“It’s not what you bet, it’s how you bet it.”
I was told that very early in my betting life, and I’ll never forget it. When gambling on the NFL, you’re betting into a very efficient market, one that will eat you alive if you allow it to.
I’ll pour as much time and energy into researching this stuff as anyone you know — even I can’t tell you that every week is profitable. It’s not, and it’s never going to be. That’s not how this works. There are no “locks,” and variance will beat rock-solid research on a regular basis.
“It’s not what you bet, it’s how you bet it.”
This is a good mantra to follow weekly, but for the purposes of this article, I’m applying it to a long-term betting portfolio. I’ve got four future bets placed, and I’ve structured my card in such a way that I’m profiting if I hit one. With the room to take the wife on a well-deserved weekend getaway if we connect a few dots.
NFL Future Bets: Building a Portfolio
Caleb Williams To Lead Rookies in Pass Yards (+100 at DraftKings)
Wager: 3.5 units
Everyone likes chasing big odds when it comes to future bets, but sometimes the value sits with the favorite, and winning a smaller ticket is always better than losing a big one.
Two of the no-lottery ticket options based on price tag are J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye, two quarterbacks who I expect to start the season on the pine and, thus, battling from behind from the jump.
I’d go McCarthy over Maye if you’re interested in this range, but for me, you’re taking on risk for no reason. He’s a player with less draft capital investment and a game-count disadvantage. Not to mention, McCarthy just went down with an injury and will miss some time.
Left for Caleb Williams to top are Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. While the Bears were busy bringing in a pair of receivers to support the top overall pick, the Commanders are working in a new offensive coordinator, and the Broncos let their WR2 walk.
Chicago will also be asked to score, which naturally comes with an increase in pass attempts and yards. Joining them in the NFC North (therefore making up 35.3% of their schedule) are three top-10 offenses in terms of yards per play.
Last, but not least, the “draft capital” argument does hold some water.
- Over the past 20 seasons, eight times has a qualified rookie (10+ games) averaged 240+ passing yards, and the majority of them were drafted 1.01.
- Over the past 20 seasons, 10 times has a qualified rookie averaged 35+ passing attempts, and the majority of them were drafted 1.01.
Those are more storytelling stats than predictive ones, but it’s at least interesting that these top overall picks have been trusted with more volume than all other rookies.
Logically, that tracks and is another tick in the win column for Williams, a player who I think has a realistic chance to effectively lock up this award before Christmas.
CeeDee Lamb To Lead the NFL in Receptions (+600 at DraftKings)
Wager: 1 unit
This is a critical addition to the overall card as we get access to my projected favorite for a price that will allow us to profit if everything else goes sideways.
In talking catch count, we need volume and efficiency. CeeDee Lamb’s role was unmatched last season, and after Brandin Cooks turned in a career-low 1.25 yards per route run, it’s easy to pencil in more of the same.
I could try to sell you on even further growth, but let’s not get greedy. A mirror image of last season will get the job done.
When it comes to efficiency, all the signs are pointing in the right direction. Lamb’s aDOT (average depth of target) has ticked down in consecutive seasons, a trend that indicates more high-percentage targets being funneled his way.
The impact of those short looks is usually two-fold — an elevated catch rate along with a minor projectable bump to downfield efficiency as defenses look to jump the short route.
UNREAL 92-YARD TD 😱😱😱
📺: #DETvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/urKeZaIvCL pic.twitter.com/uVK0ixWWZo— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
Last season, Lamb defied expectations, thus opening him up to even more gaudy numbers this season. He ranked fourth (minimum 100 total targets) in catch percentage on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield while checking in “just” 16th on the shorter targets.
The trendy style of defending these elite passing games is an umbrella coverage that forces the quarterback to beat them with 1,000 paper cuts. That’s fine for us!
I have no doubt that Lamb can win underneath, and if his connection with Dak Prescott tightens, he should move toward the top 10 in catch rate on those passes, giving him access to even more reception upside.
Year 1 under Brian Schottenheimer
- 3-WR sets: 62.7% of the time (19th in the NFL)
- Drop-back rate: 60.8% (13th in the NFL)
Cowboys in the five seasons prior
- 3-WR sets: 66.3% of the time (9th in the NFL)
- Drop-back rate: 59.6% (23rd in the NFL)
You read that right. Dallas is passing more and putting fewer receivers on the field. While Lamb’s target share is seemingly without a ceiling, the other three members of the big four, when it comes to the odds board, have serious competition.
