After producing a career year as the feature back of the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022, Josh Jacobs’ disappointing final season with the silver and black gave the Green Bay Packers an opportunity to land an exceptionally productive running back on the open market via free agency this offseason.
Can fantasy football managers expect a return to the company of the elite RBs on an ascending Green Bay offense in 2024?
Josh Jacobs’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 265.2
- Rushing Yards: 1,179.6
- Rushing TDs: 9.6
- Receptions: 51.9
- Receiving Yards: 377.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Jacobs This Year?
Quite frankly, there is no way to sugarcoat this: Jacobs had a very rough 2023 NFL season.
Jacobs’ career-low 3.45 yards per carry was among the lowest marks of the year for a leading ball carrier and ranked outside of the top 50 among qualified running backs. For some additional perspective, Jacobs finished with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his 13 games last season.
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Both his rushing yards and rushing TDs dropped by 50% in 2023. Jacobs’ 805 rushing yards, 37 receptions for 296 yards, and six TDs led to a disappointing RB28 finish in full-PPR formats. This was a far cry from his 2,053 total yards and 12 TDs in 2022.
Hence, Jacobs’ fantasy outlook is polarizing entering the 2024 season. His move to Green Bay should improve his situation across the board.
Raiders’ Offense in 2023:
- Points Per Game: 19.5 (23rd)
- Total Offense: 289 yards per game (27th)
- Red Zone Trips: 47 (T-24th)
Packers’ Offense in 2023:
- Points Per Game: 23.8 (eighth)
- Total Offense: 348 yards per game (10th)
- Red Zone Trips: 64 (fifth)
The Green Bay offense boasts a young, ascending quarterback with a quality offensive line and a proven play-caller. Jacobs could find himself in a potentially great fantasy situation if this offense takes another step in the right direction under Jordan Love.
You need to look no further than the fantasy success we saw from Aaron Jones throughout his career with the Packers to see Jacobs’ potential ceiling in this offense.
Jones’ Fantasy Production by Year:
- 2023: RB37 (missed six games due to injury)
- 2022: RB9
- 2021: RB10
- 2020: RB5
- 2019: RB2
Keep in mind that Jones never saw more than 236 carries in any season with Green Bay. His involvement in the passing game — catching an average of 51 passes per season from 2019 to 2022 — and per-touch efficiency led to great fantasy production despite consistently losing work to other backs, namely AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams.
Jacobs has the track record of a proven workhorse ball carrier who had efficient seasons with a much higher quantity of work during his time with the Raiders.
Personally, I’m not scared of Dillon or rookie MarShawn Lloyd stealing too much work from Jacobs. Assuming his efficiency woes from last year don’t follow him to Green Bay, Jacobs is well-positioned to produce a fringe RB1 season in 2024.
Jacobs’ average draft position (ADP) sits at No. 30 overall, going off the board in the third round as the RB12. Similarly to Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, Jacobs’ change of scenery comes with more pros than cons. Being the leading ball carrier of a far more productive offense could lead to great fantasy success.
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Unlike the other two backs just mentioned, Jacobs isn’t contending with his quarterback for rushing looks in the red zone — which should give his fantasy ceiling a nice bump in value.
If Jacobs has another 2022-type season left in the tank, then he is a great buy on draft day at his current price.
