You can’t win a fantasy football league without drafting players who outperform expectation relative to their ADP. However, finding those players often involves taking on the risk that they finish well below their ADP expectation.
The best type of players to draft are those who offer upside, but little to no downside. With that in mind, here are the players I believe are being taken at their floor in 2024 fantasy drafts.
Players Being Drafted At Their Floor
Before we get to the specific players, I want to make sure no one is reading this feeling lost, not knowing what’s going on.
Every single player we draft has a floor and a ceiling. This is what’s known as their realistic range of outcomes.
Of course, there are always players who perform way better than anyone could have predicted, or way worse. But for the most part, players tend to produce somewhere in a relatively predictable range.
For some players, this range is quite wide. Those are your boom/bust volatile assets. For others, it’s more narrow. Those are your safer and more consistent players.
A player’s ceiling is the best possible outcome we can reasonably project. A player’s floor is the worst possible outcome we can reasonably project.
Most players are drafted somewhere in between their floor and ceiling outcomes. But every year, there are always a few players priced at or near their floor. Those are the players we want to target.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (ADP: QB12)
An ADP of QB12 may initially seem high for a guy who has never taken an NFL snap. After all, there are several much more established veterans going behind the starting quarterback for a team that does not project to be very good. It just doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes.
Jayden Daniels ran the ball 135 times for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns last year in college. He averaged 11.25 carries per game.
Per-game fantasy football ranks of QBs with 125+ carries in a season in NFL history (min. 8 games):
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 17 (2020 Cam)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 30, 2024
For Daniels to reach 125 carries this season, he needs to average 7.35 per game. I’m quite confident Daniels will average around eight or nine carries per contest. The only player who did not finish as a QB1 and met this criteria was a completely finished Cam Newton in 2020.
Daniels is being drafted as the last QB1. At worst, fantasy managers should get what they drafted. At best, Daniels is a potential league winner.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: QB10)
I have Kyler Murray ranked as my QB6. Truthfully, that’s probably his floor. It’s really not possible to envision a scenario where Murray’s fantasy points per game average is even as low as QB10.
Murray’s worst fantasy season was his rookie year. He averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game. Since then, he’s posted seasons of 24.4 ppg, 22.22 ppg, and 18.9 ppg twice. Last year’s 18.9 ppg outing came in eight games after he returned midseason from an ACL tear.
Murray did this despite averaging just 30.5 rushing yards per game. He’s now another year removed from his injury, so we should see his rushing yards per game average push closer to 40 (his career average is 37.7).
Additionally, Murray did not have the benefit of throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. last season. Now, he has a true alpha WR1.
Murray might be the single most mispriced player in all of fantasy this year. He is all upside at his current ADP.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: QB18)
I’ll keep this one short and sweet: Kirk Cousins has been an NFL starting quarterback for a decade. He has never finished lower than QB18.
Even though he’s changing teams for the second time, Cousins has plenty of weapons at his disposal in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He’s averaged at least 18.0 ppg every year except 2019.
If you completely punt QB, or want a safety net because you drafted a risky starter, Cousins has absolutely no downside at his price.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: RB35)
The price to draft Tyjae Spears makes absolutely no sense. Spears carried the ball all of 100 times last season. Yet, he was still able to average 9.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB38.
This year, Derrick Henry is gone. Replacing him is Tony Pollard, who was woefully inefficient on the prolific Dallas Cowboys offense last season.
The Titans’ backfield projects to be much more of an even touch split than it was last year. In fact, Spears and Pollard were listed as co-starters on the Titans’ initial preseason depth chart.
There’s certainly a chance Spears doesn’t provide much upward mobility. But the fact that he is being drafted a mere three spots above where he finished in a season in which he averaged 5.9 carries per game and only scored three touchdowns makes Spears a player fantasy managers target due to the almost non-existent downside.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (ADP: WR19)
The Miami Dolphins’ WR2 definitely has a capped ceiling playing alongside Tyreek Hill. Even so, there’s definitely room for him to outperform his WR19 ADP.
In three short years, Waddle has proven he can do it all as a wide receiver. As a rookie, he was a glorified Jarvis Landry replica, averaging a paltry 9.8 yards per reception. On raw volume, he turned 142 targets into 104 receptions for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR15.
As a sophomore, Waddle’s usage did a complete 180. He went from a low aDOT underneath guy to a low-volume downfield threat. Waddle averaged 18.1 yards per reception, which is how he managed to have nearly identical ppg (15.3) despite catching 29 fewer passes. He also scored eight times.
Last year, Waddle landed in the middle. His yards per reception dropped to 14.1, while his target share ticked up to 23.4%. However, Waddle only averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR21.
The thing is, Waddle only scored four touchdowns. Additionally, he was banged up for much of the season, missing three games and exiting early or missing chunks of several more.
