The New England Patriots-Brandon Aiyuk rumors are back. New England reportedly explored an Aiyuk trade during the 2024 NFL Draft and reached out to the San Francisco 49ers again within the last month. Since then, Aiyuk, who wants a new contract, has formally requested a trade.
The rebuilding Patriots are on everyone’s list of potential Aiyuk destinations, including ours. But is New England even in a position to land the star receiver, or would it be putting the cart ahead of the horse?
Let’s look into cases for and against the Patriots pursuing an Aiyuk trade.
Cases Against Patriots Pursuing Brandon Aiyuk Trade
First of all, there might not be an Aiyuk trade of any kind. From Adam Schefter to Ian Rapoport, the prevailing sentiment from NFL insiders is that the 49ers don’t plan on trading him or giving him a lucrative contract extension.
The 49ers relayed that exact message to the Patriots after they recently called about an Aiyuk trade, according to league insider Josina Anderson.
I’m told within the last couple of weeks the #Patriots reached out to the #49ers inquiring about WR Brandon Aiyuk again and were told the talented wide receiver was not being traded at the time, per source. pic.twitter.com/QhSmCBm7fW
— JosinaAnderson (@JosinaAnderson) July 16, 2024
But let’s proceed as if an Aiyuk trade is on the table.
I believe the Patriots should make a run at Aiyuk, and I’ll present the case in a bit. But you certainly could argue against the move even though it undoubtedly would make the Patriots a better team.
It’s not just about the trade compensation. The Patriots also will need to give Aiyuk the extension he wants, a potential mega-deal in the range of four years, $120 million. That’s a lot of money for a team that has other holes on the roster and likely won’t contend for a Super Bowl for at least another few years.
Furthermore, Aiyuk would arrive at Gillette Stadium as the highest-paid player in Patriots history despite never playing a game for the franchise. The potential ramifications in the locker room must be considered, as well as how Aiyuk would conduct himself after being emboldened by a massive contract.
The trade compensation also matters, however. The Patriots are in the middle of a rebuild and probably shouldn’t be in the business of trading away desirable draft picks. I floated three potential trade packages earlier this week, and they all include at least two draft picks, although zero first-rounders were involved.
Aiyuk probably is worth a package that includes a second-rounder and a Day 2 pick, but should the Patriots make that kind of offer? It’s a tough one.
All that said, it depends on the package. The Boston Herald’s Andrew Callahan recently suggested the Patriots should trade their 2025 first-round pick for Aiyuk and San Fran’s 2025 first-rounder. That’s a fun trade, one that makes more sense the more you think about it.
Finally, next year’s free agency must be a part of the conversation. If Aiyuk isn’t traded or extended, he’ll hit the open market next March — and Tee Higgins might join him. The Patriots arguably would be better off signing either in free agency before using their draft picks to address other needs, particularly those on the offensive line.
It’s an interesting debate. However, I still believe the Patriots should aggressively pursue an Aiyuk trade.
Cases for Patriots Pursuing Brandon Aiyuk Trade
They Could Be Better Than You Think
If you read my season win-loss predictions piece, you know I’m higher on the Patriots than most. I don’t think they’ll be great, but I think a combination of a better-than-advertised roster, regression from AFC rivals, and a little luck could lead to exceeded expectations. My prediction of a 9-8 record might not age well, but I believe the Patriots will be decent.
And I’m not the only one who feels that way.
Aaron Schatz, creator of the DVOA statistic and one of the more respected voices in football analytics, believes the Patriots will go 7-10.
Vegas oddsmakers project the #Patriots will win 4-5 games. But are they wrong?@ASchatzNFL explains why the Pats most likely go 7-10 (!!!) in 2024.
