NFL head coaching changes are inevitable. Over the past five offseasons, an average of seven teams per year have parted ways with their head coach and started fresh. Next year doesn’t figure to be any different, and several coaches will begin the 2024 campaign on the hot — or at least, warm — seat.
Let’s run through seven teams that could conceivably hire a new head coach in 2025.
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7) Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
It’s almost easy to forget how lackluster the Buffalo Bills were before Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane came to town in 2017. Buffalo wasn’t necessarily a laughingstock, but they were largely irrelevant.
When the Bills made the playoffs after the 2017 campaign, they snapped an 18-year postseason drought. From 2000 to 2016, Buffalo never won more than nine games in a single season and finished better than third in their division just twice.
The Bills have morphed into a powerhouse since, winning more regular-season games over those seven years than any NFL team except the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints.
Still, McDermott, Josh Allen, and Co. haven’t reached the mountaintop. Buffalo advanced to the AFC Championship Game after the 2020 campaign, but that’s the farthest it’s gone in the playoffs. If the Bills wash out in the Divisional Round again in 2024, will McDermott face questions? Or will his recent extension through 2027 save him?
6) Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson’s first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars was a true cleanse after the Urban Meyer disaster. Trevor Lawrence improved in his second NFL campaign, while the Jags won the AFC South before orchestrating one of the league’s largest playoff comebacks in a Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
But everything came crashing down last season. Lawrence battled numerous injuries, and Jacksonville lost five of its final six games to give away the division crown.
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How different will things be in 2024? Ryan Nielsen replaces Mike Caldwell as defensive coordinator. However, it’s still unclear whether Pederson will reclaim offensive play-calling duties from OC Press Taylor, who guided the Jaguars’ offense last season.
With the division-rival Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans all on the rise, Jacksonville could face a tough time getting back in the mix.
5) Brian Daboll, New York Giants
The New York Giants doubled down on their 2022 success, re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year extension while using the franchise tag to retain running back Saquon Barkley. But Big Blue’s plan didn’t work: Jones struggled behind a woeful offense line before tearing his ACL, while Barkley was unproductive before signing with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason.
Adding WR Malik Nabers and OL upgrades should help New York’s offense, but Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen tried to find another quarterback this offseason. If Jones struggles again in 2024, the Giants might be forced to bench him to prevent his 2025 injury guarantees from kicking in.
In that scenario, New York’s ownership could be willing to clean house, fire Daboll and Schoen, and start over with a new signal-caller. Daboll’s reported explosive personality –which caused friction and eventually led to ex-DC Wink Martindale’s resignation — could also be a problem.
4) Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
No one would have been surprised if the Chicago Bears parted ways with Matt Eberflus after the 2023 campaign. It’s not as if the Bears didn’t improve the stretch, especially on defense. But with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams in place as the club’s quarterback savior, Chicago could have fired Eberflus and hired an offensive-minded head coach — and no one would’ve batted an eye.
Instead, GM Ryan Poles opted to stick with Eberflus for a third season after the Bears’ augmented defense helped them win four of their last six games. While Chicago might not have to make the playoffs for Eberflus to keep his job, a winning record might be the baseline.
Eberflus will be forced into the spotlight more in 2024 than ever before in his NFL career. Not only are the Bears expected to compete, but they’ll be featured on the training camp edition of HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” giving Eberflus plenty of time on screen.
3) Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Another head coach who shockingly held onto his title after missing the playoffs in 2023, Dennis Allen is on his last leg with the New Orleans Saints. Allen, who went 8-28 as the Oakland Raiders’ HC from 2012 to 2014, is an excellent defensive coordinator. However, he seemed to be the Saints’ Sean Payton replacement by default, and the results have been underwhelming.
Allen has posted a 16-18 record through two years with New Orleans, failing to earn a playoff berth in either campaign. It’s difficult to see how the Saints will improve in 2024. Derek Carr offers limited upside under center, while salary-cap constraints prevented the team from making many free agent upgrades.
The NFC South is a weak division, and New Orleans boasts the NFL’s third-easiest schedule. There’s a path for the Saints to make the postseason — if they don’t, Allen is almost certainly a goner.
2) Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones won’t fire himself, so there’s really only one other option if the Dallas Cowboys fail to live up to expectations in 2024. Dallas won 12 games in each of the last three seasons under Mike McCarthy but haven’t advanced past the Wild Card Round.
Although Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons are eligible for new deals, Jones and the club’s front office haven’t been able to work out extensions. Prescott’s massive cap charge limited the Cowboys’ free agent spending.
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Dallas is still expected to compete for a playoff spot in the NFC. Still, it’s hard to imagine the club being as productive after losing offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz, running back Tony Pollard, defensive linemen Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, and potentially cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
McCarthy is entering the final year of his contract but won’t receive a new deal, signaling how critical the 2024 season will be for his job security. With big coaching fish like Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel on the market next offseason, McCarthy needs at least a playoff win — and maybe more — to stick in Dallas.
1) Robert Saleh, New York Jets
The New York Jets own the NFL’s longest active playoff drought, having failed to make the postseason since 2010. If Gang Green can’t end the pain in 2024, Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas will almost surely lose their jobs.
On paper, the Jets should be an excellent team, especially if Aaron Rodgers can revert to his pre-Achilles form. New York surrounded WR1 Garrett Wilson with veteran Mike Williams and Malachi Corley, augmented its OL with Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson, and will bring back most of a defense that could be the best unit in the league.
However, the Jets still have plenty of question marks. Can Rodgers still thrive at age 40? Is OC Nathaniel Hackett a capable play-caller? Despite its high-end talent, is New York’s defense too fragile?
Watching the Jets, Bills, and Miami Dolphins fight for the AFC East title should be one of the most compelling aspects of the 2024 NFL season. But if New York’s campaign doesn’t end with a playoff berth, Saleh will be gone.