Amon-Ra St. Brown might be playing alongside the best tight end in the sport, while Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle would both profile as WR1s if not for the presence of Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill, respectively.
Injuries can always happen, but I have Lamb labeled as a prohibitive favorite, something that is not currently reflected in the betting streets.
Breece Hall To Lead the NFL in Rush Yards (+800 at DraftKings)
Wager: 1 unit
Rush for 1,400 yards, and you’ve put yourself in position to cash this bet. It’s happened 14 times over the past decade, so while it’s not foolproof, it’s a good goal to aim for.
Of those instances, the RB saw his QB score, on average, just 12.3% of his fantasy points with his legs (none of them reached 20%). That’s not surprising, it’s simply a number to highlight that a mobile quarterback, while effective on the NFL field, can be prohibitive in this market.
A market like this is going to shift toward the top of the board because it’s a volume bet. Jonathon Brooks might be great, but if his usage is capped for the first month-plus of the season, he’s simply not going to catch these elite talents.
- Anthony Richardson: 49% of points scored via the rush
- Jalen Hurts: 39.4% of points scored via the rush
- Lamar Jackson: 30.2% of points scored via the rush
Three of the top five on the odds board are quarterbacked by one of these three elite athletes. For me, that’s reason enough to pivot. Sorry, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry — you’re all great players, but there’s a lot of high-end talent at the position, and singular down weeks are going to be tough to absorb.
Circling back to the 14 instances in which a running back racked up 1,400 rushing yards over the past decade, their average season-entering age was just over 25 years old. If we remove the medicine-defying Adrian Peterson (2015) from the board, that average slips under 25.
For the sample as a whole, one standard deviation in each direction covers 22.7 years old to 27.5. Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey are the two running backs who survived the QB cutoff from the step before. Hall fits in within one standard deviation on the young side, while McCaffrey is out of it on the old side.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to scramble the way he used to, but his mind will allow the Jets to sustain long drives, thus putting Hall in a position to rack up the yards. Outside of Garrett Wilson, there aren’t a ton of skill options on this roster, a problem the 49ers pretty clearly don’t have.
Nico Collins To Lead the NFL in TD Receptions (+6000 at FanDuel)
Wager: 1 unit
You’ve waited long enough — here’s your bomb. The number at FanDuel seems to move on an hourly basis, so be patient if you don’t see the odds you want at first (in researching this, it started at +6000, dipped all of a sudden to +4900, and then bounced back to +6000).
I’m nothing if not consistent, so let’s run through a similar exercise as what I did for Hall.
For a receiver to be in the conversation to lead the league in touchdown receptions, 14 is the number to shoot for. Over the past decade, that number has been reached 12 times, and in this era, with increasing TE usage, not to mention versatile running backs, I think that’s likely on the high end, if anything.
The writing is on the wall for Nico Collins. Of those 12 instances, nine featured a receiver who stands over 6’ tall, and eight of them involved one who was either 6’3” or in the first five years of his NFL career.
Those are boxes Collins checks with ease. Those 12 saw 11.7% of their targets come in the end zone and 31.3% of their targets come 15+ yards downfield. Collins checked in under those thresholds (9.2% and 27.5%, respectively), but if we give him some grace for working in a rookie quarterback (a rookie QB who, by the way, wants to get more aggressive), it’s not hard to see him reaching those marks in 2024.
The pushback I get with my Collins analysis, be it fantasy football or betting, is the target competition. I get it, and I don’t disagree with it. What I do disagree with is the thought that the bettering of this offense is supposed to cool my optimism on this star in the making.
When it comes to this prop, eight of the 12 measured seasons came next to a pass catcher who either racked up over 1,100 yards or hauled in double-digit touchdown passes. My argument is that Collins is the best of the bunch in Houston, not that he’s the only productive option.
Summary
- Caleb Williams to lead rookies in pass yards (+100 at DraftKings) | 3.5 units
- CeeDee Lamb to lead the NFL in receptions (+600 at DraftKings) | 1 unit
- Breece Hall to lead the NFL in rush yards (+800 at DraftKings) | 1 unit
- Nico Collins to lead the NFL in TD receptions (+6000 at FanDuel) | 1 unit
If we hit one, it’s a half-unit gain at the worst, and we obviously have room for plenty of upside.