in consecutive years?
In addition, the 49ers’ offense remains loaded. Brock Purdy has become an elite fantasy quarterback, and San Francisco continues to boast some of the best skill-position players in wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle. The future of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is worth monitoring as well, considering it could also impact McCaffrey’s touches in one direction or another.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
If there was a distinction of Most Likely To Be the First Wide Receiver Selected in Fantasy Drafts, Lamb would most likely qualify.
Lamb is coming off a 2023 season in which he led the NFL in targets (181) and receptions (135) while also ranking second in receiving yards (1,749), despite that latter total qualifying as the ninth-most receiving yards in a season in NFL history.
He is a worthy candidate to be taken No. 3 because he has seen his numbers improve every season of his four-year career. Lamb’s targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions have all increased each season. And at just 25 years of age, there’s no reason to expect a downturn anytime soon.
Making his numbers even more impressive is the fact that while he had the most targets in the league, Lamb also set a career high in catch percentage (74.6%) in 2023. Getting thrown to more and catching three-fourths of those passes is a good recipe for success, particularly in fantasy football.
In terms of scoring, his 12 touchdown receptions were a career high and one off the NFL lead. He also added two rushing touchdowns.
One factor that bears monitoring is his training camp holdout. While it’s safe to assume Lamb will return before the start of the regular season, the timing of when he does make it back on the field could impact his performance if he doesn’t get a suitable number of practice and/or preseason reps before the start of the season.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Entering last season, Hill had mused about reaching 2,000 receiving yards as a goal for the 2023 season. But while he ultimately fell a couple hundred yards short, it was by no means a down season for the veteran wide receiver.
Hill finished 2023 leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,799), receiving yards per game (112.4), and touchdown receptions (13). And for the fifth time in his eight seasons, Hill had a catch percentage of 69% or higher (69.6% last season).
He also remains one of the league’s top deep-threat receivers. Of his league-leading 13 touchdown receptions last season, nine were 25 or more yards, and six of the 13 were 40 yards or more.
The Miami Dolphins do not appear to be losing any luster from their high-octane offense, either. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season (4,624) while running back Raheem Mostert had a league-best 18 rushing touchdowns.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Based on current ADP, the majority of the time, it is either McCaffrey, Lamb, or Hill going in the top three. The only time you may deviate from that is if there is a specific positional value you want. For example, if you are set on a RB in Round 1, then taking Lamb or Hill may not be appealing. In that case, Hall would come into the equation.
After an injury derailed his rookie season, Breece Hall came back in a big way in 2023. He finished second at the position in PPR scoring with 290.5 total points at an average of 17.1 fantasy points per game. The hope is that his ceiling could be even higher with Aaron Rodgers healthy all year.
Having Rodgers at QB should free up Hall to have more space to make plays, with opponents respecting the Jets’ passing game more. Additionally, he also has Rodgers setting the offense and calling the audibles under center. All of that should contribute to Hall having an even bigger season in 2024.
Who Should Go No. 3?
In 1QB leagues, the natural pick is just to take whichever of McCaffrey, Lamb, or Hill is left. Those three have been established as a clear tier ahead of the next group, and understandably so. The drop-off from McCaffrey to Hall last year was huge, so if CMC makes it to the third spot, it is hard to consider a different WR over him.
Similarly, the gap between Hill or Lamb and what you can get at WR in the back end of the second round is bigger than the difference between Hall and the equivalent RB. There is a solid pool of RB talent for fantasy managers to consider with the 22nd pick of the draft. That is not to say there are not good options at WR, but the drop-off is just a little bit steeper at WR than RB.
Who Are the Superflex Options at No. 3 Overall?
Patrick Mahomes
If you’re in a league that values elite quarterback play, Mahomes may be your best option with the third pick. Assuming Allen and Hurts — QB1 and QB2 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Quarterback Rankings — are already gone, the two-time MVP is waiting to lead your team.
After all, with Mahomes, you basically can pencil in 4,000 passing yards, since he’s reached that threshold for six straight seasons. However, it may be worthwhile to seriously consider other players in this spot.
Last season, Mahomes only threw for 27 touchdowns in 16 games, his fewest in a season since 2019. Worse, his passing touchdown percentage was 4.5%, his lowest since he became a starting quarterback (2018).
His 14 interceptions were a career high, and his yards per pass attempt, 7.0, were a career low.
On the ground, Mahomes is coming off a season in which he had the most rushing attempts (75) and rushing yards (389) of his career. However, for the first time since his rookie season of 2017, when he played in only one game, Mahomes did not have a rushing touchdown.
While he still has the weapons on offense — tight end Travis Kelce and running back Isiah Pacheco complement an improved receiving corps — it’s difficult not to look at the three-time Super Bowl MVP and wonder if his best fantasy days are behind him.
Lamar Jackson
Coming off his second MVP season, Jackson appears to be at his peak, in terms of fantasy value. He was durable, starting 16 games, and productive, posting a career-high 3,678 passing yards.
His running ability remains elite. He led the NFL in yards per carry last season (5.5), and even though his rushing yards per game (51.3) were his fewest since 2018, he still had over 800 rushing yards for the season. He also scored five touchdowns on the ground, his most since 2020.
Jackson threw the ball deep but remained efficient with a career-high 67.2% completion rate. He also avoided mistakes, with a career-low 1.5% interception percentage. His 13 turnovers were a pretty low total for a player who was involved in 642 plays last season.
If there is any reason to be concerned about Jackson’s fantasy numbers, perhaps it’s the offseason addition of former Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry. If Henry has anything left in the tank, especially around the end zone, it could take some of the rushing value off Jackson’s profile.