The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.
The NFC North is expected to look drastically different this season, with each team making significant moves to get better. Added talent provides new opportunities for fantasy managers to find late-round draft picks that make a difference down the stretch of a season.
Fantasy Football Sleepers | NFC North
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR
In his first four games last season, Jameson Williams was on the field for the upstart Lions for just 38.3% of their offensive snaps. Following that (including the playoffs), his snap rate spiked to 62.5%.
The funniest thing happened; Detroit scored 30+ points in the majority of those games. The game-breaking athleticism isn’t a secret, but it also might not be defendable.
Cooks, DeVonta Smith, Jordan Addison, and Tank Dell all produced good-to-great numbers given their preseason expectations. They all owned an above-average aDOT (average depth of target) while playing alongside a top-10 receiver.
With an ADP well outside of the top 100 overall, Williams simply owning high one-week upside is enough to pay off picking him. I view that as his floor in 2024, with his ceiling being that of a player you consider for your Flex spot on a regular basis, especially given the largely weatherproof nature of Detroit’s schedule.
Green Bay Packers: MarShawn Lloyd, RB
Thanks to the massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 touchdowns), the perception of Josh Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and saw him rack up 4.9 yards per carry. He’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year.
The Packers made the move to feature Jacobs after moving on from Aaron Jones and are pretty clearly trying to push the envelope to win now. On the surface, a four-year deal would suggest that Green Bay is significantly tied to its new RB1.
However, with a potential out after this season, the Packers are likely to be honest in their evaluation of their backfield. That gives MarShawn Lloyd more role upside than is being baked into his current ADP.
Jordan Love had essentially the same passer rating as Stroud in play-action situations, averaging more yards per pass on those plays than Patrick Mahomes.
Green Bay is going to continue trying to establish the run to open up opportunities for Love to thrive, and if Lloyd impresses early, he could carve out a niche in this upward-trending offense in rather short order.
Chicago Bears: Khalil Herbert, RB
It wasn’t long ago that fragility concerns were at the forefront of D’Andre Swift’s analysis, and now, after bell-cow season, has that storyline disappeared?
You could argue that a player seeing a spike in usage like he did last year (268 touches in 2023 after totaling 147 in 2022) is at risk of seeing his body break down a bit in the follow-up campaign.
RB Leaders in YPC Since 2021 (min. 350 carries)
We all like the Bears to be on the shortlist for the most improved offense in the NFL this season, and that puts them in position to drag along a running back for the ride.
Khalil Herbert lacks versatility, which is not ideal. Yet, with four players ahead of the RB position in Chicago’s target hierarchy, I’m not sure how much fantasy meat is being left on the bone via a limited skill set.
Minnesota Vikings: Ty Chandler, RB
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Ty Chandler. And with only one collegiate season of 150+ touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork.
What we can say with confidence is that Chandler runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
Touchdown Ty Chandler!
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📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/O8u6w4GMCV— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if Chandler can carve out a 10-15 touch role, he’s going to be on Flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here’s what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.
Even if you’re not with me, the contingent value is worth a dart throw at his current price. Jones has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons, including six DNPs in 2023.