Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson enters his third season and has averaged nearly 16 touches per game up to this point in his career. Austin Ekeler has replaced Antonio Gibson as the other member of this committee, leaving fantasy football managers with a decision to make.
Is it wise to label Robinson as the leader of this backfield or is there enough doubt that drafting either of these backs comes with more risk than potential reward?
Brian Robinson Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 196 (169 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 993
- Rushing TDs: 5
- Receptions: 27
- Receiving Yards: 254
- Receiving TDs: 3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Robinson This Year?
I like to load up on stability in the early rounds because you’re drafting elite players and they all carry upside. In doing so, I love targeting some ambiguous backfield in the back half of drafts, and this situation would certainly qualify as such.
Brian Robinson evening the score up in Philly for the Commanders (+350 ML)pic.twitter.com/iZxNzVIUb7
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) October 1, 2023
Both Ekeler and Robinson are being drafted in that Round 9-10 range after the first 30 or so backs are off the board. I think that’s nuts.
Yes, Ekeler is the one with the impressive fantasy resume and has won you leagues in the past. That’s helpful if you’re playing in a reverse dynasty league that rewards you for past performance. Considering I just made up that format, I’m going to assume that is not the case and that you are drafting players to help you this season.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football RB Busts 2024: De’Von Achane and Josh Jacobs Headline Options Not Worth Their Price
I’m going to heavily lean on my expected-point metric to demonstrate the trajectory of these two backs: this stat looks at every single opportunity (rush or target) a player gets in a given year and assigns a value that is calculated based on NFL RB average production from that spot on the field.
In short, it tells us what an average NFL back would do with a specific role and how our studied player did when compared to those numbers.
Ekeler Production Compared To Expectation
- 2017-19: +23.5%
- 2020-22: +14.2%
- 2023: -21.1%
Your eyes didn’t lie to you last season, Ekeler simply wasn’t himself and now he finds himself in a role without certainty. NFL coaches don’t use my expected-points metric to make decisions, but these numbers suggest that there is no decision to be made. Here’s your full list of RBs that had 150+ carries, 40+ targets, and overachieved expectations by at least 10% last season:
- Christian McCaffrey: +23.0%
- Robinson: +15.2%
- Breece Hall: +13.4%
- Kyren Williams: +11.4%
The industry is suggesting that we have a committee, but that might be holding onto the past. Even if Ekeler rebounds from a disastrous 2023, he’s a long shot to be nearly as efficient as Robinson and this team is motivated to go with the younger option in an effort to build stability around a quarterback that they hope is the face of their franchise.
Robinson’s growth as a pass catcher last season was a pleasant surprise and has me thinking he can handle a 15-18-touch role in this offense, something that would be a bargain in the second half of the draft.
Robinson’s Pass Catching (2023 / 2022)
- Routes per game: 14.5 / 6.9
- Targets per route: 19.7% / 14.5%
Coming into draft season, I thought Ekeler was simply going to be a fade for me and I’d be done with this backfield. At cost, however, Robinson’s profile is one I want regular exposure to. He’s exactly the type of low-risk, high-reward running back that makes sense for all builds in all formats.
Jason Katz’s Analysis of Robinson’s Fantasy Value
- 2023 Recap: Robinson Jr. surprised many by being one of the better fantasy values at running back last season. Despite being an afterthought in drafts, he finished inside the top 24 RBs, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game.
- Improved Efficiency: Robinson showed marked improvement in his efficiency, averaging 5.1 yards per touch and leading all RBs in yards per reception (10.2). His increased target share and efficiency in the passing game contributed significantly to his fantasy success.
- 2024 Outlook: Robinson’s role as a lead runner seems more secure, but there are concerns about his workload and target share with the arrival of Austin Ekeler. While Robinson may handle more carries, Ekeler’s presence could reduce his receiving opportunities.
- ADP Value: Robinson is currently being drafted as the RB32, 94th overall. This is a reasonable ADP for a player with his role, though I have him ranked slightly lower at RB34. He should provide consistent RB3 value with touchdown upside.
- Challenges: The addition of Jayden Daniels at quarterback could limit Robinson’s touchdown potential, as mobile QBs often vulture rushing scores. While Robinson’s efficiency may remain high, his overall fantasy upside could be capped.
- Final Verdict: Robinson is a solid value at his current ADP, but the presence of Ekeler and Daniels may limit his ceiling. He’s a safe pick for RB3 production but lacks the upside to significantly outperform his draft position.
