Over the second half of last season, Khalil Shakir had more receiving yards than Stefon Diggs. And with Diggs gone, the Buffalo Bills now have a wide-open WR depth chart. There’s a chance for anyone, including Shakir, to step up.
What does Shakir’s projection tell us about his chances of being the guy fantasy football managers want?
Khalil Shakir’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.4
- Receptions: 53
- Receiving Yards: 844
- Receiving TDs: 3.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Shakir This Year?
When you look at Shakir’s 2023 season on the surface, nothing stands out. He averaged 7.1 fantasy points per game, which is not even close to fantasy-relevant. With an 8.9% target share and 14.2% yards per route run rate, he wasn’t heavily featured or a preferred option for Josh Allen.
The main issue with Shakir’s sophomore season was the lack of volume. When he did get the ball, he made some impressive plays.
Shakir’s 13.6 yards per target led the NFL. For a guy who spent 61% of his time in the slot, he made a surprisingly large number of downfield plays.
As a reminder, Shakir only caught 39 passes all of last season. Yet, a staggering 10 of them went for 20+ yards. That’s the sort of per-play upside we love to see in late-round hopefuls.
It’s clear Shakir has some talent. The question is whether he can earn more opportunities this season.
Buffalo’s top three receivers project to be veteran Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, and Shakir. The current favorite to lead the team in targets is TE Dalton Kincaid, who I have projected for a team-high 22.1% target share.
When projecting the Bills wide receivers, there’s not much more to the process than predicting who I think will be the main guy, if anyone.
I wound up going with relatively similar target share projections for all three of Buffalo’s top receivers. Coleman leads the way at 17.3%, but Curtis Samuel is not far behind at 16.6%. I have Shakir third at 13%.
These numbers could fluctuate, but at my current projections, Shakir is catching 39 passes for 547 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. That comes out to 6.99 fantasy points per game, putting him at WR72.
I’m not confident in him emerging into an impact fantasy asset, or even one that’s worth throwing on your bench. A big part of that is there doesn’t project to be enough passing volume to go around.
From Week 11 through the end of last season, the Bills ranked dead last in neutral game script pass rate. What happened before then? Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator.
I have the Bills projected for a 52% pass rate, which may end up being a bit high. Shakir’s WR52 ADP is not particularly high, but I just don’t see the upside here. I have him ranked as my WR54, which isn’t a huge difference this late in drafts.
Nevertheless, it would be surprising if Shakir emerged into an every-week startable WR3/Flex play. As a result, I am taking shots on other players with more upside.
