The Buffalo Bills felt like two different teams in the 2023 season. They started 6-6, including a tough overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. After the bye, though, they went on to win six straight games before losing to the buzzsaw Kansas City Chiefs. For those that followed closely with Bills betting lines, it was quite the disappointing season with the Bills only covering the spread in seven of 17 games.
Buffalo Bills Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise
- Super Bowl Odds: +1500
- AFC Odds: +800
- AFC East Odds: +180
- Win Total: 9.5 (Over -145/Under +120)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -175/+140
Bills Offense
Josh Allen finished third in EPA per play for quarterbacks with over 320 attempts. Time and time again, Allen shows the lack of importance in his interception totals as they don’t affect his team or individual success.
The three most impactful losses for this offense are Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, and Mitch Morse. With the top two receivers gone, Allen will have to spread the ball out more or find a new target to focus on. Per TruMedia, Allen averaged 2.92 EPA per game when targeting Diggs and Davis in the 2023 season. He averaged 2.06 EPA per game targeting everyone else in 2023.
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In the past three seasons, the Bills have ranked fifth, 11th, and fifth, respectively, in target concentration. This means that their offense has primarily focused on funneling passes toward the top dogs. Some combination of Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid should look to take that role if the Bills decide against changing their philosophy.
Bills Defense
Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Leonard Floyd, and Micah Hyde are just some of the notable losses to the Bills’ defense going into 2024. Those players alone accounted for 2,412 snaps on defense.
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This isn’t even including other losses like Dane Jackson and Shaq Lawson. Fortunately, they return Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson, so the secondary should continue to be among the best in the league.
One Betting Trend To Know
Buffalo has never gone under its win total with Allen at the helm. When looking at other all-time greats, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes have gone under on their season win total four times in 36 collective seasons since 2003. In other words, transcendent quarterbacks protect you from the under.
Best Bet for the Bills in 2024
I like the Bills to be the AFC East division winner (+180). While the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins look to be formidable, I fully expect Allen to carry this team to victory. I am not as high as others on the Jets, but if the Dolphins seem like too close of a call, parlaying the over on 9.5 wins and making the playoffs is a different but equally viable best bet.
Ben Rolfe’s Bills Best Bet
Pick: Bills to score a TD in every game (+100 at DraftKings)
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Bills have failed to score a touchdown in just one game, but they have scored a touchdown in every game for the past two regular seasons. Per TruMedia, Buffalo scored 63.1% of its red-zone opportunities last year (sixth) and had an 81.8% goal-line efficiency. Both of those numbers give me a high level of confidence that the Bills should be able to score a touchdown in every game.
If we go back to 2019 when Josh Allen became the full-time starter, the Bills have scored in every game but three (Week 17, 2019; Week 7, 2020; and Week 9, 2021). One of those was a Week 17 game when Allen played minimal snaps, but two of the three have been against the Jets, so that will be the team to watch them against in terms of finding the end zone.
If you want to be a little braver, then you can get the Bills to score a passing touchdown at +700. They have narrowly failed in the endeavor in each of the last two years but have only failed to score a passing touchdown in two of the 34 games they have played across those two seasons.