Listen, watch, SUBSCRIBE to @PatsInterferenc:
🍎https://t.co/FHZV4XgriM
📺https://t.co/vVO2Qaxvt5
🎧 https://t.co/rS7JCmqB9E pic.twitter.com/wKXb5jorAK— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) July 16, 2024
The Patriots’ defense should be among the best in football despite the departures of Bill Belichick and his son, Steve, who called plays in recent seasons. The defense should give New England at least the floor of last season’s team, which won four games and was generally competitive despite receiving horrendous quarterback play.
Speaking of quarterback, we don’t know whether rookie Drake Maye will play. But if the starter is Jacoby Brissett, we know what to expect: a professional, veteran leader who can take care of the ball and play winning football.
If Brissett does his job and the defense meets expectations, the Patriots should be better than the 2023 team — an admittedly low bar.
That leaves receiver, coaching, and left tackle as the primary variables.
We’ll see what happens at left tackle, but it’s a legitimate area of concern. And though Mayo will be a downgrade from Belichick, it’s hard to imagine the positional coaching not being an improvement upon what we saw the previous two seasons — another very low bar.
MORE: New England Patriots Depth Chart
But receiver? The Patriots can solve that issue by acquiring Aiyuk, who’s one of the best in football and is coming off a 1,300-yard season. He’d completely transform the offense while changing the narrative surrounding the Patriots overnight.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers could win 10 games with last season’s team, there’s no reason why these Patriots couldn’t do the same with Aiyuk in the fold.
Drake Maye’s Development
This might be the No. 1 reason to acquire Aiyuk.
The Patriots can’t undermine Maye the way they did with Mac Jones. They must surround him with top talent and give him the best opportunity to prove whether he’s a franchise quarterback.
Even if Maye sits half the season or redshirts the entire campaign, he still would be able to practice with Aiyuk, which would be important. And if he somehow claims the starting job sooner than expected, he’d benefit from playing with an elite receiver right away. No messing around with the Nelson Agholors and DeVante Parkers of the world.
Great quarterbacks are capable of elevating flawed receivers, and in today’s NFL, great receivers are capable of doing the same for flawed quarterbacks. Maye has a lot of work to do, but playing with someone like Aiyuk could accelerate his development while giving him more margin for error. Think Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen.
We’ll find out this season whether the Patriots already have ascending receivers who can help Maye. But if they land Aiyuk, there won’t need to be any more guessing.
Domino Effect in Receiver Room
The Patriots’ receiver room has a higher ceiling than many believe, but the floor is low.
Their top five receivers are DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. A handful of other players, including JuJu Smith-Schuster, will battle for the final spots in camp.
It’s a talented group, but there are questions everywhere you look.
Douglas is a dynamic talent who could be the Patriots’ discount version of Tyreek Hill, but he’s a 5’8″ slot receiver who suffered multiple concussions last season.
READ MORE: NFL WR Rankings 2024
Bourne is a difference-maker when he’s locked in and healthy, but he’s coming off a torn ACL and endured multiple stays in Belichick’s doghouse the last three seasons. He might start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.
Osborn is an intriguing deep threat but struggled with drops during the spring and, at best, is a No. 3 option.
Polk, a second-rounder, was a standout during the spring when he looked like a souped-up version of Jakobi Meyers. But he’s more of a possession receiver who’ll make his living in the middle of the field rather than a boundary weapon.
Baker, a fourth-rounder, has big-play potential but battled injuries during the spring and is a wild card off the field. I have no idea what to expect from him during training camp.
That brings us back to Aiyuk, who’s exactly what this group needs. He’d give the Patriots an elite weapon on the outside while enabling everyone else to slot into their ideal roles.
Douglas could focus on being a shifty playmaker and chain-mover. The pressure would come off Polk, who could focus on just playing his game and getting better each week. Osborn could slot in as the No. 4/No. 3, which is where he belongs. The Patriots could manage expectations for both Bourne and Baker.
Am I giving too much credit to one receiver and overestimating his ability to singlehandedly improve a rebuilding team? Probably. But these are different times in the NFL, and these aren’t the Tom Brady-era Patriots.
Receivers are that important in today’s NFL, and the Patriots need one that badly.
