There’s no wrong way to build a dynasty fantasy football team. In a format like this, every player has a wide range of outcomes; thus, it’s difficult to get a feel for what your opponents will do.
That is, of course, unless you practice. Here’s a look at a non-PPR dynasty Superflex mock draft, with a focus on the first two rounds and the thought process that goes into building a contender.
2024 Dynasty Superflex Mock Draft | Non-PPR
1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Shuffle up and deal with the elite quarterbacks however you’d like. It’s irresponsible, in my opinion, to open a Superflex draft with anything besides a signal-caller at 1.01. The stability of this position is second to none, and with needing two of them, why not lock in a top-tier option when given the chance?
In drafting a QB first overall, you not only get the strong weekly production with the narrowest range of outcomes, but you also open yourself up to reading the draft board in the coming rounds. Many managers will feel the pressure of needing to reach on a second quarterback, but you’re afforded the luxury of waiting if you so choose because you took on essentially no risk when filling your QB1 slot.
As for Hurts himself, the addition of Saquon Barkley is more additive to this offense as a whole than he is a threat to subtract in a major way from his quarterback’s statistical bottom line. Hurts’ carry count could fall a touch, but the quality of each figure to rise due to the defensive attention his All-Pro running back will demand.
Hurts nearly had more red-zone rush attempts (43) than pass attempts (50) in 2023. And until the NFL finds a way to slow him down in close, his short-yardage rushing production is the single safest aspect of fantasy football.
We can fight as to who the best QB is at this spot, but don’t get cute and move off of the position at the top of the board. Please.
1.02) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Can we agree that Hollywood Brown has yet to return on the draft capital that was spent on him as the 25th overall pick? I don’t think that’s a hot take, and yet, the level of upgrade he presents to this offense is difficult to quantify.
Outside of Rashee Rice, Kansas City’s next two most-involved receivers in terms of targets per game combined for 629 receiving yards and four touchdowns with 29 cumulative games played. During his underwhelming start to his career, Brown is averaging 729 receiving yards and 5.6 touchdowns per season in an average of 14.4 games played.
The talent of Mahomes isn’t in doubt and his supporting cast would be exponentially stronger this season if Brown was the only add they made this offseason. Spoiler alert: it wasn’t. Burner Xavier Worthy was drafted to give this offense a different dimension, giving this offense the potential to again lead the league in scoring.
31 teams should be on alert after watching this clip of Mahomes and Xavier Worthy! 👏
(via @Chiefs)pic.twitter.com/qa1nJADodC
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) July 22, 2024
The ability of this defense to control games and Isiah Pacheco’s developmental curve may cap Mahomes’ volume on occasion, but he is firmly locked into the top tier of signal caller, and that means that I’m not even remotely considering a skill position player over him in a Superflex setting.
1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Maybe this Joe Brady offense isn’t as wide-open. Maybe the lack of receiver depth will hurt Josh Allen’s ceiling. Those are both possible outcomes and reasonable fears, but these elite quarterbacks have been able to elevate above these kinds of concerns.
Buffalo fell short during the playoffs, but Allen accounted for seven scores and ran for 70+ yards in both games — games that were in this system and with an underachieving receiver room.
At the end of the day, Allen checks all the boxes. His athleticism provides a floor, his size helps him stay on the field (one DNP over the past five seasons), and his NFL experience gives me confidence that he can figure out the passing game at a high enough level to pay off this draft price.
Why am I not considering Allen for the top spot? His offense taking a step back while Hurts’ trends in the other direction is a big part of that, with a minor dip in projection coming as the result of seeing the Patriots and Jets during the final two weeks of the fantasy postseason.
1.04) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Outside of increasing his reception, target, yardage, and touchdown count in each season of his NFL career, there really isn’t much to like in CeeDee Lamb. Sarcasm aside, I like Jake Ferguson as much as the next person, and Brandin Cooks is going to continue to get looks, but it’s no mistake that Lamb finished last season with 33 more catches than any of his teammates had targets.
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The ‘Boys will again be very competitive in the NFC’s ever-changing landscape, and that could put their best player in a position to peak at the perfect time.
Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:
- Week 14 vs. Bengals
- Week 15 at Panthers
- Week 16 vs. Buccaneers
- Week 17 at Eagles
1.05) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
There’s a ton to like here, both in Stroud’s set-up and his statistical trajectory. This franchise is committed to him, and with a pair of impressive receives yet to turn 26 years of age, the future might be even brighter than the present.
