Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton was a second-round pick in 2018 and he is being drafted as the fourth receiver from that class in fantasy football this season (DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, and Christian Kirk). He easily reached a career-high with 10 touchdowns last season, but 2024 carries a handful of new challenges, which has him landing outside of the top 100 picks more often than not.
Is it time to buy?
Courtland Sutton’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 198 (127 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 71
- Receiving Yards: 929
- Receiving TDs: 6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Sutton This Year?
We know what this situation is. We know that Sutton, before last season, was largely an underwhelming fantasy asset; and we know that he is going to be working with an unproven, if not a rookie, quarterback this season.
Courtland Sutton đź‘Ź pic.twitter.com/GDPY7PSstf
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) November 14, 2023
Many situations are unclear, but the Sutton analysis appears to be straightforward – can you trust the WR1 in an offense with this many questions under center?
Let’s explore.
With a past-his-prime version of Russell Wilson in 2023, Sutton produced 20.9% over fantasy expectations, his first plus-season since 2019. His efficiency ranked 10th at the position among the 59 receivers with 75+ targets (ahead of stars you’ve heard of like Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown).
I’m a provider of information, so I’m going to lay out two arguments surrounding Sutton. Both are 100% true and both tell a very different story. It’s on you the manager to decide which angle you trust.
Over the past decade, when a receiver sees 75+ targets from a rookie QB, the average production compared to expectation is -7.2%. Not only is that a problem if you have your concerns about the value of targets in the first place, but it’s also a stat that is boosted by a pair of outlier quarterbacks (Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud accounted for four of the top six receiver seasons on that list).
READ MORE: Courtland Sutton’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More
Even if you trust Sean Payton to put Nix in a spot to succeed, no one is labeling him as a Prescott or Stroud, thus putting his receivers in a difficult spot.
But maybe that’s not the way you want to spin things. Maybe you’re an optimist by nature and choose to focus on what should be a very concentrated passing attack. I mean, Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds aren’t exactly target vacuums.
Here are the instances over the past decade in which a qualified receiver has been targeted on at least a quarter of his routes during a season with a rookie starting quarterback.
- 2023 Davante Adams: 31.4% (fantasy’s WR15)
- 2015 Mike Evans: 29.3% (fantasy’s WR24)
- 2020 Keenan Allen: 28.5% (fantasy’s WR7)
- 2023 DeAndre Hopkins: 27.5% (fantasy’s WR29)
- 2021 Brandin Cooks: 26.2% (fantasy’s WR19)
- 2023 Nico Collins: 26.2% (fantasy’s WR7)
Of course, there are a ton of moving pieces in the data set. From the talent of the rookie quarterback to the situation to the pedigree of the receiver, I’m willing to admit that this isn’t stable enough to copy/paste onto Sutton, but these six receivers had an average PPR PPG finish of WR17.
The jury rests.
Based on where he is being drafted, you have to choose if you’d rather rely on a heavy target share from a rookie QB or project the ability to earn targets as a rookie WR. Keon Coleman, Rome Odunze, and Xavier Worthy all share similar ADPs to Sutton – they all offer more excitement and potential, but will any of them outscore Denver’s six-year veteran?
If you drafted high-end WR talent and simply want upside on your bench, I’d pass on Sutton in favor of those shiny new toys. The odds of Nix being C.J. Stroud 2.0 aren’t high and with an already stable roster, it’s going to take a special season to crack your lineup.
That said, if you went with a onesie position early or elected to be contrarian with a running back-heavy build, the role safety that comes with Sutton becomes increasingly attractive. With him being picked in the ninth round, he doesn’t have to do much to return a minor profit. If the scoring skills that he showcased a season ago stick, his alpha target role could put him on the fringes of Flex consideration with regularity.
