Kyle Pitts’ NFL journey through his first three seasons has produced a mixed bag of fantasy football results. Former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith didn’t exactly get the most out of an exceptionally talented tight end prospect over the last two years — which was highlighted by Jonnu Smith’s frustrating role in the passing offense last season.
Now with quarterback Kirk Cousins under center and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson in town, what can fantasy managers expect from Pitts in 2024?
Kyle Pitts’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 147.9
- Receptions: 69.8
- Receiving Yards: 951.3
- Receiving TDs: 3.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Pitts This Year?
Those in search of a case to promote an optimistic fantasy outlook for Pitts in 2024 should look no further than Cousins’ impact on Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson during their time together in Minnesota.
Hockenson’s Fantasy Production With Cousins Under Center
- 2022: 53 receptions for 478 yards and 3 TDs in 8 games (TE2 during that span)
- 2023: 60 receptions for 519 yards and 3 TDs in 10 games (TE3 during that span)
For those of you wondering, Hockenson averaged 6.2 receptions and 55.3 receiving yards with Cousins under center. Translation, Cousins has no problem peppering a reliable pass-catching TE with targets in this offensive scheme.
That undoubtedly will have overlapping concepts due to Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and the aforementioned Robinson both working on the Los Angeles Rams coaching staff under Sean McVay.
Back to Pitts for a moment. His fantasy upside was immediately apparent after he caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards on 110 targets for a TE6 fantasy finish in his rookie year. On the flip side, Pitts has failed to top 700 yards or 55 receptions over the last two seasons, which pushed him outside of the top 12 at the position in full-PPR formats.
Does the context of subpar quarterback play with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke under center perhaps shed some light on why Pitts has underperformed over the last two years? Possibly.
Could Pitts’ injuries over the previous two seasons have contributed too? Sure, it’s possible.
Yet, despite all of Pitts’ outstanding physical ability, it’s hard to feel 100% confident that we are looking at a surefire top-five TE at this very moment.
The early impressions we’ve seen from training camp are definitely encouraging. That has me buying into the optimism entering the year with just Drake London to contend with for an alpha target share in 2024.
Pitts’ current ADP at No. 60 overall (TE6) suggests the fantasy community is also buying into a big bounce-back year from the Florida product. For some additional context, Pitts is currently going ahead of George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Evan Engram.
The offseason moves, both on the actual roster and along the Falcons’ coaching staff, rightfully give Pitts’ believers hope entering the 2024 NFL season. Few players ever possess the raw pass-catching prowess, body control, and movement skills at the TE position.
Kyle doing Kyle things pic.twitter.com/AoGJnavevy
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) July 30, 2024
This feels like a make-or-break year for Pitts. Personally, I’d rather wait another round or two later based on the TE depth in 2024. The upside is present enough to warrant this selection — even if it does feel a bit too pricey for my taste.