And that’s saying something.
Last season, 41.9% of Stroud’s fantasy points as a passer came via the deep ball. Then, the Texans went out and got him Stefon Diggs, a veteran presence who has seen 29% of his targets over the past two seasons come 15+ yards downfield, the best two-year stretch of his career.
That helps his prospects to build on what was a special rookie season. In the 2000’s, only three times has a QB had five games with 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns as a rookie:
- C.J. Stroud
- Justin Herbert
- Andrew Luck
The nice part? The impressive production didn’t end after their rookie campaign. In Year 2, Luck saw his completion percentage rise 6.1 points with his PPG jumping 5.8%. As for Herbert, he finished his sophomore season third in passing touchdowns and second in passing yards.
A repeat performance from Stroud would be just fine — the idea that 2024 might be even better than 2023 is intimidating for the 11 teams that don’t have him rostered.
1.06) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Does the two-time MVP need much of a sell job? Jackson averages 7.9 fantasy points per game with his legs for his career, a rate that could drop eventually, but as he enters his age-27 season, I’m not too worried about that athletic cliff coming into play any time soon.
The sprint plays make the highlight packages and take our breath away, but how about Jackson ranked third in the NFL in fantasy points per pass thrown? That ranked him ahead of the other Round 1 quarterbacks. Now imagine that he has a full season of experience in the Todd Monken system.
Invest with confidence.
1.07) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Might Robinson be the next CMC, but on a more streamlined path to greatness? McCaffrey entered the league and his Carolina Panthers won 11 games – they haven’t posted a winning season since and their lack of support around him may have contributed to the early career injuries that he suffered.
Instead of starting in a great spot, Robinson took his lumps as a rookie and is now in a position to truly thrive with Kirk Cousins giving this offense a realistic shot at reaching the potential so many of us assume they have.
- How many RBs had more 5+ target games than Robinson in 2023?
- How many rookie RBs since 2021 have had more 10+ yard runs in a season than Robinson?
- How many bad things are you going to hear me say about Robinson?
The answer to all those questions is the same. Zero. It’s rare to see a successful dynasty team, especially in Superflex, be built around a running back — I will admit that this manager will need to follow a unique path — but this kid is that sort of special and every one of his skills is gold for fantasy managers.
1.08) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Hill has posted a target share north of 31% and a production-over-expectation rate of over 20% in both of his seasons with the Dolphins. Simply put, he’s as heavily used as anyone in the game while also being as efficient with those looks as anyone.
Defenses have completely given up on trying to use man coverage against him (just 19.5% of his fantasy points with Miami have come in such spots) and I’d argue that as he and Tua Tagovailoa continue to hone their connection, zone coverages might be even more vulnerable than man schemes.
I’m not worried about him entering his age-30 season. We haven’t seen any signs of decline. As long as the team figures out a deal with Tua Tagovailoa, the elite production should remain for at least a few more seasons.
1.09) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
The next time Chase averages under two yards per route run will be the first, an elite threshold that puts him in rarified air to begin a career. We know the big-play potential is there with every snap (17 deep touchdowns since entering the league, tied with Mike Evans for the most in the league), but I am encouraged by the Bengals gradually upping his slot usage.
There isn’t a QB-WR tandem I trust more long-term than what Cincinnati offers, and with Burrow nearing health, I’m expecting another monster season in 2024. Consider that a warning to the rest of the league – this duo is going to be elite for years to come.
1.10) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Investing this heavily in Richardson, a player who essentially has 12 quarters of experience on his professional resume, can be scary. But if there is a profile to roll the dice on, this is it. His impact as a rusher was evident in his NFL debut, and given the overwhelming physical tools at his disposal, the fantasy floor is nothing short of elite.
There are some concerns about his throwing, but why? The two quarterbacks his size/speed combination has been most often compared to is that of Cam Newton and Josh Allen, fantasy cheat codes in their respective eras.
Rookie Richardson: 3.6% TD rate, 6.9 yards/pass, 59.5% complete
Rookie Cam Newton/Josh Allen: 3.7% TD rate, 7.3 yards/pass, 57.2% complete
The Colts invested heavily in their pass game this offseason with the re-signing of Michael Pittman Jr. and drafting of Adonai Mitchell, giving me confidence that the passing numbers will come around sooner rather than later.
