Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson has generated as much hype as anyone in the fantasy football industry this summer, and for good reason. His versatile skill set is exactly what has led teams to glory in the past, but it cannot be overlooked that he was limited to just four appearances as a rookie and that his style of play will encourage more contact than most.
As Richardson’s stock continues to rise, how much draft capital is too much to spend on this unique talent?
Anthony Richardson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 351
- Passing Yards: 3,331
- Passing TDs: 17
- Interceptions: 6
- Rushing Yards: 769
- Rushing TDs: 13
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Richardson This Year?
There’s simply no denying that Richardson has tons of potential to bring to the table in 2024. We essentially got 12 quarters of him during his rookie season. He gave us three passing scores (two coming from 35+ yards out) and four rushing tallies (two goal-line touchdowns and two coming from 15+ yards).
Anthony Richardson’s shoulder appears to be just fine. pic.twitter.com/PhED5CgzBE
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) June 28, 2024
I have no doubt that the passing numbers will develop with time. We’ve seen bowling ball type of quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts come to mind) improve their arms by learning how to leverage how defenses try to limit their production on the ground, something I expect to see from Richardson as this season wears on.
It’s the running numbers that are a cheat code for our game. Over the past three seasons, 13 times has a quarterback scored at least 330 fantasy points. That threshold has been as good as any when it comes to labeling a recent season at the position as elite.
Average Rushing Numbers for Those QBs
- 458 rushing yards
- Six rushing touchdowns
Now, those numbers are skewed by some big seasons from Lamar Jackson and others, but the rushing floor for these elite seasons has been a common thread. In all 13 of those instances, the high-scoring QB rushed for multiple touchdowns. And in 11 of them, the signal-caller cleared 240 rushing yards (the two exceptions are future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers).
Those are bars I expect Richardson to clear by mid-October, opening him up to a floor/ceiling combination that threatens the top tier. The Colts owned a top-10 offensive line last season in terms of pressure rate allowed and rushing yards gained before first contact. Not bad for a team that saw its two primary options (Richardson and Jonathan Taylor) miss a total of 20 games, thus giving the unit less room for error.
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The Colts elected to bring back Michael Pittman Jr. and draft Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Combine those two with Alec Pierce’s upside (15.2 yards per catch during his career) and the pedigree of 2023 third-round pick Josh Downs, and Richardson has a fine group of receivers to elevate his passing numbers significantly.
I think that’s enough talent to overcome a concerning trend that we saw last season. This note was impacted by a historically down season in terms of QB health, but the point remains: of the top 10 producing PPR RBs, only one (Christian McCaffrey) saw his quarterback finish as a top-10 player at the position.
I’m just as in on Taylor as I am on Richardson, so a trend like that is moderately concerning. But, for me, this is a top-10 scoring offense that should allow both to thrive.
Richardson’s ADP currently resides in the early fifth round. He’s trending away from Tier 3 (Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Dak Prescott) and into Tier 2 (C.J. Stroud), a price tag that is nearing a selling point for me. As good as I think Richardson can be, we do have to take into consideration physical pains as well as growing pains.
The peaks are going to be special, but to pay off a price tag like this, the valleys are going to have to be rare. If he falls into that pocket passer tier, I’m in. But with how this is trending, I’d be more likely to pay up a round for Jackson or fall back 2-3 rounds and grab Kyler Murray. Those are two QBs with a rushing-heavy profile, but ones that, in my eyes, offer a better risk/reward bet at cost.