You wouldn’t take your driver’s test without ever getting behind the wheel prior, would you? Taking part in a fantasy football mock draft that mirrors the settings of your league is a savvy move, but if you don’t have time to do that, I’ve run through one below to give you an idea of where certain players go and what strategies are deployed.
2024 Mock Draft | Non-PPR
1.01) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular-season games with the Niners.
CMC had four games last season with at least 100 rushing yards and five receptions. That number sounds impressive without any context, but what if I told you that no other player has had four such games over the past two seasons?
The trick in owning the first-overall pick isn’t necessarily who you use it on but rather how you build a roster around the uniquely gifted McCaffrey. I like how this manager goes about doing it, but there is certainly a strong argument to be made for a power-RB strategy where you look to dominate the position and opt to rely on depth at receiver.
1.02) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Is the top tier at the receiver position a class of one? It’s certainly possible — CeeDee Lamb does it all.
Last season, he ranked fifth in the NFL in deep receptions while also leading the league in slot receptions. His connection with Dak Prescott is nothing short of special, and the target competition is nothing short of limited.
Lamb had seven games with double-digit catches last season, a number that not only led the league but was more than Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for.
1.03) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill has posted a target share north of 31% and a production-over-expectation rate of over 20% in both of his seasons with the Dolphins. Simply put, he’s as heavily used as anyone in the game while also being as efficient with those looks as anyone.
Defenses have completely given up on trying to use man coverage against him (just 19.5% of his fantasy points with Miami have come in such spots) and I’d argue that as he and Tua Tagovailoa continue to hone their connection, zone coverages might be even more vulnerable than man schemes.
Hill hinted this offseason that Jaylen Waddle is the future of the position for the Dolphins and he may be right – but the future isn’t now.
1.04) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
The next time Ja’Marr Chase averages under two yards per route run will be the first, an elite threshold that puts him in rarified air to begin his career. We know the highlight-play potential is there with every snap (17 deep touchdowns since entering the league, tied with Mike Evans for the most in the NFL), but I’m encouraged by the Bengals gradually upping Chase’s slot usage.
There isn’t a QB-WR tandem I trust more long-term than what Cincinnati offers. With Burrow nearing health, I’m expecting another monster season in 2024.
1.05) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Might Bijan Robinson be the next CMC, but on a more streamlined path to greatness? McCaffrey entered the league and his Carolina Panthers won 11 games – they haven’t posted a winning season since and their lack of support around him may have contributed to the early career injuries that he suffered.
Instead of starting in a great spot, Robinson took his lumps as a rookie and is now in a position to truly thrive with Kirk Cousins giving this offense a realistic shot at reaching the potential so many of us assume they have.
- How many RBs had more 5+ target games than Robinson in 2023?
- How many rookie RBs since 2021 have had more 10+ yard runs in a season than Robinson?
- How many bad things are you going to hear me say about Robinson?
The answer to all those questions is the same. Zero. Nothing in Robinson’s profile worries me and he is getting the benefit from a complete offensive overhaul at the perfect time – it is impossible to “reach” on Atlanta’s second-year star this summer.
1.06) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
I’m old enough to remember when we weren’t sure if St. Brown’s late breakout in 2021 was real.
PPG since St. Brown’s breakout in Week 13, 2021
- Justin Jefferson: 21.1
- Tyreek Hill: 20.2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
- Cooper Kupp: 19.6
- CeeDee Lamb: 19.6
He’s posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28%, and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone. St. Brown can get open in a phone booth – it’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations.
1.07) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Consider this – Hall finished fifth among running backs who played at least 12 games on a per-game basis in fantasy points despite just 25 red zone touches. The four RBs ahead of him averaged 56.
