The New England Patriots face low expectations this season — like, really low. Many experts and oddsmakers believe they’re ticketed for a terrible record and a top draft pick.
But I’m higher on the 2024 Patriots than most. In my season win-loss predictions piece, I gave the Patriots a 9-8 record — admittedly an aggressive take. I’ve since shifted course and now have the Patriots at 8-9, which still would greatly exceed expectations. By the way, one of the most respected voices in football analytics has the Patriots going 7-10, so we’re not far off.
With all that said, nine losses still are nine losses and likely would prevent New England from reaching the playoffs. Let’s go over the Patriots’ 2024 schedule, then discuss the games I think they’ll lose.
2024 New England Patriots Season Schedule
Most measurements, including projected strength of schedule, indicate the Patriots have one of the NFL‘s toughest schedules in 2024. That might be true, but I don’t think it’s that bad.
The opening three-game stretch could be softer than many realize, and some winnable games are in the middle. It’s no cupcake, but it’s not a total gauntlet.
Week 1: at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 2: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 3: at New York Jets
Week 4: at San Francisco 49ers
Week 5: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 6: vs. Houston Texans
Week 7: at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Week 8: vs. New York Jets
Week 9: at Tennessee Titans
Week 10: at Chicago Bears
Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Week 12: at Miami Dolphins
Week 13: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Arizona Cardinals
Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills
Predicting the Patriots Losses This Season
Week 1: at Cincinnati Bengals
This is the game I flipped on. I originally had the Patriots winning this game, but I just can’t give that much credit to first-year head coach Jerod Mayo and a rebuilding roster. But I still believe it’s a winnable game, largely due to the Bengals’ slow starts under Zac Taylor.
2019: 0-4 (lost opener)
2020: 1-2-1 (lost opener)
2021: 3-1 (overtime win in opener)
2022: 2-2 (overtime loss in opener)
2023: 1-3 (lost opener)
You can’t deny that trend, regardless of how good you think Cincinnati is. History suggests Taylor won’t have the Bengals ready to go, and a competent, Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team probably would take advantage. Remember, New England nearly upset the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 last season.
Still, I’m just not sure Mayo and company will be ready for this kind of upset.
Week 4: at San Francisco 49ers
This doesn’t really need much explaining. No matter what kind of pretzel you twist yourself into, you still can’t craft a cogent argument for the Patriots winning this game. The 49ers have one of the three best rosters in football, and New England arguably has one of the worst.
It might be a different story if this game were at Gillette Stadium, but even then, I couldn’t pick the Patriots.
Week 6: vs. Houston Texans
I’d be tempted to take the Patriots if this game were earlier in the season. I think the Texans will be good, but I also wouldn’t be shocked by a slow start and a mini-sophomore slump for C.J. Stroud. That stuff happens all the time in the NFL.
But I expect the Texans to find their stride by the time they roll into Gillette Stadium in Week 6. Houston’s talent on both sides of the ball will be too much for New England.
Week 8: vs. New York Jets
I’m picking the Patriots to beat the Jets on the road in the Week 3 edition of “Thursday Night Football.” The Jets are a trendy preseason pick, but I don’t believe in Robert Saleh, and I’ll believe a 40-year-old, post-Achilles-tear Aaron Rodgers is still on top of his game when I see it.
That said, the Jets are loaded on offense and defense, and if Rodgers stays healthy this season, he probably wins at least one game against New England.
Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is an interesting game. The Rams played ahead of their rebuild schedule in 2023, but was it a fluke?
It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Los Angeles regress in 2024. But Matthew Stafford still is a top-tier quarterback, and Sean McVay arguably is the best coach in the NFL. This game will be close, but I’m going with the Rams in a matchup that begins a three-game losing streak for the Patriots.
Week 12: at Miami Dolphins
I have the Patriots beating Miami in Week 5 at Gillette Stadium, but there’s no way I’m picking them in both games against the Dolphins. Miami has won six of its last seven games against New England, including sweeps in two of the last three campaigns, and Tua Tagavoila was its starting QB in all but one matchup.
Tagovailoa has the Patriots’ number, and it’s hard for me to envision New England suddenly cracking the code.
Week 13: vs. Indianapolis Colts
I have the Patriots 6-6 at this point in the season. They look like a team that can lose to anyone but also can play above their weight class. As such, there needs to be both upsets and disappointing losses.
MORE: Simulate the 2024 NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
This game falls into the latter category. The Patriots should beat the overrated Colts, but their yearly struggles against mobile quarterbacks show up again with Anthony Richardson turning in a statement performance. I could go either way on this game, but I needed to find a gut-punch loss somewhere.
Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have been competitive against the Bills in their last few meetings, including a home victory in 2023. They also haven’t shown any fear when playing in Buffalo. However, Josh Allen and the Bills’ new-look offense should be clicking by Week 16, and I just don’t know whether the Patriots will be ready to win in that environment.
Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills
If the Patriots are 8-8 through 16 games, there’s a non-zero chance they’ll be playing for a playoff spot in Week 18. Unfortunately, I think they’ll be swept by the Bills, ending Mayo’s otherwise impressive first season on a sour note.
However, if New England is eliminated from playoff contention before Week 18, wouldn’t this be a great spot to start Drake Maye over Jacoby Brissett? I believe Brissett will start as long as the Patriots are in contention, but as soon as playoffs are off the table, Maye should get a shot.
2024 Patriots record prediction: 8-9
Potential Wild Card Games on the Eagles’ Schedule
Week 3: at New York Jets
I have the Patriots going 2-2 in their first four games, including wins against the Seahawks and Jets. If that happens, there will be a new narrative across New England.
But the Week 3 showdown in New York is a major swing game. If the Patriots win, they’ll be no worse than 1-2 and potentially 2-1 if they beat Seattle or Cincinnati. But a loss could leave New England with a losing record ahead of the 49ers game, which the Patriots likely will lose.
If Rodgers and the Jets still are figuring things out, the Patriots must take advantage.
Week 7: at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
The Jaguars are better than the Patriots; there’s no doubt about that. But international games are weird, with the setting favoring neither team.
I have the Patriots winning this game due to an erratic performance from Trevor Lawrence. New England has multiple ball-hawking playmakers on defense, and the turnover-prone Lawrence could play right into their hands.
FREE: Subscribe to PFN’s NFL Newsletter
I also don’t believe Jacksonville’s defense is anything special.
However, this is New England’s only “break” between games against the 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, and Jets. If the Patriots also lose this game, they could be in dire straits.
Week 10: at Chicago Bears
Will the Bears be as good as everyone expects? Maybe, but there’s no guarantee that Caleb Williams will justify the hype in Week 1. Many people in Chicago haven’t won anything, and it’s hard to develop winning DNA overnight.
So, I have this game as a toss-up and am leaning Patriots. But if it goes the other way, New England could be looking at anything from a four- to five-game losing streak. This will be a tough road game, but it’s one the Patriots might need to win to stay afloat.