The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints fought to reach the playoffs, but both fell short to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were led under center by a key 2023 offseason acquisition.
However, the Carolina Panthers are trying to enter the conversation for the division title after finishing with the league’s worst record. Is Tampa Bay still on top, or has Atlanta’s key additions helped them take the lead?
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the NFC South.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each NFC South Team
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (+3500)
The Falcons won seven games with this same nucleus of skill-position players and elected to burn their first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to contribute to success immediately.
Of course, Kirk Cousins was Atlanta’s big move this offseason, and if the Falcons win double-digit games like the betting markets expect, he’ll be the one given credit.
Since 2020, Cousins has ranked fifth in passing yards per game and fourth in passer rating among qualifiers, proof that he can put up the numbers required for consideration. If you’re looking for a long shot with an actual path to cashing an MVP ticket, Cousins makes for an interesting dart throw (+3500).
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (+15000)
It’s well known that no one on the Panthers is likely to win MVP, but if by some miracle this team wins 12+ games, who is most likely to win it? Bryce Young.
The sophomore QB is the key to Carolina’s success. Young needs to take a massive step forward if the Panthers are going to be competitive.
Of course, him winning MVP is one of the least likely outcomes. There’s a reason he’s +15000. The Hail Mary case is that this is last year’s No. 1 overall pick.
Young was chosen first overall for a reason. That talent was evident in spots last year, and it may continue into this year as well.
Is Young capable of the season needed to win MVP? Probably not. But there’s exactly a 0% chance anyone else on Carolina who could win MVP.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (+40000)
I find it hard to envision Derek Carr standing on the stage at NFL Honors in February, holding the NFL MVP award. His profile as a signal-caller does not fit that mold, and that means I am looking elsewhere for my MVP candidate from the New Orleans Saints.
A couple of years ago, Taysom Hill might have been that thought, simply because of the X-factor potential, but those days have now passed.
That leaves us with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave as the two main options. Kamara certainly has the McCaffrey prototype we would look for, but I doubt his ability to stay healthy for 17 games, which is what he would need.
That leads me to Olave, who will officially become the Saints’ center of attention following Michael Thomas’s departure this offseason. Olave has flashed his potential through two seasons with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and a fourth-placed finish in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2022.
The biggest improvement would need to come in his ability to find the end zone. With just nine touchdowns in two seasons, that career number would likely need to double in 2024, combined with more than 1,500 receiving yards.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (+7500)
We just discussed Canales’ impact on Smith’s statistics, and the story is somewhat similar for Baker Mayfield.
The veteran QB had a career year as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Canales as his offensive coordinator, but now he has to adapt to a different coach, and that is a major concern.
In what was a relatively weak MVP field last year, 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns did not even put Mayfield in the picture for votes. Sure, he got consideration for Comeback Player of the Year, but the statistical bar is much lower for that award.
Therefore, we would need to see Mayfield post a 35+ touchdown season, and probably add 500+ passing yards. Doing so would change the narrative of Mayfield’s career entirely.
Mayfield is the clear favorite to be the leading Buccaneers’ player in the MVP voting, mainly because there is no other stand-out candidate. However, it would require him to add around 10-15% on top of what were already career-high numbers in 2023.
– Rolfe