MORE: Fantasy Team Names | Fantasy League Names
The Packers ranked fifth in average yardage per drive during the final two seasons of the Aaron Rodgers era and even if that level of success doesn’t translate one-to-one for the 2024 Jets, Hall’s expected points per touch will increase and his volume is unlikely to take a step back. He had 5+ catches or a rushing score in 10 of his final 13 games last season – this is a rare skill set that now gets the benefit of the doubt under center.
1.08) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s important to see the forest through the trees when it comes to Brown. Was his end to 2023 less than ideal? It was, but fantasy is a game of looking at the big picture. When doing that, there’s no way to label Philadelphia’s WR1 as anything but elite.
Here are the players over the past decade with a pair of 1,4000 receiving yard seasons before their sixth season:
- Justin Jefferson
- Michael Thomas
- Julio Jones
- A.J. Brown
That’s nice company and I don’t see Brown slowing down. His end zone target count has increased each season of his career, he has reached 2.5 yards per route run every year, and he has seen at least a quarter of his team’s targets in four straight campaigns. There may be a down week now and again – but that’s like the wealthy complaining that the temperature of their pool isn’t up to par or that their Escalade needs a tune-up.
Relax. You’re in a good spot.
1.09) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I understand the skepticism in banking on a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, but I’d argue that a 65-year-old Rodgers might be able to help Wilson reach new levels of production.
Bottom 5 in Fantasy Production Relative to Expectation Last Season
76. Garrett Wilson: -25.6%
77. Elijah Moore: -27.9%
78. Zay Jones: -30.2%
79. Robert Woods: -30.4%
80. Jonathan Mingo: -39%
During Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay, none of his four qualified receivers finished even 10% below expectation (Christian Watson led the league in that metric).
Over the past two seasons, Wilson has owned the lowest aDOT among receivers with 600+ unrealized air yards. That may sound complicated – essentially, the targets he has earned haven’t been of the high-risk variety, and yet, the Jets have still struggled to effectively get him the ball.
That changes now. You’re going to want to be along for the ride.
1.10) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Over the past four seasons, six times has a receiver averaged at least 15 PPR PPG while playing at least 10 games alongside a rookie signal-caller – that’s six more instances in which WR has averaged 15+ PPR PPG in a season spent with Sam Darnold.
Jefferson’s historic start to his career is no secret, and he’s capable of producing under any circumstances. That said, dynasty managers are heavily pulling for J.J. McCarthy to take over this team sooner rather than later.
There’s more risk at a “slow” start to this season than in years past for, my money, the best receiver on planet Earth, but I wouldn’t expect that to last long, and his best days could well come at the end of the season as McCarthy begins to develop.
For the record, I’ll have Jefferson labeled as a late first-round pick in this format no matter the outcome of Jordan Addison’s legal issues – he transcends target competition.
1.11) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
If you’re buying stock in an offense heading into 2024, the Detroit Lions are on the shortlist, and leading that charge is their explosive second-year tailback. Despite never truly being unleashed as a rookie (just two games with over 15 carries), Gibbs found paydirt 11 times last season and quickly became a player to fear in space.
With nothing of substance changing in Detroit, why would we not expect growth? Yes, the presence of David Montgomery (career-high 13 rushing TDs last season) caps his ceiling in a way that makes him competing for the fantasy crown at the position highly unlikely, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lead your backfield and do it at a high level.
Everything in Gibbs’ profile suggests that efficiency will be a strength, thus making any extension of his role highly valuable and vaulting him into the first-round conversation.
Rookies To See 70+ Targets and 10+ Rushing TDs
-
- Jahmyr Gibbs (2023)
- Saquon Barkley (2018)
- LaDainian Tomlinson (2001)
- Edgerrin James (1999)
- Marshall Faulk (1994)
1.12) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor navigated injuries last season, which has suppressed some of the excitement around him for 2024. Take advantage of that. Around those bumps and bruises, he averaged 21.4 carries for 97.4 rushing yards and ran for a touchdown in each of his final five games last season.
