In this offensive era, most positions in fantasy football are as deep as they have ever been. A four-time MVP is hardly ever drafted, the GOAT at the TE position is no longer in a class of his own, and there are receivers outside of the top 100 overall players that could crack 1,000 yards without much breaking in their favor.
And then, we have the top RB fantasy picks.
This is a position that is traditionally heavy with production among the elite. That remains the case, but with committees all over the place, value is hard to mine entering the season.
That’s why I’m here – to shed some light on the running backs highlighted, circled, and underlined on my fantasy football draft cheat sheets!
Top RBs To Draft in Fantasy Football in 2024
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Let’s call Walker what he is — a home run hitter. He is capable of breaking any game open on a single carry, but he’s just as likely to set your drive back with consecutive stuffed runs.
Last season, among 35 running backs that carried the ball 150+ times, Walker ranked:
- 29th in percentage of carries that gained yardage
- 10th in percentage of carries that gained 10+ yards
Given the positive reviews coming out of Seattle this summer, I’m tempted to think that the Seahawks toy with the idea of giving Walker the one thing we need: consistent opportunities.
For his career, when Walker has played at least 47% of the offensive snaps, he’s given us 16.2 PPR PPG. That would have ranked as RB8 a season ago and is the type of breakout that I view as possible.
Even if you like this offense to bounce back, it will need to control the tempo if it wants to compete. It’s possible that the majority of Seattle’s games this season will come against a top-12 offense — two each against the 49ers and Cardinals, in addition to games against the Dolphins, Lions, Falcons, Bills, Jets, Packers, and Bears.
Shootouts are not how the Seahawks are going to compete.
The splash plays will come, and Walker’s near 6.0 yards per target average across his two seasons is another path for him to reach 300 PPR points in 2024.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Am I missing something here? In Year 2, Robinson improved across the board.
After a disrupted rookie season, Robinson’s yards per carry increased, his touchdown rate spiked, and his involvement in the passing game flipped from non-existent to a legitimate asset.
He’s on the right side of the age curve (eight of the top 14 running backs last season were aged 25 or younger, and Robinson turned 25 in March) and checked all of the growth boxes last season. And we are dragging his ADP down into the late eighth round because Austin Ekeler is now in the mix?
Forget the “age curve” when it comes to the former Charger. We saw a cliff last season.
Ekeler, Fantasy Points Compared to Expectation
- 2017-22: 17.7% above
- 2023: 21.1% under
I trust Jayden Daniels to add upside to the Commanders’ offense. But with a build more akin to Lamar Jackson than the pounding goal-line QBs in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, I’m not too worried about Daniels’ rushing TD count. For reference, Allen and Hurts average more rushing TDs per season than Jackson has ever had in a year.
The Commanders had 14 TDs on the ground last season. Robinson had five, and the only player returning to Washington who found the end zone rushing is Chris Rodriguez, who had two rushing scores.
I think Washington has a bell cow in Robinson, and in assuming as much, a dozen rushing scores is very much within the range of outcomes.
My dating profile now reads: “Likes long walks on the beach and drafting developing running backs in a rapidly improving system with a shaky veteran behind him late in the eighth round.”
No hits yet, but I expect that to change by the time this season is over – after Robinson gets fully healthy in the Week 14 bye and produces top-15 numbers during the fantasy playoffs (Saints, Eagles, and Falcons).
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
I’m not a doctor, nor do I pretend to be one. But the outlook from a health perspective seems pretty straightforward: Chubb will be eased into action at some point early in the season, and he will ramp up as the weeks melt away.
The Browns have a perfectly placed bye week (Week 10), thus allowing them to potentially unleash their All-Pro in the late stages of the first half of the season, giving him an extra week to make sure that all boxes are checked.
What do you have to lose with your eighth-round pick?
I’m in love with how Cleveland’s schedule plays out from a game theory standpoint. Sure, you might not get much in the way of usable weeks before Halloween, but coming out of that bye, it could be wheels up in a major way.