Even if we get the same season Waddle gave us last year, he will return par value based on where he’s being drafted. There’s no risk in drafting Waddle, but the reward is significant.
The Dolphins scored 27 touchdowns on the ground last season. That number was 12 the year prior. They are likely to regress more toward the mean. That means more passing touchdowns. They can’t all go to Hill.
Waddle is one of my favorite Round 3 targets because he is being drafted at his floor.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: WR23)
As a rookie, DeVonta Smith only averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game. If you think that’s his floor, then feel free to ignore everything else I’m about to say.
In his sophomore season, Smith fully broke out. He saw a significant increase in volume. Despite the added targets, Smith’s catch percentage went up from 61.5% to 69.9%. He averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR14.
Smith’s 2022 season resulted in a rather significant ADP spike ahead of his third year. Unfortunately, his target share plummeted from 27% to 22.8%. Even though his yards per reception and touchdown numbers remained mostly the same, Smith averaged 14.2 ppg, finishing as the WR20.
At this point, you should be thinking, “Wait…Smith was perceived to have a down year, but only averaged 0.8 ppg fewer than the previous season when he was considered a value?” And now, one year later, Smith’s ADP is even lower than where he finished in 2023.
The arrival of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator should really open up the Eagles’ offense. Smith is likely to see more snaps in the slot, which will allow him to get open more easily. This is still a player who averaged 2.3 yards per route run last season, 14th in the league.
I really cannot envision a scenario where Smith is worse than he was last year. And even last year, it wouldn’t have taken much for him to have the same season as the year before when he was a high-WR2.
If you can walk out of your drafts with Waddle in the third and Smith in the fourth, you’ll be doing very well.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: WR34)
I completely understand the trepidation with Chris Godwin. After being drafted ahead of Mike Evans last season, the gap between the two couldn’t have been larger.
Evans went on to be one of the best values in all of fantasy football, finishing as a WR1. Godwin had his worst season since 2018, averaging just 12.3 fantasy points per game.
Here’s the thing about Godwin’s “awful” 2023 — he finished as the WR34. That marked his lowest finish since 2018’s WR36 result. Now, Godwin is being drafted at the exact place he finished his 2023 campaign.
This is a player that is not in decline. He’s still just 28 years old. Prior to last season, Godwin posted four consecutive seasons of being no lower than the WR15 and averaging no fewer than 14.9 fantasy points per game. Why are we acting like those seasons never happened?
For all of Godwin’s issues, he still amassed over 1,000 receiving yards. However, he only scored two times. Based on his receiving-yardage total, his expected touchdown number was around six.
In 2022, Godwin ran 57.6% of his routes from the slot. In fact, dating back to 2019, his slot rate has been over 50% every year of his career. Last season, he was there just 32.1% of the time.
Head coach Todd Bowles and new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen have publicly stated Godwin is going to see more work in the slot. The simple act of moving Godwin back to the slot, combined with not having bad touchdown luck, is enough to propel Godwin above his ADP.
What exactly could happen for Godwin to somehow be worse than a low-WR3? I certainly can’t fathom it. There is virtually no risk attached to drafting Godwin this season.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers (ADP: WR38)
The title of most mispriced WR goes to Diontae Johnson.
What exactly are fantasy managers worried about here? Oh, right. It’s the Panthers’ bottom-of-the-barrel offense that scored a mere 20 offensive touchdowns last season. Surely, this offense is going to remain terrible and drag Johnson down with it.
Who exactly is taking targets away from one of the best route runners in the NFL? A 34-year-old Adam Thielen? Rookie Xavier Legette? Johnson has no real threats to his target share.
Last season, Thielen was able to average 13.6 ppg, finishing as the WR25 in Pittsburgh. He did that on a 25.7% target share. The lowest target share of Johnson’s career, outside of his rookie year, was 22.9%. I think he pushes 30% this season. But even if he doesn’t, Johnson is unlikely to see lower than 25%.
Let’s say Bryce Young doesn’t take a step forward. The Panthers are still bad. Can it really be any worse than what Johnson endured in Pittsburgh the past two seasons?
Johnson finished as the WR39 each of the past two years. That’s where he’s being drafted now.
If things don’t work out, fantasy managers will get what they pay for in drafting Johnson. That’s not going to doom anyone’s season. But if Young takes even a moderate step forward, Johnson is a near-lock to at least produce a top-30 season.
As a reminder, Johnson averaged 17.2 ppg in 2021, good for a WR8 finish. Something like that is still within his plausible range of outcomes, albeit on the high side. Why can’t he get to 14.0 ppg? Anyone drafting him would sign for that right now.
Johnson is all upside and no downside. Target him in every league, as he is being drafted at his floor.