In his first five games, he averaged 6.8 PPR PPG as a pass catcher. I’m not saying Taylor will combine those two stretches, but that sort of production is in the range of outcomes for a 25-year-old back with elite seasons already on his résumé.
If you extend that rushing yardage number and his reception numbers from that first stretch for a full season, we are talking about over 1,600 rushing yards in addition to 50+ catches. If you were wondering, that stat line has been accomplished one single time since DeMarco Murray did it back in 2014 (Josh Jacobs in 2022).
I like this offense to finish as a top-10 unit with Anthony Richardson under center and if that’s going to be the case, Taylor is a strong bet to return a profit on his ADP.
2.01) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry isn’t going to be handed the ball on 53% of his snaps like he was last season at Tennessee. I think that’s a good thing. In a vanilla offense that offered no misdirection, Henry ran for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Everyone knows Steph Curry is going to launch 3’s. Everyone knows Aaron Judge is going to swing for the fences. Every husband knows that when he does the grocery shopping, things will be done incorrectly.
Some things are just inevitable and cannot be stopped – Henry is one of those things. He now joins forces with Todd Monken, a creative coordinator who led Lamar Jackson to the MVP in his first season. I’m not ruling out an increase in routes run for Henry this season, but he doesn’t need it to repeat what he did last season and prove worthy of a selection around the 1-2 turn, especially in a non-PPR setting.
2.02) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
The profile is elite, and the stage is set for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the next big thing at the position. Last season, 38 receivers earned at least 21% of their team’s targets. That’s a low bar to clear for an alpha receiver, something that Harrison certainly should be considered on this Arizona team.
Over the past decade, 13 times has a qualified rookie receiver hit that threshold and they averaged 14.7 points per game. I think it’s reasonably safe to label that as a floor and that number would have been WR18 in 2023.
Of that sample, Evans (2014), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Jefferson (2020), and Chase (2021) all scored at least 17 points per game as high-pedigree rookies, a number that would have ranked as a top-10 player at the position last season.
Those are the waters in which we are swimming. This isn’t 2005. Rookie receivers are entering the league, ready to produce at a high level. Looking past Harrison in the early going simply because of “not having seen it at the professional level” is leaving meat on the bone.
2.03) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Derek Tate and I have argued on The PFN Fantasy Podcast about what to expect from the 25-year-old this season: either you pencil in regression with the addition of Stefon Diggs or you view him as an ascending talent that is the alpha of this passing game.
I believe in the latter.
Collins was the second most efficient fantasy receiver in the league last season (36.8% more points than the average WR would have scored given his exact usage), and I saw all I needed to when it comes to his connection with C.J. Stroud.
This summer, Stroud went out of his way to say that he wants this offense to be more of a vertical threat in 2024. That just so happens to be the place Collins has the most room to grow (47th at the position in percentage of targets that came 15+ yards down the field).
Is it possible that what we saw from Collins last season was just the tip of the iceberg as opposed to the best season he’ll produce?
He showcased rare versatility for a big receiver for his age. Collins’ slot target rate and deep target rate were in the same vicinity, a unique blend of skills. That leads me to believe that this QB-WR connection has a chance to mirror (surpass?) what the Bengals have.
I’m OK with walking the walk by drafting him in the second round.
2.04) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Only one player in the league converted a higher percentage of his air yards while also holding a higher aDOT than Puka Nacua in 2023 (Collins). That’s just one more chance for me to talk up Houston’s star.
Nacua was amazing during his historic rookie campaign and demonstrated route maturity well beyond his years. He was able to adjust when the Rams welcomed Cooper Kupp back, a valuable skill with the veteran poised to rebound in a big way.
We may have seen Nacua’s best season, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bust. I expect the counting numbers to be strong this season, I just have a little concern that the consistency week-over-week could fade.
Last season, Kupp spent 65.4% of his time in the slot, well ahead of Nacua’s 30%. Those opportunities, of course, are not everything, but they are important when it comes to statistical stability because they are the high percentage looks.