In Weeks 11-14, Cleveland plays nothing but run defenses that ranked 18th or lower in preventing running back yards after contact. I’ll give you one guess as to who leads the NFL in yards gained after contact since Chubb entered the league:
- Chubb: 3.94
- Derrick Henry: 3.92
- Tony Pollard: 3.53
After that stretch, the Browns finish with games against elite offenses (Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami, and Baltimore) that even their elite defense can’t completely slow down, meaning a run-heavy script as the weather turns.
The only thing less fun than trying to tackle Cubb is trying to tackle Chubb in frigid conditions where Cleveland is motivated to continue to have him pound the rock.
From a role standpoint, there should be zero concerns. I know Jerome Ford had his moments last season, but they were just that – moments.
Over the past two seasons, 49 running backs have at least 200 carries, and Ford ranks 49th in percentage of carries that have gained yardage (71.7%). He’s dead last, and it’s not even close (next worst: 76.2%).
Juxtapose that to the leaderboard of running backs since 2020 who have produced above fantasy expectations given where their carries come on the field, and you’ll understand my point:
- Chubb: +24.9%
- Christian McCaffrey: +18.3%
Don’t overthink this. Chubb is a strong buy at this price point if your goal is to win your final matchup of the season. If it’s not, you’re playing the wrong game.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Over the past decade, 42 running backs have carried the rock at least 150 times as rookies, and I want to share some rankings with you.
Percentage of carries that gained 5+ yards
- Williams: 37.4% (8th)
- Jonathan Taylor: 36.6% (10th)
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 35.7% (11th)
- Bijan Robinson: 35.5% (12th)
PPR points per opportunity (rush + target)
- Robinson: 0.44 (3rd)
- Williams: 0.36 (4th)
- Gibbs 0.35 (5th)
- Taylor: 0.27 (18th)
And I’m supposed to believe that Williams isn’t worthy of being selected as one of the 80 most valuable assets in fantasy this season?
His rookie season (2021) may feel like a long time ago, but Williams suffered a torn ACL in 2022 — an injury that often requires a recovery season before returning to anything close to prior form.
Remember when Year 3 Saquon Barkley shredded his knee? He had the worst season of his career in terms of fantasy production compared to expectation (minus-11.5%) in Year 4 before seeing his points per carry spike by 51.2% in Year 5.
Maybe Barkley is a unique talent, but my optimism remains Williams has every chance to look like the rookie version of himself this year in a creative Sean Payton offense, and at a fraction of the cost from 24 months ago (65-70 pick discount).
There is some carry competition in Denver entering this season, and with a win total expectancy hovering around six, game script could be an issue. But, much like Chubb, this is the go-zone where your potential reward far outweighs the risk you’re taking on.
The Broncos end the fantasy season with a Week 14 bye and back-to-back-to-back games against defenses that ranked outside of the top 15 in run EPA in 2023.
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
Wright’s speed is enticing in this motion-based offense, but fantasy managers have been skeptical about investing redraft dollars in him with not one, but two productive running backs easily ahead of him on the depth chart.
But is that right? Doesn’t that just double Wright’s chances of getting on the field via an injury for one of the most explosive offenses in the league?
Last season proves that Miami’s offense can sustain two viable backs. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were both top-10 running backs in 2023, combining for over 35 fantasy points per game. Yet, both players carry at least some injury risk.
- Mostert: Age-32 season, 57.9% of his career carries have come in the past two seasons.
- Achane: Missed a game with a shoulder sprain and a month with a knee sprain.
I don’t want to say Wright could be a 2024 injury to Achane away from being 2023 Achane, but it’s not impossible and well worth his current asking price. His ADP is four rounds behind the aforementioned Jerome Ford, and two behind Chuba Hubbard, two backs that are expected to lose value as the season progresses.
