Given all the injuries, it’s not surprising the Baltimore Ravens opted not to extend J.K. Dobbins after the expiration of his rookie contract. He now hopes to prove he can stay healthy and produce while on the Los Angeles Chargers. In what will certainly be a committee backfield, what does Dobbins’ projection say about his fantasy football prospects this season?
J.K. Dobbins’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 7.8
- Rushing Yards: 527
- Rush TDs: 7.6
- Receptions: 17
- Receiving Yards: 123
- Receiving TDs: 0.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Dobbins This Year?
Somehow, this will be Dobbins’ fifth year in the NFL. After averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie, fantasy managers were expecting him to take off in his sophomore season. A preseason ACL tear, however, stopped that train before it could ever leave the station. Complications from the injury cost Dobbins half of the 2022 season as well.
Finally, in 2023, after what were essentially two lost seasons, Dobbins was set to be the Ravens’ lead back. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles in the very first game.
Dobbins now enters his fifth season having played a grand total of nine games in the past three years. Evaluating his talent is nearly impossible at this point. The only time when Dobbins was truly fully healthy was in his rookie year. We know that guy had the potential to be one of the better running backs in fantasy, but four years later, we have no idea if that guy exists anymore. Between the knee and Achilles injuries, it seems highly unlikely.
Dobbins followed Ravens teammate Gus Edwards to the Chargers. Edwards will open the season as the lead back, but he’s a two-down grinder. Someone else will play on passing downs. It’s possible it could be rookie Kimani Vidal, but it could also be Dobbins.
Of course, a pure passing-down role isn’t going to be enough to make Dobbins fantasy relevant. However, if he’s healthy and regains his pre-injury form, Dobbins is a better player than Edwards. It’s possible he could earn more work on the ground.
With all that said, fantasy managers have to take a position. Mine is the injuries have ruined Dobbins’ explosiveness, and I don’t think he’ll ever be the guy he was as a rookie.
I did project Dobbins to be the RB2 behind Edwards. I have him running for 707 yards, and two touchdowns, while adding 34 receptions for 271 yards and another score through the air. However, that only gets him to 8.78 fantasy ppg.
Regardless, no one is drafting Dobbins for his projection. The hope would be that on a backfield with no one that truly commands volume, he can emerge. It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
I have Dobbins ranked as my RB47, which is a bit lower than his RB42 ADP. Dobbins’ ADP climbed up significantly with positive training camp reports. I was fine throwing a dart in the last round or two. But at that price, but there are other running backs going around him with injury-contingent upside as well. Those guys aren’t coming off two devastating knee and foot injuries.
I won’t be drafting Dobbins anywhere this season.
