Of the two conferences, the AFC might be the most enticing in 2024. It very much feels like seven teams could all be in contention if things fall their way when the NFL playoffs roll around. The AFC also seems to have a very clear split of three tiers of teams, with a top seven, a middle five, and a bottom four, who will likely all be closer to No. 1 overall pick contention than Super Bowl contention.
Let’s examine the AFC Championship odds and which teams our NFL betting experts believe could represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
What Are the AFC Championship Odds for All 16 Teams?
- Kansas City Chiefs +300
- Baltimore Ravens +550
- Cincinnati Bengals +700
- Buffalo Bills +800
- Houston Texans +850
- New York Jets +1100
- Miami Dolphins +1100
- Cleveland Browns +2200
- Los Angeles Chargers +2200
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
- Pittsburgh Steelers +2800
- Indianapolis Colts +3500
- Las Vegas Raiders +6000
- Tennessee Titans +8000
- New England Patriots +10000
- Denver Broncos +15000
Top Picks To Win the AFC
Earlier this year, I bet the Houston Texans to win the AFC at +1600. That line is long gone. I still like them at +850, but it’s difficult to push that button when you know what the line used to be.
The Cincinnati Bengals are a team similar to the Texans. The primary difference is that we’ve already seen the Bengals make a Super Bowl. They were a popular pick to do it again last year, but injuries to Joe Burrow torpedoed their season.
Now, everyone is back healthy. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are together for what will likely be one final season. Joe Mixon may be gone, but this offense runs through the passing game.
Perhaps most importantly, Burrow is the only QB currently in the NFL with a postseason win over Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +700
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
We have six months to determine if great minds think alike or if Katz and I are just suckers for a good comeback story, but he’s onto something with his selection.
Since 2016:
- All 16 conference winners have allowed under 42% third-down conversion rate
- Fifteen of 16 have had a passer rating north of 97.5
- The average dropback percentage of conference champions was 59.6%
There isn’t an AFC team that checked all of those boxes last season, but there is one that was much closer than the rest and had a great excuse for not checking that middle box:
The Cincinnati Bengals.
Burrow missed seven games last season, and you could very much argue that he was at less than full strength for the contests he did start. Their overall roster strength is highlighted in our latest NFL Power Rankings, and I’m in agreement.
What do the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Texans, Bengals, and Kansas City Chiefs all have in common? They all have explosive offenses, and they were among the top five defenses in quarterback contact rate. Due to the strength of the division, this team will be battle-tested, and because of that depth, they get a last-place schedule in 2024.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +700
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
The pitfalls of going last is that the team I wanted to pick has already been taken by both our guys.
I, too, like the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, primarily because they are the only team that has proven they can beat the Chiefs in the postseason outside of the long-forgotten New England Patriots. Burrow has that one major win on his résumé that is unmatched by anyone in the AFC.
However, since my colleagues have both taken the Bengals, I’ll switch it up, but just a little. I am here to say that the winner of the AFC North will go to the Super Bowl, which will be either the Bengals or the Baltimore Ravens, but I would not count out the Cleveland Browns either.
Fully healthy, the Browns are a 10-win team that can battle, as we saw them get into the playoffs last season. And the Ravens have the current MVP behind center and one of the best coaches in the game. They call it a black-and-blue division for a reason. The winner will be battle-tested and have a shot at the Chiefs’ crown. But who are we kidding? You know it’ll be Chiefs again.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +700
– David Bearman, PFN Chief Content Officer