Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen has aged like fine wine through 11 NFL seasons, but he’s missed 11 games over the past two seasons after a five-year run of good health. As the veteran presence on a developing offense, what does 2024 look like for one of fantasy football‘s most consistent producers?
Keenan Allen’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 227 (137 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 90
- Receiving Yards: 1,008
- Receiving TDs: 6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Allen This Year?
Generally speaking, a veteran switching teams for the first time in his career with significant target competition isn’t how I like to invest early draft capital. That train of thought holds here to a degree, but if I want exposure to a receiver in this offense, Allen’s the guy.
HOW DID KEENAN ALLEN CATCH THIS?
Allen Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115) âś…pic.twitter.com/vGWuUFC98E https://t.co/3kjISSMXrE
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 7, 2023
What can’t he do?
Allen’s efficiency from the slot over the past two seasons is 26.5% better than the two years prior, and if you think DJ Moore is going to bump him to a more perimeter-based role, that’s a spot where Allen is gaining comfort late in his NFL life.
Percentage of targets that have come 15+ yards downfield
- 2023: 24.0%
- 2022: 21.3%
- 2020: 18.5%
- 2019: 14.3%
In a career that has spanned over a decade, two of Allen’s four most efficient fantasy seasons have come in each of the past two years. And while he left a talented signal-caller this offseason, the upside of Allen’s new situation trumps what he had access to 12 months ago.
Of course, there’s the fact that Allen is a 32-year-old player who has missed 11 games over the past two seasons. When you combine that with the franchise change, I understand why his stock has dipped a bit during the draft process. Nevertheless, I’m going to embrace the unknown and make him my most rostered Bears weapon this season.
Moore was with Chicago last season, but all that does is tell us how he looks in blue and orange. A team led by Justin Fields and one led by Caleb Williams will be night and day, making his monster 2023 season something I’m hardly weighing.
Moore is a very good receiver, but I don’t think it’s fair to say at the level of certainty that the ADPs suggest that he is the Bears’ best option in 2024. We have Allen and Moore projected within 20 PPR points this season, and I think that’s the right way to enter the season.
I’m as stuck in the spreadsheets as anyone, but sometimes, we have to embrace uncertainty. I can give you all of the metrics you want, but at the end of the day, we don’t yet know how (A) Williams will look at the professional level or (B) which receiver will have his attention most consistently.
I’m not suggesting it’s a one-for-one comparison, but Daniel Jones started as a rookie in 2019, a season in which the New York Giants brought in a veteran receiver. That year, his top two receivers (Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate) were separated by just 0.34 PPR fantasy points per game. For the record, the WR3 that season finished roughly 20% behind the top two options.
If this situation plays out anything like that, Allen will be the superior value.