Managers need to be price-sensitive at all points during the draft, but certain roster spots require even more precision. Due to the depth at the position, fantasy football WR busts are something you need to nail – the opportunity cost can be off the charts given the players selected in a similar range.
These receivers deserve a second, and maybe third, look before adding them to your team at their current price tag.
Fantasy Football Busts: Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: WR14)
Brandon Aiyuk may not be happy with the San Francisco 49ers, but Adam Schefter has reported that the team does not intend to move him and as long as that is the case, my fading of Samuel remains intact.
My concern isn’t talent. Samuel is a uniquely gifted weapon that gives this offense a dimension few have. However, his being dangerous to defenses and consistent for fantasy managers aren’t the same thing.
We know the value of his rushing attempts can be sporadic and there’s no reason to think that changes in his age-28 season. In 2021, he averaged 1.43 points per rushing attempt, a rate that sits at 1.14 (down 20.3%) since.
When it comes to the receiver version of his profile, there is no denying that Brock Purdy has eyes for Aiyuk over him. Despite an aDOT that is 95.8% higher than that of Samuel, Aiyuk has a higher catch rate (69.9% to 66.4%) from the 49ers starting quarterback.
You’re passing on all the elite quarterbacks/tight ends, one of the favorites to lead the league in touchdowns (Derrick Henry), and target monsters (Michael Pittman Jr. and Aiyuk) to acquire Samuel this season.
I’ll pass.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: WR17)
Last season was great, there are just no two ways about that (79-1,255-13), but have we overcorrected for a collective miss?
How much different is his situation this season than last? Sure, he has a year of reps with Baker Mayfield, but he’s a year older and the orchestrator of what made this offense reasonably potent last year is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers.
Dave Canales sprinkled pixie dust on Geno Smith in 2022 and did the same to Mayfield in 2023. Now he’s out of town — why is Evans’ ADP 53 picks higher than 12 months ago? We, as an industry, probably underestimate his raw talent to some degree, but 4+ rounds?
Mayfield punched above his weight last season (career highs in passing yards and touchdowns), but even in a good season, he was spotty when throwing to the end zone. He ranked below league average in touchdown rate, passer rating, and completion percentage when inside the 20-yard line – and yet, Evans thrived.
Last 15 Seasons: Most Red Zone PPG, Season 10 Or Later
- 2023 Evans: 5.34 PPG
- 2015 Brandon Marshall: 4.79 PPG
- 2009 Randy Moss: 4.17 PPG
Evans’ rate from last season is 11.5% ahead of the field and those are the only three to average even 3.5 PPG over that stretch. What Evans accomplished in 2023 was amazing if you had him, but I think you’re making a mistake in chasing it in Round 3 this season.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants (ADP: WR24)
Daniel Jones is entering his sixth NFL season and just twice has a receiver averaged 9.0 PPR points during his tenure. Now, I’m willing to admit that Nabers has as much talent as any New York Giants receiver in recent memory, but that 9.0 PPG number is an awfully low bar (Josh Downs was WR51 last season and averaged 9.2 points).
The best WR season that has come under the watch of Jones was Sterling Shepard in 2020, a season in which he averaged 13.5 PPG, a number that would have been good for WR27 in 2023.
READ MORE: Potential RB Busts to Avoid in Fantasy Football in 2024
I’ll listen to the idea that Nabers is a threat at every level, but are we positive that Jones can pay off a receiver at any level? He owns a bottom-10 passer rating on short passes (under 10 air yards) since entering the league and that strong Shepard season came in a year in which he saw only 19 deep targets.
The versatility of Nabers is enticing long-term, I’m just not sure he is currently in an environment that will support him in a way that justifies drafting him over Amari Cooper, George Pickens, or Tee Higgins.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: WR51)
In full disclosure, expectations aren’t high within the industry as his current ADP is hovering at the end of Round 10 – I’m still not interested.
As fantasy managers, we have to value what teams tell us with their actions. Slot usage is often a nice floor elevator for us and Seattle is trending away from counting on their veteran in that regard.
- 2023: 29.1% of targets in the slot
- 2019-22: 51.5% in the slot
In 2023, Lockett’s per-target production fell off a cliff, and it’s difficult to see that reversing course given the offensive environment in Seattle.
- 2018-22: 1.87 half-PPR points per target
- 2023: 1.34 half-PPR points per target (28.3% decline)
Even if you have more confidence in Geno Smith and this offense in the post-Pete Carroll era, are we sure that Lockett is the beneficiary?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is poised to break out IF he gets more volume!👀
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was #17 in Route Win Rate (52.7%) & #13 in YAC/Rec among WRs & TEs w/ 50+ catches🔥
But…he only drew 5.5 targets per game & 569 Air Yards (#82) for 8.8 PPG (#56)😬
Are you in on JSN?📢 pic.twitter.com/LcO0o5hJWK
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 19, 2024
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Production Compared to Expectation
- Weeks 1-4: -45.9% (56th of 56 WRs that had at least as many targets as him over that stretch)
- Week 5 bye
- Weeks 6-18: +7.6% (11th of 33 WRs that had at least as many targets as him over that stretch
In reality, there is no such thing as a real “bad” pick at the point in the draft in which Lockett is going. But why not aim for a higher ceiling? I’m rolling the dice on Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Rashid Shaheed, and Mike Williams, to name a few in this ADP range, and feeling good about it.