I think Nacua and Kupp may give us similar final stat lines, with the veteran proving to be more of a consistent producer and the budding star giving us a wider range of outcomes.
2.05) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Drake London ranks 12th in target rate since entering the league, proving to anyone with eyes that he’s more than capable of separating.
Up to this point, that hasn’t been enough. Despite his ability to earn looks, London’s fantasy production has checked in 10.1% below expectation (for reference, Tutu Atwell and Allen Lazard are in the same range).
That all changes this season as long as Kirk Cousins enters the season at full strength.
Passer Rating Ranks, 2023
- Kirk Cousins: 3rd
- Desmond Ridder: 26th
This is the “B” version of the Garrett Wilson profile. I think he’s slightly behind Wilson in raw talent, and Cousins’ upside is a tick behind that of Aaron Rodgers. But the general idea is the same in that we have an uber-talented prospect who is in prime position to be unlocked.
Investing a top-20 pick in London isn’t for the faint of heart and, in my opinion, requires a “safer” build around him. This manager does a good job of that (keep reading), and if you can execute your plan, I have no issue rolling the dice on an impressive physical profile like this.
2.06) Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans has been one of the most stable fantasy options since he entered the league, but could that be coming to an end?
READ MORE: Fantasy Football WR Busts To Avoid in 2024
I don’t think most people understand how thin of a line he walked last season, relying on unsustainable production in close. He’s a freak athlete who makes a habit of breaking spreadsheets, but his current ADP, for me, reflects trying to chase his 2023 production more than it does properly projecting what is most likely to occur in 2024.
2.07) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have been a top-seven scoring offense in consecutive seasons, and the Indianapolis Colts, without their star quarterback for 13 games, finished 11th in points per game a season ago — ahead of the Packers, Texans, and Chiefs, to name a few.
Offensive environment isn’t everything, but it’s a good place to start. And I don’t think there’s any denying that both of these former All-Pros are in advantageous spots.
Can the Eagles with their lofty projected win total? Only time will tell on that front. But regardless of the number in the win column, I expect Saquon Barkley to have a good time leading this offense.
And yes, I said “leading.” D’Andre Swift carried the rock 78 more times in 2023 than he did in any of his four seasons with the Lions, yet he was able to sustain his career efficiency (4.6 yards per carry) thanks to the numerous ways the Eagles’ offense threatens defenses.
With Jalen Hurts’ unique skill set, Philadelphia spreads out defenses via shotgun snaps, a tendency that should work well, given how good we’ve seen Barkley be in space.
Since 2021, offenses with 70% of first down snaps in shotgun
-
-
- 2021 Eagles: 73%
- 2022 Eagles: 72%
- 2023 Eagles: 70%
-
That’s the entire list. Barkley’s Giants didn’t clear 50% in any of his three seasons since his ACL tear in 2020, but they did trend up over that stretch, and it helped him total 1,242 yards and 10 scores in 14 games while playing for the third-worst scoring offense in the league.
2.08) Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Much like Hill, Davante Adams is a veteran receiver who moved on from a Hall of Fame quarterback. But you’d never know it by looking at his stat lines.
Vegas’ WR1 has finished top three in target share in both of his seasons with the Raiders and has hauled in 22 touchdowns across those 34 games.
The problem, of course, is the offensive environment. The Raiders were a bottom-10 offense in both scoring and red-zone trips in 2023, resulting in Adams’ lowest end-zone target count (nine) since 2015.
I wish I could express extreme optimism in Vegas’ offense taking a step forward, but if that were the case, their featured option would be going a handful of picks higher.
At the end of the day, Adams is a low-risk investment who is unlikely to be the reason you lose your league. He’s commanded 10+ targets per game for six straight seasons, and a seventh feels inevitable. He may lack the game-breaking upside of the upper echelon at the position, but that shouldn’t prevent you from looking his way in the second half of Round 2.
