The Tennessee Titans are set to undergo a major identity shift. In the post-Derrick Henry era, they’ve committed to adding pieces to the passing attack, most notably Calvin Ridley. What does Ridley’s fantasy football projection look like for the 2024 season?
Calvin Ridley’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 11.8
- Receptions: 77
- Receiving Yards: 837
- Receiving TDs: 6.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Ridley This Year?
If the Titans fail this year, it won’t be for lack of effort. Much like in fantasy, if the process is correct, but you get the players wrong, you shouldn’t feel bad.
Tennessee is trying to surround Will Levis with as many weapons as possible. Whether it works out will depend on the talent of everyone involved.
Once upon a time, Ridley was an elite talent. The Titans are hoping for the version of Ridley that caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. We’d all love to see that Ridley return. Unfortunately, that was four years ago, which is a long, long time in the NFL.
Since then, Ridley played five disappointing games in 2021 before leaving the Atlanta Falcons for the season. He then missed all of 2022 due to a gambling suspension. After returning with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023, the hype surrounding Ridley ballooned his ADP to the Round 2/3 turn.
In conclusion, Ridley averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR27 — a massive disappointment.
As the Jaguars’ clear WR1, Ridley only commanded a 22.6% target share. He was targeted on 21.4% of his routes run, 39th in the league.
Why couldn’t he earn more looks? Well, Ridley couldn’t get open. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, his 2.3 yards of separation on average was the 10th lowest in the NFL.
One of the best indicators of a receiver’s talent is his ability to beat man coverage. Ridley’s win rate against man was outside the top 50.
Now, to be fair, the Jaguars were quite uncreative with Ridley, lining him up outside 82% of the time. However, in his incredible 2020 season, Ridley was outside 92% of the time. This isn’t a player we’ve seen have success in the slot.
Head coach Brian Callahan did compare his plans for Ridley’s usage with how he used Ja’Marr Chase with the Cincinnati Bengals. While I respect Callahan’s boldness, Ridley is not Chase.
What Ridley needs are more “gimme” targets. His 13.2 aDOT (average depth of target) was 22nd in the league. The Jaguars kept trying to push the ball downfield to Ridley, never really giving him those easy layup targets.
Ridley averaged 1.6 yards per route run (48th in the league) and 7.5 yards per target (60th). His catch rate also fell to a career-low 55.9%.
To be fair, some of the blame can — and should — fall on Trevor Lawrence’s shoulders. Lawrence hasn’t necessarily played like the talent he was made out to be, but he’s a better quarterback than Levis. And even at 32 years old, DeAndre Hopkins is a far more formidable competition for targets than Christian Kirk.
Furthermore, Tennessee added Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard to the fold. While those two are unlikely to necessarily command targets at his expense, outside of Hopkins, they do provide significant upgrades on everything the Titans had last season in the pass-catching department.
One positive for Ridley is we should project the Titans for a massive increase in passing volume. I have them attempting about 90 more passes than they did last season.
The increase in volume, combined with a projected 21% target share for Ridley (who I have as the Titans’ clear WR2), gives him 66 receptions for 892 yards and 5.8 touchdowns. I have Ridley at 11.41 fantasy points per game, pretty much exactly in line with the PFN consensus projections. He projected out as my WR43.
I did rank Ridley a bit higher than that at WR32, as it would be unwise to completely dismiss the notion that I’m wrong about his talent. I am actually now above consensus at his WR33 ADP. Even so, I still don’t anticipate drafting much Ridley this season.
