For the past seven years, few players have been more reliable in fantasy football than Tyreek Hill. Unfortunately, Hill is now much closer to the end of his career than the beginning.
Should fantasy managers spend an early first-round pick on the Miami Dolphins WR?
Tyreek Hill’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
It’s very hard to find flaws in Hill’s profile. He’s one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. If he’s not a Hall-of-Famer, it won’t be because of his on-field performance.
Hill epitomizes dominant receiver play, and the fantasy results have followed.
Last season, he was on his way to becoming the first WR in NFL history to crest 2,000 receiving yards before a late-season ankle sprain derailed his quest. Somehow, the best season of his career came after he left the greatest quarterback of all time, Patrick Mahomes, to join up with Tua Tagovailoa.
Hill has now finished inside the top 12 for fantasy receivers every year since 2017. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game a total of four times in his career, including each of the last two seasons.
Hill’s 23.5 fantasy points per game in 2023 trailed only CeeDee Lamb. He almost certainly would’ve finished above Lamb had the ankle injury not hindered him in multiple games down the stretch, which he played through in pursuit of the aforementioned 2,000-yard mark.
This year, Miami’s offense looks very much the same. Hill and Jaylen Waddle will dominate targets. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane will form a dynamic committee in the backfield.
Hill led the NFL with a 33.7% target share last season. He also led the league with his 36.9% targets per route run rate. Unsurprisingly, he also led all receivers with 3.88 yards per route run.
It’s extremely difficult to be that efficient on significant volume. Hill, a perpetual outlier, is one-of-one in that regard.
Is Hill a Good Fantasy Pick?
Now 30 years old, we are officially on watch for his inevitable decline. The only reason Hill wouldn’t be a good pick is if this is the year he falls off. Given that he costs a top-five pick to acquire, even a minor dip in performance would be a problem.
Fortunately, we’ve seen no signs of decline from Hill. Although age 30 is a concern, ages 31 and 32 are when we see elite receivers start to fall off. I am approaching the 2024 season as if the speedster is his usual self.
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I’ve gone back and forth all year between Hill and Lamb as my top-ranked wide receiver for the 2024 season. Ultimately, there’s no wrong answer.
I settled on Lamb because he’s younger, and his offensive situation is as perfect as it gets for an elite target. But we’re talking about splitting the thinnest of hairs between two stars. Subsequently, Hill should be gone no later than the fifth pick in fantasy drafts.
Derek Tate’s Analysis of Hill’s Fantasy Value
When your fantasy floor has been the WR2 overall in your first two seasons with a new team, then you know we are seeing something truly special.
Hill has caught 119 passes for 1,700+ yards and scored a minimum of seven receiving TDs in both seasons with the Dolphins. Those are the numbers of an elite producer at the position with an elite fantasy floor that you can take to the bank.
We all know that Hill’s elite speed is revolutionary to the game of football. Yet, you have to wonder what kind of impact losing even half a step would have on Hill’s production.
Look, he has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down, but he did turn 30 years old earlier this year. The advanced on-field GPS analytics suggest Hill hasn’t lost a step at all compared to his days with the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill topped out at 22.01 MPH on a long catch and run against the New York Giants last season, showing Hill still has a mind-blowing top speed when he gets the ball in his hands.
Hill’s 238 receptions and 3,509 receiving yards over his two years in Miami give him an elite fantasy floor in this offensive scheme that other players simply can’t touch. Additionally, his durability throughout his entire NFL career has also been outstanding, making him a highly reliable top producer at the position.
Ultimately, Hill will likely be gone by the fourth pick in your fantasy league, but if you get him anywhere outside of the top five in your draft, consider it an early Christmas gift.