Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s fantasy football outlook in 2024 cannot be evaluated without mentioning his being in a contract year. Will Prescott receive an extension from the Cowboys, or will they let him play out the year?
Either way, there are plenty of fantastic fantasy team names to choose from using his name, like “Oh My Aching Dak,” “Dak to the Future,” and more.
Below, I’ll examine Prescott’s 2024 fantasy outlook and evaluate whether he’s a good fantasy pick.
Dak Prescott’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Waiting on a quarterback is the go-to approach in the fantasy football strategy of many, and with Prescott going as the QB8 and No. 75 overall, it makes sense to wonder if he qualifies for that strategy and if he’ll be a good value.
According to TruMedia, Prescott was eerily consistent across first, second, and third down in 2023 regarding passing yards. He had 1,593 on first, 1,424 on second, and 1,409 on third. However, 17 of his 36 passing touchdowns in the regular season came on second down.
He was stellar against Cover-1, completing 72.1% of his passes on 129 attempts for 1,228 yards, 12 touchdowns, and an interception. Conversely, he had one touchdown and three interceptions against Cover-2.
Additionally, Prescott sent 12.4% of his attempts 20+ yards downfield. He completed 35 of 73 passes for 1,024 yards, 10 touchdowns, and an interception in that split, while his 12.4% target distribution was his best since 2020.
Interestingly, passes of 0-9 yards downfield accounted for 46.8% of his throws, but he had 742 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
A key component to many successful fantasy quarterbacks is rushing upside. On that front, Prescott had 55 carries in 2023, with 22 coming on first down, seven on second down, 22 on third down, and four on fourth down. Both rushing touchdowns came on either third or fourth down.
His 22 carries on third down went for 119 yards at 5.4 yards per carry. This likely played a massive role in the Cowboys ranking second in third-down conversion percentage.
His group of receivers is slightly questionable heading into the season, though. There are issues with CeeDee Lamb’s contract, and beyond the star wideout, Prescott has Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, and a few other role players at his disposal.
Additionally, last season’s lead back, Tony Pollard is gone, replaced by a returning Ezekiel Elliott, who’s complemented by Rico Dowdle.
Is Dak Prescott a Good Fantasy Pick?
I have no issues with taking Prescott at the aforementioned slotting of QB8, No. 75 overall. Where he’s getting drafted makes a Prescott/Lamb stack possible. The more unknowns in the backfield, the more passing opportunities Prescott could have. Consequently, we could see him top his 4,516 yards from a year ago for the first time since 2019, when he threw for 4,902 yards.
If the Cowboys don’t extend him, Prescott has a chance for a massive payday on the open market, even if he replicates a 2023 season that saw him finish as the QB4 from Weeks 1 to 17.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insight on Dak Prescott
For me, your willingness to draft Prescott as QB7 and at the top of a tier that includes Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Kyler Murray in the Round 6-7 ADP range relies on your evaluation of Ezekiel Elliott.
Is Elliott washed up? It’s possible, if not likely, but what we think doesn’t matter. I mentioned the Cowboys ranking fourth in PROE last season — Elliott was in town for Mike McCarthy’s first three seasons leading this franchise, and their average PROE rank over that stretch was 18th.
If that play-call style returns, Prescott’s ranking in this tier of fantasy signal-callers is going to be an uphill battle, let alone finish atop of it. Heck, even if we split the difference between last season and the prior numbers with Elliott (PROE rank: 11th), I’d be fully out at this price given the upside of those other options at the position.
I currently have Prescott ranked in the middle of that tier and would consider drafting him if he fell to that point. I’m weighing the late-season schedule heavier than I am the concern that the pass-heavy nature of Dallas’ offense regresses.
From Week 13-16, Dallas doesn’t play a game that will have weather issues. To be honest, the defenses it plays over that stretch may pose as little threat as the weather (New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), too.
Week 17 is likely the Super Bowl in your league. While there are some potential weather concerns when playing in Philadelphia after Christmas, it should be noted that Prescott threw for 374 yards and three scores in the City of Brotherly Love a season ago.