Week 1 of the preseason is officially in the books, which means we’re one step closer to the start of the 2024 NFL regular season.
With the NFL Kickoff Game soon approaching, we used PFN’s Playoff Predictor to simulate the regular season, and it unveiled some surprising results. Let’s take a look at the simulation’s predictions for the division standings and playoff picture in the NFC.
Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the NFC
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
- New York Giants (4-13)
- Washington Commanders (4-13)
In their first season with former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles win the division by three games.
In a crucial season for the Cowboys, they miss out on the playoffs, making Mike McCarthy’s seat even hotter.
New York and Washington remain near the bottom of the league, with both teams slotted to make their 2025 NFL Draft selections within the first four picks. It appears the Giants could spend their offseason looking for a Daniel Jones replacement, while the Commanders could target playmakers on the defensive side after allowing the fourth-most points (406) on the season.
NFC North
- Green Bay Packers (11-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
- Detroit Lions (9-8)
- Chicago Bears (9-8)
Similar to the AFC North, the NFC North is one of the more competitive divisions, and in the simulation, no team finishes with a losing record.
Half of the NFC North makes the playoffs, with former No. 1 pick Caleb Williams and the Bears just missing out on a playoff run in Williams’ rookie season. Detroit also misses out on the playoffs just one season after winning the NFC North for the first time since the division was created in 2002.
After Green Bay’s historic playoff run last season as the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Bills and the youngest team to win a playoff game since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger, they take the next step in the Jordan Love era by winning the division.
Minnesota (No. 7), Detroit (No. 8), and Chicago (No. 9) all follow each other in the conference standings, with Minnesota the only additional NFC North team in the playoffs.
NFC South
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
- New Orleans Saints (8-9)
- Carolina Panthers (6-11)
- Altanta Falcons (6-11)
For the fourth consecutive season, the Buccaneers are the NFC South champions. Of the playoff-bound teams, the Buccaneers scored the fewest points (359) while having the lowest positive point differential of +4. The division was relatively close at the top; however, three of the four teams ended the season with losing records.
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Bryce Young’s sophomore season went a bit better than his first, as the Panthers end the season with three times as many wins as the prior year.
On the other hand, the Falcons surprisingly regress as they began the Kirk Cousins era, finishing the year at the bottom of the division.
NFC West
- Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
- Arizona Cardinals (11-6)
- Seattle Seahawks (2-15)
The NFC West saw the largest range of outcomes in the simulation. The division has both the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the team with the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The 49ers topped the NFC in points scored (435), with the Rams close behind (428). With three teams from this division filling the playoff bracket, they tie the AFC North for most playoff representation.
After a 4-13 season last year, the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. appears to be what Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense needed to take their game to the next level, as they managed to win 11 games.
Predicting the NFC Playoff Picture
- Los Angeles Rams
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Green Bay Packers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- San Francisco 49ers
- Arizona Cardinals
- Minnesota Vikings
Despite losing one of the best defenders in NFL history to retirement, the Rams take the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Eagles secure second place thanks to their new-look offense under Moore, and they’ll take on Minnesota to begin the playoffs.
Green Bay and Arizona face off as the desert-ridden Cardinals visit the Frozen Tundra in Lambeau Field.
In the final matchup of the first round, No. 5 seed San Francisco and its high-scoring offense take on the No. 4 seed Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Of the seven playoff teams coming out of the NFC, three come from the NFC West, two represent the NFC North, and the playoff picture is closed out by the two divisional champions from the NFC East and NFC South.
This simulation sees a little shake-up from last year’s NFC playoff picture, as the two lowest seeds make the playoffs after missing out on last season’s postseason action.