This is an elite offense with a stable run game that plays in front of a defense that allowed a score on 38.9% of drives, the seventh-highest rate in the league. The stage is set for Richardson to break out in 2024 and potentially move into that top tier at the position for dynasty leagues that have their start-up draft in 2025.
1.11) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Consider this – Hall finished fifth among running backs who played at least 12 games on a per-game basis in fantasy points despite just 25 touches in the red zone. The four RBs ahead of him averaged 56.
The Packers ranked fifth in average yardage per drive during the final two seasons of the Aaron Rodgers era. Even if that level of success doesn’t translate one-to-one for the 2024 Jets, Hall’s expected points per touch will increase and his volume is unlikely to take a step back. He had 5+ catches or a rushing score in 10 of his final 13 games last season – this is a rare skill set that now gets the benefit of the doubt under center.
1.12) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
I’m old enough to remember when we weren’t sure if St. Brown’s late breakout in 2021 was real.
PPG since St. Brown’s breakout in Week 13, 2021:
- Justin Jefferson: 21.1
- Tyreek Hill: 20.2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
- Cooper Kupp: 19.6
- CeeDee Lamb: 19.6
He’s posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28% and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone. St. Brown can get open in a phone booth and it’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations.
The Lions committed to Jared Goff this offseason and have built a juggernaut that is loaded with young weapons. Buckle up, dynasty managers, this is going to be a fun run!
2.01) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Is Murray’s upside being overlooked a bit after an injury-plagued season? Now healthy, this is a legitimate offense. Marvin Harrison Jr. brings an alpha WR1 profile to town and Trey McBride proved plenty capable of winning at all levels in his second season.
I like Michael Wilson more than most and this backfield should continue to be productive. The nice part? Murray is going to be forced into a position to put up fantasy numbers in bunches. Last season, 78% of his fantasy points came with Arizona playing from behind, the second-highest rate among all qualified QBs (Bryce Young).
Why do I mention that? Game script. In 2023, 69.7% of yards gained last season by teams playing from behind came through the air, a nice increase from the 61.5% rate posted by teams when leading. When it comes to the trailing percentage for the Round 1 quarterbacks in this draft:
- Jackson: 23.9%
- Mahomes: 34.1%
- Allen: 40.6%
- Hurts: 41.5%
- Stroud: 51.3%
Murray has a higher floor than most give him credit for and with the youthful pass catchers supporting him, this is the best time to buy in.
2.02) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s easy to forget that Burrow easily cleared 4,000 passing yards and had at least 34 TD tosses in both 2021 and 2022. That puts him on a list with Aaron Rodgers, Allen, and Mahomes as the only QBs to do that in consecutive seasons before the age of 30 in the past 20 years.
I’m willing to overlook some of Burrow’s underwhelming metrics last season, one that he entered at far less than full strength. Remember the name Jake Browning? He finished second among ALL PLAYERS in fantasy points from Weeks 13-18.
That’s not an endorsement of Browning; it’s me attempting to highlight how favorable this spot is. Burrow is on the short list of posting truly special passing numbers. With him still rehabbing his shoulder to a degree, there’s a minor buying window right now that might not present itself again when it comes to investing in Cincinnati’s star.
2.03) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Over the past four seasons, six times has a receiver averaged at least 15 PPR PPG while playing at least 10 games alongside a rookie signal caller – that’s six more instances in which WR has averaged 15+ PPR PPG in a season spent with Sam Darnold.
Jefferson’s historic start to his career is no secret, and he’s capable of producing under any circumstances. That said, dynasty managers are heavily pulling for J.J. McCarthy to take over this team sooner rather than later.
There’s more risk at a “slow” start to this season than in years past for, my money, the best receiver on planet Earth. But I wouldn’t expect that to last long, and Jefferson’s best days could well come at the end of the season as McCarthy begins to develop.
It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Jefferson is an elite talent with major draft capital spent on his QB. You can withstand a few growing pains in 2024 for the years of elite production that will almost certainly follow.
2.04) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is entering his age-31 season and has been a fantasy asset on an every-other-year basis. In his last three seasons with at least 13 games, America’s QB has thrown for over 4,400 yards and at least 30 scores. An injury cost him five games in 2022, but his ratio stats since the beginning of that season have been nothing short of special.