2.09) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane is on my fantasy football RB busts 2024 list, but there’s no denying the upside. I certainly wouldn’t blame you for chasing it — you just need to be aware of the risk before jumping in.
2.10) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are a frustrating team for fantasy managers. They are such a potent offense, but part of what makes them effective is that they don’t rely exclusively on any one of their pass catchers.
That said, I feel pretty strongly that Brandon Aiyuk is putting distance between himself and the field for that honor, a stance that has him sliding into my second round and profiling as a legitimate building block.
MORE: Brandon Aiyuk Trade Request: Best and Worst Destinations for Fantasy
Aiyuk was the most efficient receiver in the league last season (41.3% fantasy points over expectation), and it’s not as if that was some sort of outlier. He’s seen his yards per route run increase in consecutive seasons and showcased rare versatility by seeing spikes in both his aDOT and slot usage in 2023.
There is some natural regression to expect when it comes to Brock Purdy, but I’m not sure Aiyuk feels that in the same way that Deebo Samuel or George Kittle will. A trade would result in a slight tweak of value in one direction or the other depending on the landing spot, though my viewing of him as a WR1, strong target earner isn’t going to change.
2.11) Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
In 2023, Kyren Williams led running backs in opportunities per game (targets + rushes) and routes per game while ranking behind only Achane in the percentage of carries that picked up 5+ yards (42.1%).
Williams checked every box imaginable and then some. But will it sustain?
The drafting of Blake Corum has fueled the idea that Williams’ workload won’t be as overwhelming as it was last year, but it doesn’t need to be for him to still deserve consideration in the first two rounds.
Williams had more games with multiple touchdowns (four) than scoreless games (three) during his breakout campaign, thus solidifying his floor. You’re not drafting him for a repeat; you’re drafting him with the understanding that even 75% of what he gave you last season is good for a top-10 RB finish.
2.12) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
I want Chris Olave to be unleashed in a way that I expect Garrett Wilson to be this season, but I don’t see it on the horizon. Among the 48 receivers with at least 150 targets over the past two seasons, the Saints’ WR1 has the seventh-highest rate of unrealized air yards (61.5%).
We continue to see it. An elite talent at the WR position can overcome average (or worse) QB play at some level, but not enough to rank among the truly elite. DK Metcalf, Adams, and the aforementioned Wilson all rank in the top third of the NFL in that stat over that stretch. Raw talent can only do so much.
That said, Olave has been able to produce spot-on with his target expectations from a fantasy perspective despite the marginal quality of opportunity (the Saints have ranked no higher than 20th in pass rate over expectation in either of his seasons).
I expect that to again be the case in 2024. With his slot usage trending up, Olave’s efficiency could take a step forward. Still, I don’t think he has a ceiling like those who came off the board in front of him in this exercise.
2024 Non-PPR Mock Draft Rounds 3-6
3.01) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
3.02) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
3.03) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.04) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, SF
3.05) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.06) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
3.07) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
3.08) Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.09) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
3.10) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
3.11) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
3.12) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
4.01) Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
4.02) Josh Allen, QB, BUF
4.03) Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
4.04) Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX
4.05) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
4.06) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
4.07) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
4.08) George Pickens, WR, PIT
4.09) Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
4.10) James Cook, RB, BUF
4.11) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
4.12) C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
5.01) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
5.02) Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
5.03) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
5.04) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.05) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
5.06) Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
5.07) Evan Engram, TE, JAX
5.08) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
5.09) Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
5.10) Rachaad White, RB, TB
5.11) Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
5.12) Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.01) George Kittle, TE, SF
6.02) David Montgomery, RB, DET
6.03) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
6.04) Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
6.05) Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
6.06) Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
6.07) Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
6.08) Tank Dell, WR, HOU
6.09) Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
6.10) Jordan Love, QB, GB
6.11) Jayden Reed, WR, GB
6.12) D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI