2024 NFL Season Predictions for the AFC Playoff Picture: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chiefs Shockingly Finish Only as No. 4 Seed

The 2024 NFL season is getting closer, which means it’s time to make our predictions. We used PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor to simulate the regular season, which unveiled some shocking results. Today, we specifically take a look at the simulation’s predictions for the division standings and playoff picture for the AFC.

Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the AFC

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins (14-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-8)
3. New York Jets (8-9)
4. New England Patriots (6-11)

The AFC East produces just one playoff team for the first time since 2020, as the Dolphins end their 15-year division championship drought in dominating fashion. Miami, buoyed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract extension just before training camp opened, finishes five games ahead of the Bills in the standings. Miami also sweeps their division rivals for the season, going a staggering 6-0 in the competitive AFC East.

While Miami dominates its way through the regular season, the Bills and Jets each have very disappointing seasons. Despite Aaron Rodgers’ return from his torn Achilles injury, New York’s playoff drought continues, as they finish with a losing record.

AFC North

1. Cleveland Browns (12-5)
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

Widely considered the toughest division in the NFL, the AFC North lives up to that billing in 2024, with three teams logging double-digit wins and no team finishing below .500.

While the Ravens and Bengals are considered the division’s heavyweights, the Browns win the AFC North in this simulation.

Kevin Stefanski’s team finishes the regular season on a six-game heater, including an upset road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs and a prime-time win over a 14-win Dolphins team.

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-5)
2. Houston Texans (11-6)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)
4. Tennessee Titans (5-12)

The simulation has the AFC South as a two-horse race once again in 2024, but this time, the Colts come out on top.

While the Texans don’t quite live up to their lofty expectations for this season, they still finish with an impressive 11-6 record and the No. 5 seed in the AFC. Unfortunately for them, however, this means traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs in the Wild Card round.

AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)
3. Denver Broncos (5-12)
4. Los Angeles Chargers (4-13)

It’s more of the same in the AFC West, as the Chiefs continue their dominance and finish a staggering six games ahead of second-place Las Vegas to claim their ninth-straight division title.

The surprise in this group is the Chargers, who finished a shocking 4-13 in their first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Predicting the AFC Playoff Picture

1. Miami Dolphins (14-3)
2. Indianapolis Colts (12-5)
3. Cleveland Browns (12-5)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
5. Houston Texans (11-6)
6. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

When Mike Tomlin is at the helm of the lowest-seeded team and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is under center for the sixth-seeded group, it’s safe to say there are no easy outs in the 2024 AFC playoff field.

It’s a great year for a bye — chalk one up for Miami. Super Wild Card Weekend action in the AFC features a Patrick Mahomes-C.J. Stroud matchup and an AFC North showdown between Cleveland and Baltimore. Get your popcorn ready!