Last two seasons, fantasy points per pass
- Prescott: 0.49
- Mahomes: 0.48
Last two seasons, Passer Rating
- Prescott: 100.0
- Mahomes: 99.1
Last two seasons, completion percentage
- Prescott: 68.2%
- Mahomes: 67.1%
The Cowboys ranked fourth in pass rate over expectation, and the shift to an aging Ezekiel Elliott as the bell cow is unlikely to force their hand when it comes to committing to the run. I’m not confident that the rushing numbers bounce back in a meaningful way, but the stability that comes with Prescott’s sheer volume in pass attempts makes him a Superflex building block.
2.05) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa is a bit of a polarizing fantasy asset in the year 2024. Last year, 99.5% of his fantasy points came through the air, something that drops both his ceiling and floor below the first-rounders in this draft.
Rushing production is a skeleton key to the top of the scoring board, but not every QB has to have that upside to lead your fantasy team. Tagovailoa ranks second in fantasy points score per pass attempt over the past two seasons (0.52) and the number of explosive playmakers this franchise has isolated him with makes a trend like that sustainable in my eyes.
Last season, Miami, as a team, averaged 16.3% more yards per catch after the reception than in 2022. That’s not likely to regress anytime soon, especially with Jaylen Wright added to this track team, which makes Tagovailoa the rare pocket passer that I feel good about for the next handful of years.
Will there be games where this three-headed backfield does the heavy lifting? Yes. But the passing game will continue to be hyper-efficient. Tagovailoa led the league in passing last season in an offense that ranked 12th in pass rate over expectation, and that’s plenty to slide him into the top 20.
2.06) Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
You mean the Packers took a QB in the late first round, let him develop behind a Hall of Famer, and when they unleashed him, he was fully ready to produce?
We’ve seen this story before, and with a plethora of young talent around him, Love is very much in a position to succeed at a QB1 level this season and for years to come. We saw nice development from him as last season progressed. That is something I expect to spill over into 2024 as he gains comfort with his weapons.
- Weeks 1-8: 6.4 yards per attempt
- Weeks 9-18: 7.7 yards per attempt
If you’re just starting your prep for the 2024 season (and beyond), this may feel optimistic.
First 18 career starts
- Love: 18.39 FPPG, 8.4 aDOT, 5.4% TD, 2.0% INT
- Burrow: 18.37 FPPG, 8.3 aDOT, 5.1% TD, 2.2% INT
Love may not project to be the next Rodgers, but his path to being Burrow 2.0 is reasonably clear. The profile is that promising, and this franchise knows how to take care of fantasy managers.
2.07) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Gibbs ran for 10 scores and caught 52 balls as a rookie, statistics that only become more impressive when you see the list of rookie backs to hit both of those thresholds in the 2000s:
- Saquon Barkley (2018)
- LaDainian Tomlinson (2001)
I’m not ready to put Detroit’s playmaker in that class quite yet, but it’s not far off. If he can eat into David Montgomery’s role now that he has established himself as an elite option, we might be having serious RB1 overall conversations in 12 months.
Investing in the running back is scary in a dynasty setting whenever you do it, but by grabbing Gibbs, you solidify your RB1 slot for the next handful of years and allow yourself to play the volume game to round out your starting roster.
2.08) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Remember when we had Hill and a young Mahomes? A tandem that we assumed would grow together and be unstoppable for upwards of a decade?
We might have that in Houston.
Collins ranked 13th at the position in target share (26.1%) last season while posting the second most yards per route run figure in the league (trailing, you guessed it, Hill). The 3.11 yards per route that he averaged in his age-25 season is difficult to contextualize. Over the past decade, here are the top six seasons by yards per route run from a receiver who played 10+ games and saw 50+ targets.
- Nico Collins (2023): 3.11
- Brandon Aiyuk (2023): 3.06
- Deebo Samuel (2021): 2.98
- Justin Jefferson (2023): 2.91
- CeeDee Lamb (2023): 2.80
- Odell Beckham Jr. (2014): 2.75
The majority of those seasons coming last year speak to where the rules stand, but the point remains that what Collins did in 2023 was all sorts of special — he did it with a quarterback in Stroud who is only going to get better.
I think that the addition of Diggs, while it may take some food off of his plate in the short term, is a net gain for Collins’ fantasy value. He gets to pick the brain of a player who spent years navigating NFL coverages that were geared to stop him. If Collins can learn the tricks of the trade and combine them with his natural gifts, there’s a world in which he pushes for first-round consideration in this format next season.
