The Defensive Rookie of the Year award has been extremely open in recent seasons. In the last three years alone, we’ve seen a defensive end (Will Anderson Jr.), a linebacker (Micah Parsons), and a cornerback (Sauce Gardner) win the award. If we go back 10 years, the count is four defensive ends, three cornerbacks, two linebackers, and a defensive tackle.
Looking back throughout history, the award was historically dominated by the linebacker position, with defensive linemen, pass rushers, and cornerbacks getting more of a foothold recently. The only position without a history of winning the award is safety, with the last winner at the position being Mark Carrier in 1990.
With that in mind, let’s turn our focus to this year’s defensive class. It’s a tough one to decipher without many clear-cut starting options as things stand in early August.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award?
The odds below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 4, 2024. Any player not listed has odds longer than +5000.
- Dallas Turner +350
- Laiatu Latu +550
- Byron Murphy II +1000
- Jared Verse +1100
- Terrion Arnold +1200
- Quinyon Mitchell +1200
- Chop Robinson +1400
- Cooper DeJean +2500
- Nate Wiggins +2500
- Payton Wilson +3000
- Darius Robinson +3500
- Kool-Aid McKinstry +3500
- Jer’Zhan Newton +3500
- Edgerrin Cooper +3500
- Junior Colson +4000
- Mike Sainristil +4000
- Chris Braswell +5000
- Tyler Nubin +5000
- Maason Smith +5000
- Bralen Trice +5000
- Braden Fiske +5000
- Javon Bullard +5000
- Austin Booker +5000
- Adisa Issac +5000
- Marshawn Kneeland +5000
Top Picks To Win Defensive Rookie of the Year
With a lack of certainty at other positions on the defensive side of the ball, we could see the Defensive Rookie of the Year award hark back to the days of Patrick Willis, Jerod Mayo, and DeMeco Ryans, where an interior LB took the award through sheer domination of play time and opportunities in the heart of the defense.
If that logic plays out, then Junior Colson of the Los Angeles Chargers immediately stands out to me. The former Michigan LB was drafted by his former coach Jim Harbaugh, and very well could be wearing the green dot as the leader of the defense when the season opens.
Colson has three-down capabilities, which means we could see him in the 100-tackle region when all is said and done. If the defensive ends cannot post gaudy sack numbers, Colson could win the award as a reward for consistency and volume. A small flutter at +4000 is well worth that gamble on a relatively weak defensive class in 2024.
Pick: Junior Colson +4000
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Whereas Offensive Rookie of the Year has a clear favorite, this is a great year for Defensive Rookie of the Year betting. With the favorite’s odds set at +350, you know it’s a pretty open race.
I really believe there are 8-10 guys who can win this award. Chop Robinson has the best combination of likelihood to win plus odds.
The 21-year-old first-round selection of the Miami Dolphins is going to start right away. He’s a freak athlete, having run a 4.48-second 40-yard dash at the Combine with a 1.53-second 10-yard split, placing him in the 99th percentile among defensive ends.
In college, Robinson was an incredibly effective pass rusher, despite not logging as many sacks as you’d expect. For him to win this award, he’ll need to turn those QB hurries and hits into sacks. If he does, Robinson has the potential to have one of the best rookie years from an EDGE player in recent history. I love his odds.
Pick: Chop Robinson +1400
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
We are keenly aware of team success impacting offensive awards, but don’t sleep on the importance in the defensive markets.
Will Anderson Jr. was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, snapping a streak of four straight winners that had come from a top-five unit in terms of EPA (Expected Points Added).
I’m okay with labeling Anderson as an outlier. In a fluid market like this, I want to invest in a player in a good position to make plays in a strong defensive environment. Every player priced ahead of Nate Wiggins in the betting markets ranked in the bottom half of the league in EPA last season (it makes sense, these are the teams that need help).
There is plenty of talent on Baltimore’s defense, but Wiggins (30th overall pick) should be on the field with regularity and be in the middle of the action. The Ravens are going to score, which creates a need for their opponents to be overly aggressive. That setting alone is advantageous, and when you consider Marlon Humphrey’s presence, there are multiple paths to Wiggins making splash plays.
Humphrey has missed 5+ games in two of the past three seasons, and if he remains fragile, Wiggins’ responsibilities could spike and thus put him in the limelight. If Humphrey is able to stay on the field, opposing QBs are likely to throw the other way, and that means several chances for Wiggins.
Maybe he’s not ready. Maybe the game will be too fast. But at the very least, we’re getting an athletic prospect who will have opportunities to impact an already strong defense, a profile that is worth a sprinkle at his price.
Pick: Nate Wiggins +2500
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst