Green Bay Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks earned 6+ targets in three of four games to end the regular season and scored in the Wild Card win over the Dallas Cowboys. Add that to the positive reviews coming out of camp, and he’s turned into a popular sleeper fantasy football pick in the later stages of drafts.
What is the realistic upside case for Wicks in 2024, and how much of a priority should you place on the promising second-year receiver?
Dontayvion Wicks’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 144 (98 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 46
- Receiving Yards: 685
- Receiving TDs: 5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Wicks This Year?
It’s common to see a rookie receiver develop throughout his first season, and that was very much the case for Wicks. Through Week 9, he had a 20+ yard grab in just one game, but he did so in five of his seven games to round out the regular season and looked great in doing so.
#Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks has immense potential as he enters his sophomore season.
“He could be a true #1 WR for the Packers,” via @PFF_Sam.
Wicks, 23, caught 39 passes for 581 yards & 4 TDs as a rookie.
A breakout season could be in store for Wicks. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/mQZwY3EoQN
— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) June 24, 2024
- 2023 Puka Nacua (2.60)
- 2016 Tyreek Hill (2.28)
- 2019 Hunter Renfrow (2.09)
- 2023 Dontayvion Wicks (2.04)
There’s your entire list of rookies, drafted in the fifth round or later, that saw 50+ targets and averaged at least 2.0 yards per route run. That’s pretty good company, and with Green Bay’s offense clearly on the rise behind Jordan Love, I understand the optimism within our industry surrounding the former Cavalier.
My problem with the labeling of Wicks as a big-time breakout is the definition of “breakout.” Does that mean he’s a regular in your starting lineup? If so, I’m not comfortable projecting anything like that.
I view Jayden Reed as the Packers’ WR1, with the other three receivers (Wicks, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs) vying for looks. That trio earned a target on 19.4% of their routes run last season, a rate that I’d argue is at risk of declining with Reed’s ascension. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume it’s stable.
Last season, 12.5 PPR points per game was good for WR33 (Christian Kirk). I looked over the past decade and noticed that of the 71 receivers with a year or less of NFL experience that averaged 12.5 ppg in a season, only six (8.5%) were targeted on fewer than 20% of their routes.
- 2014 Brandin Cooks (NO)
- 2015 Allen Hurns (JAX)
- 2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
- 2018 Calvin Ridley (ATL)
- 2019 Calvin Ridley (ATL)
- 2019 DJ Chark Jr. (JAX)
You’ll notice that all six of those instances either came at the hands of a QB with a Hall of Fame résumé and 10+ years of experience (Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees) or an outlier scoring season. In these seasons, Hurns scored 40% of his career touchdowns while Chark punched in 34.8%.
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Love is better than we all thought and very well compensated, but he doesn’t have the experience or the résumé of the other quarterbacks that facilitated such a season.
That leaves us with needing an outlier scoring season. Of course, that can happen to anyone; that’s why it’s called an “outlier.” But we’re in the business of evaluating what is most likely to occur. Nothing we saw last season hints that such a season is possible in 2024.
Percentage of targets that came in the end zone
- Watson: 26.4%
- Doubs: 15.6%
- Wicks: 3.4%
I’m not suggesting that Wicks isn’t worth a pick once we get into the double-digit rounds. I’d just be cautious in building your roster under the assumption that he’ll be on your Flex radar.
At Wicks’ ADP, that’s a lofty expectation. It very well could happen, but as the preseason hype continues to come in, I’d encourage you to be cautious with your draft capital.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Dontayvion Wicks
Reed’s WR35 ADP is the highest among Green Bay wide receivers. Watson is next at WR43, and Doubs is not far behind at WR54. Wicks, meanwhile, is the cheapest of the bunch at WR63.
I want to like Wicks, but I can’t rank him much higher than his ADP, which is exactly where I have him. That doesn’t mean I don’t want to take shots on him in the final round of some of my drafts, though.
Things happen during an NFL season. Watson has struggled to stay on the field. Reed seems to be destined for less than an every-down role. Injuries can happen to any player.
There are certainly scenarios where Wicks could end up in a more prominent role than he’s currently projected for. Given what he showed us last season, there’s reason to believe that if given the opportunity, he would thrive. That’s worth the gamble at the cost of free.
Nevertheless, I caution fantasy managers against getting overzealous with Wicks. This is still a fifth-round sophomore who commanded a mere 11.7% target share as a rookie. He was better than expected and a legitimately good receiver, but not exactly close to being a relevant fantasy asset.
Take some shots. Just don’t be afraid to cut bait early in the season if Wicks’ role looks similar to what it was last season.