2.09) Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Sam Bradford wasn’t very good. Since his rookie season (2010), six times has a top overall pick thrown 33+ passes per game in his first season, and those six averaged 16.29 PPG. That number would have ranked as QB15 last season, creating a reasonable expectation for a QB in Williams who enters with as strong a supporting cast as any signal-caller in the history of the sport.
Five of those six aforementioned QBs averaged at least 17.15 PPG, a number that would have been QB12 in 2023. Take the average of those five and we are less than 1.5 PPG away from being a top-five performer at the position.
This is a dynasty draft, and Williams’ ceiling is unquestioned. The beauty is that we don’t have to wait to get him into our lineups. The USC product should be an asset from Day 1, and that could include a finishing kick that helps you win your league this year (Weeks 15-17: at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks).
2.10) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I view Lamb as his own tier at the receiver position, but Wilson is on the list of receivers that I consider live to finish as the WR2 this season.
That said, I can’t rank him like that. Rodgers’ presence can help elevate Wilson’s numbers to match his talent this year and, if we’re lucky, next. But after that, are we not going to be stuck in QB purgatory the way we have been in New York over the past two seasons?
There’s an appeal that comes with a receiver that can post consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in a horrible offensive environment, but I don’t want him having to do that again. This manager is taking more of a win-now approach and will look to layer in some “safer” options in the middle rounds as Wilson carries more long-term risk than the other skill players picked up to this point.
2.11) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
If you’re accustomed to looking at redraft boards or non-Superflex situations, seeing this name this low is jarring. McCaffrey has been fantasy royalty and has led many a fantasy championship to glory. Heck, he could well do that again this season.
That said, a startup dynasty draft is as much about building a juggernaut as much as it is about succeeding in the here and now. Generally speaking, I try to hop off of running backs a year or two early rather than risk being a year late.
History has taught us that is the play, especially when it comes to RBs that produce at such a level that we are willing to reach for them in this sort of environment.
- Marshall Faulk: after consecutive seasons north of 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, he never again ran for 1,000 yards or scored more than 11 touchdowns.
- LaDainian Tomlinson: after averaging 5.0 yards per carry and scoring 49 times over a two-season stretch, he scored just 33 times and averaged 3.8 yards per carry over his final four seasons.
- Todd Gurley: he hung it up after just six seasons, the last two of which didn’t feature a single touch gaining more than 35 yards.
I’m not forecasting a cliff for CMC, I’m just pivoting to other options if I can within the first two rounds of a league set-up like this.
2.12) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Much like Tyreek Hill, Brown has thrived in his two seasons post-trade and is showing no signs of slowing up. He has the comfort of his franchise QB being under center and has proven to us, now over a 34-game sample, that playing alongside another talented receiver in DeVonta Smith is not an issue.
I think we can pencil in Brown for 1,400-ish yards and 8-10 touchdowns this year, raw numbers that could land him higher than this in the end-of-season rankings. It is important to note, however, that not all monster seasons are created equal.
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Brown ended last season on a six-game scoring drought and hasn’t caught a 40-yard pass since mid-October. The addition of Saquon Barkley is unlikely to help a player in Brown who can exploit matchups at the highest level when featured but can also take a back seat when that’s not the case.
The good weeks will outnumber the poor ones, but the threat of a down week coming at the wrong time has me passing on him any earlier than this and searching for more weekly stability as I build out a roster with him as the centerpiece.
2024 Dynasty Non-PPR Superflex Mock Draft Rounds 3-5
3.01) Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
3.02) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.03) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
3.04) Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
3.05) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
3.06) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
3.07) Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
3.08) Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.09) Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
3.10) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
3.11) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
3.12) Drake London, WR, ATL
4.01) Brock Purdy, QB, SF
4.02) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
4.03) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
4.04) Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX
4.05) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
4.06) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
4.07) Davante Adams, WR, LV
4.08) Jared Goff, QB, DET
4.09) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
4.10) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
4.11) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
4.12) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
5.01) Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
5.02) James Cook, RB, BUF
5.03) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
5.04) Mike Evans, WR, TB
5.05) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
5.06) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.07) Jayden Reed, WR, GB
5.08) Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
5.09) Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
5.10) Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
5.11) Will Levis, QB, TEN
5.12) Zay Flowers, WR, BAL