In recent years, three players have dominated the NFL MVP award, with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers sharing it evenly. The last 11 MVP awards have been won by the quarterback position, with only one non-QB winning the award in the last 18 seasons.
Can Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill — who both got voting points last year — end that streak, or will the domination continue?
With training camp now underway and the NFL season drawing ever closer, we examine the MVP odds, and our betting analysts give their early picks for the award this season.
Who Are the Favorites To Win the NFL MVP Award?
The odds listed below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 1. Anyone not listed has odds greater than +5000.
- Patrick Mahomes +475
- C.J. Stroud +850
- Josh Allen +900
- Joe Burrow +900
- Jordan Love +1400
- Jalen Hurts +1500
- Lamar Jackson +1500
- Aaron Rodgers +1600
- Brock Purdy +1600
- Dak Prescott +1700
- Jared Goff +2000
- Justin Herbert +2200
- Tua Tagovailoa +2500
- Anthony Richardson +3000
- Trevor Lawrence +3000
- Matthew Stafford +3000
- Kirk Cousins +3500
- Christian McCaffrey +4000
- Kyler Murray +5000
- Caleb Williams +5000
Top Picks To Win NFL MVP
Lamar Jackson (+1500)
There is nothing original or exciting about taking the MVP “defending champion” who got 49 of 50 first-place votes last year. When Jackson is at his best, his game is irresistible. I had doubts about his ability to transition from a seeming run-first quarterback to a more well-rounded player early in his career, but those have well and truly gone.
We’ve seen Jackson prove over and over that despite not having household receiving names around him, he can still put up good passing numbers, while also being a major threat with his legs. When you consider that Jackson won MVP last year without Mark Andrews for long stretches and a rookie WR in Zay Flowers as his main weapon, it becomes even more impressive.
The biggest reason I hold a Jackson ticket in 2024 is the value of +1500. It doesn’t make sense to me that he’s below six other players in terms of his odds and has significantly longer odds than Mahomes.
I will likely also end up with a ticket on Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow at some point this season, as I believe that is the group the award is most likely to be contested between, but I’ll wait for better value to materialize on the other three.
If Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens go into Kansas City on opening night and win, we may not see Jackson’s odds above +1000 again during the season. Bank the value now and ride out the excitement that is watching Jackson week in and week out.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Anthony Richardson (+3000)
I will preface this by saying I think Mahomes will win MVP this year. However, betting on an MVP at +475 is not exactly exciting. So, let me give you one that is exciting.
Who saw Jackson’s 2019 MVP season coming? Virtually, no one. Just like no one thinks Richardson could be MVP this season. The parallels are striking, though.
We got a glimpse of Richardson in his rookie season, much like we got only about half a season of Jackson. Neither was fully formed in Year 1. However, Richardson showed flashes of truly elite upside.
He’s already one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Richardson displayed that ability in his four games last season. Combined with what we saw from him in college, we can accept this as true. The issue is whether he’s there as a passer.
There’s plenty of reason for skepticism, but we’re talking about +3000 odds here for a reason. Is it that crazy for Richardson to have a 2019 Jackson-esque season? If he can be 90% of that, he’ll win MVP.
Of course, it’s not likely. But for the odds, I’ll throw down a free bet or two.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Jared Goff (+2000)
It’s only a matter of time before we change the labeling of this award to the MVQB — 16 of the past 17 winners have been signal-callers, including a current run of 11 straight.
Taking snaps is the first unofficial qualifier for this honor, and not far behind is team success. Only once since 2003 has the MVP gone to a quarterback leading a team that lost more than four games during the regular season.
In that vein, I labeled my betting pool as the quarterbacks on the top 10 teams in terms of implied win totals. The QBs who have hoisted the trophy have been heavily relied upon, rarely sharing a backfield with a heavily involved traditional back. In fact, over the past decade, the lead running back playing alongside the MVP averaged 949.2 rushing yards for the season.
It’s time to start eliminating names. Purdy, Hurts, Jackson, and Rodgers all checked the implied wins box, but all have a star RB whose rushing yardage total is posted at or above 975.
With six names remaining on my list, I elected to look at how these quarterbacks have produced their video game numbers.
MVP winners
- 2014-19: 9.0 average depth of target
- 2020-23: 7.8 average depth of target
This trend helps me eliminate four more names. We need volume statistics, and these short passes have proven to be the best way to obtain them.
Gone is Stroud (aDOT rose by 21% in the second half of his season, and Year 2 QBs have posted a higher aDOT than Year 1 QBs over the past decade). The award’s favorite, Mahomes, has a downward-trending aDOT, but the construction of this roster hints that we could see that change in 2024.
The general perception of the Buffalo Bills after Joe Brady took over was one of conservative nature, but Allen’s aDOT actually rose by 8.3% after the change at coordinator (not to mention that James Cook averaged 16.7 carries per game over that stretch and is someone I’d bet to clear that threshold of 950 rushing yards from earlier).
Prescott saw his aDOT increase last season and posted the highest deep completion percentage of his career. With the Cowboys allowing pressure at the fifth-lowest rate, the time to throw those passes makes him a good bet to produce similar numbers this season.
That’s right. This is a Burrow vs. Goff situation for me. I think Burrow is the greater talent, but his profile certainly has more health risks. Beyond that, 35.3% of NFL games are played within one’s division.
AFC North Defensive EPA Ranks
- Browns: 1st
- Ravens: 3rd
- Steelers: 7th
NFC North Defensive EPA Ranks
- Bears: 14th
- Vikings: 20th
- Packers: 23rd
AFC North opponents allowed 66.3% of yards to come through the air compared to 68.4% by the NFC North. This isn’t directly a fantasy football-based award, though eye-popping statistics certainly help. And with divisional games backloaded, Goff could separate himself down the stretch, much like Jackson did last season.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Tua Tagovailoa (+2500)
Soppe stole my thunder on Goff, but that’s probably for the better, as I have already taken the Lions to win the Super Bowl and the conference and go over 10.5 wins.
Correlation is cool when it works. I do have a Goff ticket at +2000 because I think they will have the NFC’s top seed, and if he’s a big reason why, he’ll be a finalist.
But expanding the portfolio, I’m going to roll with Tua Tagovailoa at +2500. Yeah, call me a homer, but seriously, Tua led the NFL in passing yards and was top five in rating and touchdowns.
The Dolphins were in control of their destiny for the No. 1 seed last year before the late-season collapse and returned everyone on offense. The defense will look different, but when healthy, they were a top-16 unit.
The biggest obstacles for Miami have been the late-season swoons and the Bills. In my opinion, Buffalo will take a step back, and the Dolphins will be battling the Jets for the AFC East. If Miami wins it, is a top-three seed, and Tua leads the league in passing yards, he’ll be right there at +2500.
– David Bearman, PFN Chief Content Office