The 2023 Atlanta Falcons were disappointing in all facets of offensive play.
The quarterback play was subpar, Drake London and Kyle Pitts have yet to live up to first-round expectations, and many people were not fans of Arthur Smith’s play-calling or game management.
Inserting a new regime along with a new quarterback could make the Falcons’ betting lines much more interesting for 2024.
Atlanta Falcons Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
NFC Odds: +1300
NFC West Odds: -120
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -135/Under +115)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -215/+170
Atlanta Falcons Offense
The 2023 Atlanta Falcons were in the bottom third of the league last year in EPA, success rate, and points scored.
There are two ways to score in the NFL — chunk plays or methodical marches down the field.
Per Tru Media, The Falcons ranked fifth in plays of 50+ yards, 22nd in plays of 20+ yards, and 13th in 10+ yard gains last season despite largely inept quarterback play that often held the team back.
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Despite an offensive line that allowed the fifth-fewest pressures per dropback last season, Desmond Ridder had an EPA per play of -0.06, which was good for 25th out of 30 quarterbacks with over 320 plays.
Giving Kirk Cousins a top offensive line, run game, and potentially dangerous wideouts should be enough to improve this offense from last season.
Atlanta Falcons Defense
The Falcons’ defense was one of the bright spots of the team last season. They finished 10th in overall EPA per play, ranking 20th against the pass and first in the league against the run.
Of players with over 600 defensive snaps, Calais Campbell was in the 71st percentile in tackle percentage per play and 85th percentile in tackles for a loss.
Losing Campbell to Miami will certainly hurt the run defense. While not as stout in making plays behind the line of scrimmage, both David Onyemata and Grady Jarret are very capable players.
To help improve the pass rush, the Falcons drafted Bralen Trice, a stud pass rusher from the Washington Huskies.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Falcons ranked dead last in covering the spread last season. Since 2018, only the Bears in 2019 and the Bucs in 2022 have had a worse cover record.
Best Bet for the Falcons in 2024
Since 2018, there have been 20 teams to roll with a new quarterback and head coach combo. Thirteen of these teams failed to hit their over in projected win totals. If you go back to 2003, 46 failed and 37 succeeded.
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Luckily, if you account for the difference in skill between the previous and the current quarterback, it paints a completely different story.
Using EPA per play as a proxy for quarterback skill, I filtered the data to only include teams where the skill gap was as big as the one between Cousins and Ridder. Of those 20 teams, 18 went over their win total, one pushed, and only one did not.
My best bet is Atlanta Falcons Over 9.5 (-135).