The Chicago Bears‘ backfield felt like a bit of a mystery entering last season with three intriguing backs on the roster. Two of those backs are still in the picture but now have to contend with D’Andre Swift, who the organization gave a market-value contract to early this offseason.
Can Khalil Herbert manage to carve out a large enough role in a revamped Bears’ offense to be a reliable fantasy football Flex option in 2024?
Khalil Herbert’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 110.0
- Rushing Yards: 632.2
- Rushing TDs: 2.8
- Receptions: 15.2
- Receiving Yards: 101.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Herbert This Year?
Just in case you need a quick reminder of how much of a headache this Bears’ backfield was for fantasy managers last year, here is a closer look at the production from their three leading ball carriers in 2023.
2023 Chicago Bears Running Back Production
- Khalil Herbert: 152 total touches, 745 total yards, 3 TDs
- Roschon Johnson: 115 total touches, 561 total yards, 2 TDs
- D’Onta Foreman: 120 total touches, 502 total yards, 5 TDs
That is just about the perfect definition of what a running back by committee looks like, folks. All players saw between 115-155 total touches and no player produced a top 40 campaign at the position in full-PPR formats.
In other words, it was a complete headache to determine who to start on a weekly basis.
What didn’t help matters was Herbert’s drop in efficiency. To be fair, his mark of 4.63 yards per carry wasn’t awful by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a far car from his mark of 5.67 in 2022.
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Herbert is entering the final year of his rookie deal and feels like a bit of a misfit toy in this offense. He is an efficient ball carrier who can pop big plays, but so is Swift — who is arguably a more explosive option with more reliable hands out of the backfield as a pass catcher.
Additionally, Herbert has had his fair share of issues in pass protection throughout his career — which is where Johnson excels. This cuts off another potential path to see consistent work in this backfield.
Will Herbert occasionally see some run in this offense? Yes, I believe so. Could he emerge as the top goal-line option? It’s possible, but I actually believe Johnson projects as a better short-yardage hammer than Herbert.
I believe Herbert’s best chance to be a potential Flex option in 2024 would be if GM Ryan Poles trades him to an RB-needy team ahead of the season. Unfortunately, we can’t bank on that coming to fruition — which makes Hervert an unattractive late-round dart throw in fantasy drafts this year.
Herbert’s ADP No. 180 overall at the very end of the 15th round as the RB58 off the board makes him nothing more than the equivalent of throwing a hail mary at the end of your draft, which is fine for a player who has flashed some playmaking ability as a ball carrier throughout his young career.
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Personally, I’d rather take a chance on players like Tyrone Tracy Jr., Audric Estime, or Kimani Vidal who have a plausible path to potentially taking the leading role in their respective backfields.