Houston Texans TE Dalton Schultz has produced consecutive seasons with near identical stat lines, and that has fantasy football managers a bit bored. He’s been productive, but the upside hasn’t been anything special, and there are now concerns about his involvement with Stefon Diggs being added to this explosive passing attack.
Is Schultz worthy of a late-round pick for those looking to punt the position?
Dalton Schultz’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Schultz is a solid player, and he averaged a career-high 10.8 yards per catch in his first season with the Texans. He’s scored at least a handful of touchdowns in three straight seasons and showed us the ability to be viable for an extended stretch in 2023, scoring in five of seven games during a mid-season run.
Dalton Schultz 2022:
⭐️ 89 Targets (7th)
⭐️ 57 Receptions (11th)
⭐️ 5 TDs (8th)
⭐️ PPR Points per Game (9th)Is Dalton Schultz still a TE1 with the Texans? pic.twitter.com/R8laUwZerR
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) June 6, 2023
Since 2021, Schultz has averaged more PPR fantasy points per target than tight ends with a much higher profile in our game — T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku. Schultz had six games during the regular season with a 20+ yard catch and had such a play in both playoff contests, proving that being tied to a C.J. Stroud-led offense can elevate his stock.
I’m not the least bit worried about what Schultz can do when he has the ball in his hands. I am, however, worried about how often he’s given the chance to produce.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell are young, explosive receivers who figure to develop alongside Stroud, while Diggs has proven more than capable of earning targets at an elite level.
The top 14 fantasy tight ends last season (PPR) were all targeted on over 19% of their routes. That group included Schultz (20.4%), but one of two things figures to happen in 2024: either the target-per-route number tanks or the raw number of routes falls in a significant way.
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Neither of those is a good outcome for Schultz’s fantasy value, especially with the position being as deep as it’s ever been. In years past, simply being tethered to an elite offense would be enough to give an athletic option like Schultz the inside track to a top-12 ranking, but that’s not the case anymore.
He’s on the list of TEs I’d consider in the late rounds if I truly punt on the position, but I’m not prioritizing Schultz. For me, he’s in the same tier as Luke Musgrave and Cole Kmet. If I’m truly punting the position, I’m just waiting until the final round and taking my favorite remaining option.
It’s bold to completely ignore the position this season. That said, if you’re doing it, go all in. The production in this range is going to be volatile, and you’ll want to be aggressive.
In this roster build, don’t draft a tight end that you’re not comfortable dropping. You’re likely going to be cycling through options, so why spend anything besides your final pick on addressing the position?
Create a plan and stick to it.
